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The Spring Classics are done and dusted for 2013, and the Giro d’Italia is looming into clear sight. The form lines are being drawn, the favourites are being discussed.
Let’s take a look at the likely contenders for the first Grand Tour of the year.
Sure, three weeks is a long time, and form in the last week matters more than form in the first week, but hey – if this sort of speculation is wrong then I don’t want to be right.
Here are my first five favourites.
Ryder Hesjedal
As reigning Giro champion, Hesjedal gets the honour of first mention.
The tallest (and first) Canadian to win a Grand Tour, Hesjedal pinched the win from under the nose of diminutive non-Canadian Joaquim Rodriguez by a mere 16 seconds on the final (time trial) stage of the thrilling 2012 race.
You might describe Hesjedal’s 2013 form as ‘under the radar’, but his focus has clearly been on the Giro, and impressive rides supporting Dan Martin in the Volta a Catalunya and in this week’s Liege-Bastogne-Liege show his form is building.
Indeed, the ambitious solo drive on Sunday was the best indication yet that Hesjedal’s confidence and form are on track.
There has been some discussion about whether the 2013 Giro course is a honey trap for Bradley Wiggins, with 87km of time trialling. Arguably, this would also suit Hesjedal just as well.
He is very strong against the clock, and his 2012 win demonstrated he climbs exceptionally well for a man of his size (188cm).
Joaquim Rodriguez
Hesjedal’s closest rival in 2012, Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez, had the kind of year that most riders would dream about, finishing as the UCI’s number one-ranked rider, winning two monuments (Fleche-Wallonne and Giro di Lombardia), with two Grand Tour podiums.
But somehow it still seemed like his year was a failure, falling agonisingly short of both the Giro and the Vuelta a Espana victories, after leading both races for long periods.
Rodriguez has started 2013 in ominous form, culminating in a near-victory in Liege-Bastogne-Liege, second overall in Catalunya, and fifth in Tirreno Adriatico.
A nuggety little bulldog, Rodriguez can climb with the best, and specialises in launching vicious bursts of acceleration approaching the summit, a tactic which lends itself to small time gaps, stage victories, and time bonuses.
Did I mention there are six major summit finishes?
Did I also mention there are 20-second time bonuses for winning stages?
Suddenly, despite his relative weakness against the clock, Rodriguez looks a huge threat.
Bradley Wiggins
Sir Bradley Wiggins, Master of France, Knight of London, King of Tenerife.
OK, I made that last one up, but the biggest talking point for Britain’s mod on wheels this year has been his extended training camp in Tenerife, where he has presumably spent his days yoked to a power meter, being flogged by stylishly dressed robots (if you believe the wags on Twitter).
Wiggo’s form hasn’t looked compelling, being well beaten in this week’s Giro del Trentino by rival Vincenzo Nibali.
Admittedly, Wiggins suffered from a mechanical on the race’s final climb, which certainly cost him some time, but he looked less than fully convincing.
Underwhelming performances earlier in the season, some extra body weight, and some mixed public messages about his Tour de France ambitions gave some the impression Wiggins wasn’t fully committed to the Giro.
Wiggins’ absence from Tirreno-Adriatico and Paris-Nice didn’t increase the clarity around his form, although a fifth at Volta a Catalunya was promising.
The ability of his Sky team to control races may irritate some fans, but there’s no doubt it gives a tempo rider like Wiggins an incredible advantage.
If he’s at his best, I would consider Wiggins as outright favourite to win the Giro.
However, I’m not convinced he is near the untouchable form he carried through 2012, and I still get a sense he feels the team decision to give Tour de France leadership to Chris Froome was a snub.
I’m going to speculate like a Lehman Brothers executive here and say that Wiggins’ Giro will hinge on whether he has a good first week: a bit of bad luck could really shake his commitment to the race, and then it’s all over.
Conversely, a good start in stage two’s team time trial, and he might be flying by the second week.
Vincenzo Nibali
Astana’s marquee off-season signing, Vincenzo Nibali, has arguably the best form line of the major favourites, following a convincing overall victory in the Giro del Trentino.
Nibali looks in superb condition, and his win at Tirreno-Adriatico against, well, almost everyone who matters, showed he is in similar form to that which took him to the Tour de France podium in 2012.
In fact, Nibali looks better than he did last year. He climbs like a rat up a drainpipe and descends like a fish down an s-bend.
The move to Astana gives him stronger support in the mountains than he had at Liquigas-Cannondale, with teammates including Paolo Tiralongo, Fabio Aru, Valerio Agnoli, and Janez Brajkovic.
The key question for Nibali is whether his time trialling has improved enough.
In the final stage of Tirreno-Adriatico he dropped 11 seconds to Chris Froome, which sounds reasonable until you realise it was only a 9.2km course.
Extended to a 55km individual effort, you could easily see him dropping a minute to the likes of Wiggins and Hesjedal.
Cadel Evans
Cadel was well beaten in the Giro del Trentino last week. The key stage was stage two, won by Sky’s Kosta Siutsou.
While Wiggins and Nibali dueled each other on the final climb, Evans looked uncomfortable, was dropped early and coughed up 45 seconds to the pair.
They say you should never write off a champion, but to these jaded eyes it looks like Cadel’s Grand Tour contender days are done.
The fan in me desperately hopes I’m wrong. But the realist says Evans no longer possesses the ability to hold the wheels of the pure climbers, and his time trialling ability has slipped just enough that he can’t win back the time he loses.
Perhaps it’s age, perhaps it’s fatherhood and shifting priorities. Perhaps he’s still recovering from the illness that ruined his 2012 season. I don’t know. But I will be surprised if he’s on the podium in Brescia.
There are, of course, several others who I like the look of for the Giro. I’ll try to cover them next week, if my colleagues don’t beat me to it. Feel free to speculate on my speculations below.
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