After a profitable night on the punt at Mooney Valley, below is my preview for the big card of racing at Warwick Farm.
Race 5
Speed – Fair, every runner should gets its chance
Overs – Miss Stellabelle (Rated $4.50) Embark (Rated $9.00)
Unders – Choice Words (Rated $4.20) Arinosa (Rated $7.50) Cathay Lady (Rated $11.00)
Tough race as punters have to try and line up the form of those horses who are resuming.
Gee I think Embark is a big price. This horse was super winning with the big weight first up at the Valley and it has proven in the past it can match it with the classy types.
I loved the way it boxed on to the line on that ocassion and with the big weight drop, it gets in very well here. Brown takes the ride and the horse goes well second up.
At the double digit odds, I reckon it is a big value. The rest of the field is very evenly matched and all the favoured runners have little knocks on them. Miss Stellabelle is a query first up.
Choice Words is hard to catch. Arinosa and Cathay Lady are looking for ground. Ladys Angel always givers them a start. Take a wide first leg in the quaddie as insurance.
Exotics – Box Trfiecta – 1,2,4,5,6,7
Confidence – 70%
Suggested Bet – 1 x 3 units Embark E/W; 2 units Trifecta.
Quaddie – 1,2,4,5,6,7
Race 6
Speed – Looks fair, every runner should get its chance.
Overs – Ferlax (Rated $9.00) Its A Dundeel (Rated $6.50)
Unders – Proisir (Rated $3.50) Rebel Dane (Rated $3.20) Proverb (Rated $31.00)
The feature race of the day and I reckon you can again narrow the field down to a couple of horses. I am going to with Proisir who I thought was outstanding first up in the Hobartville.
No doubt in the world that he needed that run and despite a lack of fitness, the effort to box on hard to the line was commendable. The key to his chances today is not only the rise to the mile but also that key rival, Rebel Dane has drawn an inside gate.
Despite running so close to Pierro last start, the Gary Portelli trained runner will need a ton of luck from the inside gate with its ‘get back, run on’ style.
Its A Dundeel run very well out of the same race, attacking the line last in the piece but I think he is one run away from producing his best. Nevertheless, expect him to be fighting out the finish. Ferlax won a very, very weak Australian Guineas last start but has to be respected with the likes of Hvasstan and Phillipi coming out of that race and running well last night at the Valley.
Sacred Falls is a must for quaddie players as it shows its best form over this distance range and is the value.
Prepared to risk Tougher Than Ever in this class and off the wide draw. Proverb is one to watch from a Derby prospective, its run first up was very encouraging.
Exotics – Trifecta – Standout 3,6,7 with 1,5,9
Confidence – 70%
Suggested Bet – 3 units on Proisir to win – I think he is good value to beat Rebel Dane. 2 units Trifecta
Quaddie – 1,3,6,7
Race 7
Speed – HOT! Those just off the pace look suited.
Overs – Temple Of Boom (Rated $13.00) Golden Archer (Rated $11.00) Second Effort (Rated $26.00) Snitzerland (Rated $4.20) Mrs Onassis (Rated $11.00)
Unders – Hay List (Rated $3.00) Tiger Tees (Rated $6.00) Howmuchdoyouloveme (Rated $21.00) Decision Time (Rated $31.00)
Arguably the best race of the day at Warwick Farm today and there is plenty of value on offer. I am going to go with the Melbourne form and go with Golden Archer on the each way. I cannot believe the price for this horse.
The 1000m is a specialist distance and you only have to have one look at its record to notice that it races best over this trip. You may look at the first up run, a nearly six length 3rd to Black Caviar as not good enough to be competitive here.
However, that race was run in track record time and I have no doubt that the horse who finished second, Moment Of Change, should have won in the Newmarket if it had not missed the start. Nolen comes up and if he can overcome to wide gate, he will take some beating.
Main danger is Temple Of Boom, another sprint specialist who will have the last crack at them. Mrs Onassis won well in the Oakleigh Plate and despite coming back 100m and rising in weight, I would expect her to be competitive. Snitzerland is a massive threat if she can produce the form she showed last preparation.
Tiger Tees will be up on the speed and with the fresh legs, will be hard to catch One for the battlers is Second Effort. Looking for longer? No doubt, but if they ride him quiet with the pace on, he may be able to run right over the top of them. $67 is well worth putting a measly $1 or two on it.
I am going to risk Hay List. Back from the dead, it would be a great story but I am worried on whether it will be able to match up with some of the speedsters first up. Regardless, it has the class and should be right in the mix late.
Exotics – No confidence
Confidence – 75%
Suggested Bet – 1 x 3 units Golden Archer E/W; have something very small on Second Effort.
Quaddie – 1,2,5,6,9,11
Race 8
Speed – Moderate, those on the pace look suited.
Overs – Thy (Rated $5.00)
Unders – Jade Marauder (Rated $7.00) Colorado Claire (Rated $8.00)
Two main chances for mine in this race – Thy and Jade Maruader. I am leaning towards Thy, especially off the good barrier. She ran super first up first up at Flemington in a bunched finish in a race which I think was of a better standard then what she contest today.
She was really working to the line well before getting held up in behind horses for the final 100m. She would never have won, but should have finished much closer. I wouldn’t be surprised if Nolen sat a little closer from the gate with the lack of speed and hopefully she will prove too strong.
The mail keeps coming that Jade Marauder is going well and down in class here today, she will get every chance to breakthrough.
Cassidy booked is a good addition for this horse and she looks to be wanting the mile. With that being said, she is on her last chance and will enter the sack book if she fails to perform.
Exotics – Box Quinella – 4 / 5 / 6 / 7
Confidence – 75%
Suggested Bet – 2 x 3 units Thy Each Way – the $6.00 on offer looks a juicy price. 2 units Quinella
Quaddie – 6 – reduce the stake, go wide early and hope that Thy is able to win.
Have you ever tried your skills in a Racing daily fantasy competition? Put your best picks to the test for one day and see if you can scoop the pot with Draftstars. Looking for great odds on racing and sport? PlayUp is your best bet. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.
Without a Fight completed the rare Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup double on Tuesday as star jockey Mark Zahra went back-to-back in the big one after…
The race that stops the nation is upon us again. Every horse in the Melbourne Cup has reasons they can win, and reasons they…
Those who want to have a really big collect on Australia’s greatest race, without risking too much, have to look at the exotic bets.
While most of the attention is on Ciaron Maher and David Eustace's Gold Trip, there's no reason why stablemate Future History cannot upstage him.
Champion jockey Damien Oliver is quietly confident his Melbourne Cup mount Alenquer will be passed fit to give him a farewell ride in the…
Melbourne Cup day is here again, and it’s never anything less than exciting. The Cup itself will of course be full of drama and…
