Tonight is another night of racing highlighted by the return of the mighty mare, Black Caviar, at Mooney Valley. Below is my preview of the card:
Race 1
I am with Rambert to kick us off to a winning start tonight. Since coming back from a spell, this horse has been outstanding, collecting two very impressive wins.
The win last start was very strong as he dictated the terms up front and made it impossible for the rest of the field to catch him.
That tactical speed is what will give him every chance to win tonight, especially with the rail out 2m.
Despite the big weight, You Think So has to be regarded as the danger. Forget his last start effort from the carpark draw in the Adelaide Cup, he had to go back and that gave him no hope of winning.
Toranos is an interesting runner off the back of a good win last start and he is a must include in the multiples.
Suggested Bet – Moderate win bet on Rambert to win – should lead from barrier two and prove hard to catch
Confidence – 75%
Race 2
Tough race but I thought the run of Major Coup last start would be good enough to put him right in the race.
The way he attacked the line behind Word Gets Around was very encouraging and this distance should really suit.
He has shown some good staying ability last preparation and if he repeat that turn of foot he showed over a mile last start, I’d expect him to be hard to hold out.
Twin Soul is the obvious danger after running so well first up over this trip last start. No doubt he would have come on fitness wise from that run and with Williams sticking, you have to seriously respect his chances.
Fresh Light won well here last start and has claims along with Darwin, who is rock hard fit.
Suggested Bet – Small win bet on Major Coup. Keep an eye on Twin Soul, I think it is a nice type.
Confidence – 70%
Race 3
The way I have it speed mapped, I don’t see a ton of speed on paper and for that reason, I am with Flamberge. I thought this horse was a pretender until its last start effort when it ran out of its skin to finish a close second to Crystal Web.
Its sectionals in that race were very encouraging and with its tactical speed, I would expect it to push forward and potentially lead here tonight.
Drawn well and I think he will be able to beat the main danger Crystal Web home, especially with the weight swing.
Agueda was a forgive run last time out when it forced into the worse part of the ground and I am expecting some vast improvement from it tonight.
The reports from the Griffiths barn are all positive after Angelic Lights’ last start flop and on its previous form, you have to respect its chances. Chosen Moment and Genralife are must include multiple hopes.
Suggested Bet – Flamberge on the each way looks the play and I’ll have small saver on Agueda.
Confidence – 70%
Race 4
You’re So Good was the only filly to take on the boys in the Australian Guineas and she was outstanding, closing hard late in the race to finish a commendable second.
With no speed in this race and back again her own sex, I would expect Vlad Duric to push forward on her today from the outside gate and dictate the terms.
If she gets a soft lead, she will be very hard to beat because her form is simply above and beyond the rest of these in this race.
Alzora was very good last start after a wide run but will be playing for luck with her get back style. Summerbliss is another who will need some luck, but it will pushing its case late.
Don’t mind Kazanluk at the value and it should improve out immensely here tonight. Hai Lil is a must be exotic players.
Suggested Bet – You’re So Good looks a good thing and I’ll be having a strong win bet on her
Confidence – 85%
Race 5
They have been running very quick times of late in these 955m races and this should be no exception with these speedsters tonight.
On class, the two at the top of the weights should beat the rest and at the weights and prices, I am with the Stephen Brown-trained Canali.
This horse has raced very well since coming back from a spell, finishing close up behind Avoid Lightning before boxing on well last start behind Isabella Snowflake.
Off the good draw, I’d expect Forbes to park him right up on the speed and hopefully with the 3kg claim, he can out sprint the rest.
Kulgrinda is an obvious threat and despite her big weight she has to be respected with her fresh stats and her record at the trip. Fab Fevola, King Cotton and Vatican are all in good form and are quaddie inclusions.
Suggested Bet – Moderate win bet on Canali
Confidence – 70%
Quaddie – 1,2,3,6,7
Race 6
Super race and I think we can play the race around two horses here. I like Spirit Song to win.
She just keeps knocking on the door this preparation with two outstanding runs highlighted by her close second to Bonaria last start.
She is a classy mile mare who will get every possible chance at the weights and from the good barrier.
I would expect Williams to get her midfield and if she can run up to her effort last start, she will be hard to beat. Danger for mine is Tarvanelle.
Gee, she is hard to catch but I think she has plenty of upside off the back of her first up win.
My speed map has her getting a relatively easy time up front and I think she can give a good kick at the turn and give a great show at odds.
Hi Belle, Secret Liason, There’s Only One and Lights Of Heaven all go into the quaddie.
Suggested Bet – Moderate win bet on Spirit Song to win with a place bet on Tarvanelle.
Confidence – 70%
Quaddie – 1,2,4,5,6
Race 7
With Black Caviar one out in the last leg of the quaddie, this is the race where we can find some value to hopefully increase the returns.
I have the speed fairly strong here and for that reason, I’ll be favouring the swooping horses including Too Deadly and City Of Song.
Despite the wide barrier, Too Deadly is a massive price. Magrow followers would know that I have big wraps on this horse and it has raced as well as it ever this preparation.
Since joining the new stable, every run has been a tale of a hard luck stories with interference and blocked passages leading to forgivable runs.
You never know, this wide barrier may be a blessing in disguise as Winks should be able to get him to the outside for one final burst. Look for it late.
City Of Song is another who is over the odds. The last start effort was very good and with some strong form lines and a senior jockey aboard, I would expect her to be right in among it late.
Champagne Shisha, Mecir and three at big odds – Two Hills, Dead End and Bashan will go into my quaddie.
Bashan is a smokey and I think he can run a cheeky race.
Suggested Bet – 1 x 2 units each way on Too Deadly, City Of Song seems to be well found and may be too short now. Small win saver.
Confidence – 70%
Quaddie – 4,5,8,10,11,12,14
Race 8
I am looking at this race purely from a punting perspective and while I’ll be going one out with Black Caviar in my quaddie – I do like Spirit of Boom in the ‘favourite out’ markets.
I have come to the conclusion that this horse does not have a killer punch in the big Group 1 races but against the rest of this lot the $3.90 looks a very juicy price.
I thought Luckygrey was disappointing in the Newmarket last start and so I would like to see some improvement before jumping all over him. Karuta Queen and Fawkner will be there abouts towards the end of the race.
Suggested Bet – Win bet on Spirit Of Boom in the ‘fav out’ markets.
Confidence – 80% on Spirit Of Boom; 100% on Black Caviar
Quaddie – 6
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