Today’s Group 2 Hobartville Stakes marks the return to racing for most of Australia’s brightest emerging stars with Pierro as the major drawcard. We’ll have live updates before, during and after the 4.30pm AEDT start time.
The field looks to be one of the strongest in the history of the race, with most runners avoiding All Too Hard who will be running in the Australian Guineas 20 minutes before the start of this race.
Despite what the betting markets show, today’s result is not as clear cut as suggested. Most runners in this field are returning first up from spells and as three year olds, the past few months will have provided some with major development growths, and others not so much.
There are no accurate formlines linking this field together so it leaves the door open for a shock upset if Pierro isn’t at the top of his game, which we cannot be sure he is.
The Golden Slipper winner enters today with just two blemishes on his perfect record, both at the hands of All Too Hard.
It is likely Pierro will start odd-on favourite having never been defeated in Sydney. A son of Lonhro, Pierro will be seeking to win the race his sire did 11 years ago.
Showers are expected throughout the day and a wet track should suit Pierro. With one barrier trial before running first up today, he comfortably extended in his stride to finish six lengths ahead of the next horse It’s a Dundeel, who will also be making his autumn return today.
After disappointing in the VRC Derby where he started favourite, It’s a Dundeel still looks to be the best staying three year old going around.
He’ll start at the long odds but that is no reflection on his talent. The 1400m trip today looks to be a bit too short for him but if he has a good run he’ll win his next start, ideally at 1600m or beyond.
The most obvious threat to Pierro looks to be his stable mate, Proisir, who also went to the Cox Plate as a three-year-old last season.
Proisir’s most recent barrier trial was equally as impressive as Pierro’s. It’s difficult to assess where Proisir is in his development since this will be just his second preparation while the other big chances in the race are entering their third, but he’s definitely one to watch.
Unbeaten colt Rebel Dane enters the race having come through the Group 2 Royal Sovereign Stakes which has previously been a reasonable form indicator for the Hobartville Stakes. Lonhro won both in 2002, as did Mutawaajid in 2007.
For Rebel Dane to be a winning chance, he’ll need to the race to be run slower than expected but that seems unlikely with Proisir expected to shoot forward from gate 11 and set a fast tempo.
Like Rebel Dane, Mulaazem has more question marks than ticks despite coming through a strong lead up race. Winning the Group 3 Autumn Stakes defeating VRC Derby winner Fiveandahalfstar and runner up Super Cool, the Peter Moody runner has claims on favouritism in this race.
However, neither Fiveandahalfstar nor Super Cool has taken on Pierro or Proisir so Mulaazem’s form is more seductive than accurate.
The Darley stable cannot be discounted today with three runners in the field. The shortest priced of the trio will be Tatra who took out the Group 2 Sandown Guineas in his last start.
Somewhat going under the radar during the spring due to Pierro, All Too Hard and It’s a Dundeel headlining the three-year-old class, Darley’s three-year-olds have been returning some blistering turns of foot.
Darley trainer Peter Snowdon’s standing as a trainer of two and three year olds has been steadily increasing over the past two years and his runners will win a few of the Group 1’s this season.
At high odds, Snowden’s runner Proverb is the pick of the longshots to figure in the placings. He’s consistently run behind Tatra throughout the spring and doesn’t lose by much. By Commands, his breeding and previous form shows him to be an excellent first up runner and 1400m looks ideal for him.
Overall, this not the best betting race of the day with all of the top chances resuming today first up. Pierro will start favourite but he’s not as good of a lock as the early markets suggest and there is better value elsewhere.
Due to the lack of uncertainty of just how taxing Pierro’s big spring campaign was, I’m going to reserve a few coins for a blowover.
Tips
1. Proverb
2. Pierro
3. Proisir
4. It’s a Dundeel
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