If there were any doubts about the form Bradley Wiggins was carrying into the 2012 edition of the Tour de France, they were answered on the stage 9 individual time trial.
Wiggins had a superb ride, adding a huge chunk of time to his lead over Evans, who while still in second place, now trails by 1:53. The first rest day of the tour is likely a day of reflection and strategy for Cadel Evans. He surely realises what obstacles lie between him and yellow in Paris, but he’s far from defeated.
The objective for Evans and BMC coming into the last two-thirds of the tour must be not only to make up the current time gap to Wiggins, but also build a buffer heading into the penultimate stage of the tour, an even longer ITT. So how’s he to do it?
Evans has already demonstrated that he’s not shy about attacking Wiggins on climbs. He will need to continue to do so at every opportunity in hopes of cracking him. Protecting the yellow jersey so early in the tour is certainly going to make itself felt on Sky, and BMC needs to be there to capitalise on their fatigue. So far, Evans hasn’t been able to drop Wiggins, but with longer and steeper climbs to come, he must put as much pressure on the yellow jersey as possible.
Going uphill is not the only place where Evans can gain time on the yellow jersey. He has already demonstrated in the Dauphiné that he can gain time going downhill and he’ll have to do more of the same. I can see Evans forming an alliance with Nibali, who himself is a daredevil descender, and putting a lot of pressure on Sky and Wiggins on technical descents.
Having a superb first ITT was a blessing and a curse for Wiggins and Sky. While he now holds a commanding lead, many teams also realise that their GC ambitions will likely not come to fruition. The byproduct of this realisation is that Sky will have to do most of the work while Wiggins holds yellow because they have the most to lose, and other teams are less likely to help out in instances where work would otherwise have been shared among several teams.
Evans needs to find at least 4 minutes on Wiggins between now and Stage 19 ITT. Not only does he need to make up the current deficit, but he also needs at least a 2-minute cushion going into the 53km ITT.
The silver lining for BMC right now is that the race plan should be simple – attack wherever and whenever possible. If they can crack Sky and Wiggins, Evans has a superb chance to take the yellow jersey. If they cannot, however, Wiggins will likely carry it to Paris.
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