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Run down the Flemington straight, the Newmarket Handicap is the sprinter’s Melbourne Cup. Join us for live race updates and blog as we build up to the nation’s premier sprint at 3.15pm AEDT.
When assessing the 2013 Newmarket (1200m, Group One), I think the most important thing to consider is four of the nation’s best sprinters aren’t contesting this race. They are Black Caviar, Hay List, Mental (exported to Dubai) and Sea Siren.
Australia is known for its depth of sprinters so this Newmarket field is still chock full of quality but because the absolute cream of Australian sprint racing is missing, it presents an opportunity for an up-and-comer to win this race.
As far as I’m concerned, there are only two likely outcomes in the Newmarket – a victory by Moment Of Change or a victory by Better Than Ready. Regardless of which of the two colts it is, the winner will be a horse on the rise.
There are another three horses more than capable of winning this Newmarket – the top-weight Luckygray, the undefeated Barakey and the world star Ortensia – but they will need to overcome extreme obstacles in the form of weight and history and as such, I’m discarding them as genuine chances.
No horse has won the Newmarket first-up from a spell since Polycrates in 1917. Luckygray and Barakey, both West Australians, are first-up in this race.
In racing, history so rarely lies. It’s why the legacy of horses like Phar Lap, Kingston Town and Makybe Diva are rock solid years after their retirement.
What makes it tougher for these visitors is that Luckygray is better suited over a middle distance than a sprint and Barakey missed his key lead-up, the Oakleigh Plate (1100m, G1), after being scratched at the barriers.
Their task is made tougher because they must lug 58kgs and 56kgs respectively – no easy task.
Ortensia won in Dubai and England at the top level in straight races last year but she was disappointing in her Australian return in the Oakleigh Plate when 11th.
The Scone-trained mare will need to improve many lengths on that run – and while capable of doing so – she isn’t aided by the hefty impost of 56.5.kgs.
Remember Black Caviar broke the weight-carrying record for mares when she won this race with 58kgs in 2011. Quite obviously, Ortensia is handicapped on her best form. And to win, she must find it.
I can’t see any other horse winning. So we are left with Moment Of Change and Better Than Ready. I rate both of extremely high.
Moment Of Change was outstanding when runner-up to Black Caviar in the Black Caviar Lightning last month.
From my position in the Flemington grandstand, he was closing in on the mare at the death. And this was the race where the long-standing track record fell. His performance was impeccable.
Post-race Peter Moody spoke about the greatness of Black Caviar but when asked about Moment Of Change, he declared the four-year-old a star. And I agree with him. He is a star.
Moment Of Change has won one Group One – the 1400m Sir Rupert Clark (1400m) last spring. He’s second up here with 56.5kgs and he’s the horse to beat.
Better Than Ready is his main danger. He’s never raced down the straight before – an obvious negative – but he worked strongly down the straight at Flemington during the week and has the class and handicap (50.5kg) to win this race.
Better Than Ready, a Queenslander trained by Kelly Schweida, was prepared for this race with two races in Brisbane.
He was second in his first-up return before bolting in at Listed level in his latest outing.
Last prep, he broke the Randwick track record over 1200m and his form stacks up nicely through gun three-year old filly Nechita (who won the 1200m Group One Coolmore at this track on Derby Day).
In my mind, Better Than Ready has always promised top-level ability and on Saturday he can record his first Group One victory. I can’t envisage him not going close.
So who to tip?
Well I walked away from Black Caviar Day awestruck by the great mare and certain that Moment Of Change would be winning the Newmarket with even luck. And I can’t go past him today. He gets my nod.
Better Than Ready to nab second with a big gap to Barakey in third.
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