As much as it will be a pressing concern in a couple of months’ time, the question of who will or won’t be leading Team Sky come June 29 in Corsica is getting rather tedious.
The 96th edition of the Giro d’Italia is just days away – but still the press (and not merely the British media: even Gazzetta dello Sport, the Giro’s crib sheet, is at it) seem more concerned with the on-going internal spat between Sir Bradley Wiggins and Chris Froome chez Sky than they are with discussing Ryder Hesjedal’s potential successors for the maglia rosa.
Of course, Hesjedal may surprise everyone (again) by defending his crown.
It’s a scenario that cannot be discounted – although the Canadian has had a quiet season to date and he will enter the race a marked man.
What’s more, the course does not entirely suit him – with his main rivals better in the hills and time trials.
Giro-Tour double for Wiggo?
Time trials are what make this year’s Giro a little bit different than previous years; time trial kilometres – almost 90 of them – are precisely what have lured Wiggins to take to the start in Naples on Saturday.
The 33-year-old won last year’s Tour through a combination of ITT brilliance (he won both) and dogged climbing – plus a little help from his ‘friends’.
Wiggo initially promised to repay his team-mate Froome by supporting him in France this year – but now he has his heart set on an historic Giro-Tour double, much to the chagrin of the man who believes he should be (and is) Sky’s number one rider for the Grande Boucle.
Ironically enough, for all this Sky Tour leadership furore, it could well be a mountain in France – the famous Col du Galibier – that proves decisive in the Giro, with a short 149km stage 15 culminating in a Mont Cenis-Telegraphe-Gabilier hat-trick of French ascents as the race leaves Italian soil for the only time.
To be honest – the Sky leadership fandango doesn’t really doesn’t matter at the moment.
It’s a red herring and sells more papers/ad space than attempted colour pieces about Hesjedal (I pity the poor journalists entrusted with that brief).
The press are merely stirring the pot and trying to provoke a reaction for the sake of column inches.
Anything and everything can happen between now and the Tour – most importantly, we’ll discover who owns the pair of shoulders that will fill out the new Paul Smith-designed pink jersey when the Giro finishes in Brescia on 26th May.
Sky vs sky blue?
Being a man of fashion, Wiggins will have extra motivation to become the first Briton to win the Giro a year after he achieved the same accolade in the Tour.
Instead of debating his leadership credentials for the Tour, the focus should really be on Team Sky and the sky blue shirts of Astana – the team of Italian favourite Vincenzo Nibali.
The Sicilian won the Giro del Trentino a fortnight ago – but we were denied a Giro favourites’ head-to-head in the race’s final stage when Wiggins suffered an untimely mechanical on the last climb to the summit.
Although there are two individual time trials and one team affair on the island of Ischia, the seven summit finishes probably make the route better suited to Nibali than himself. At least, this is what Wiggins says.
“The Giro is his pride and joy,” he said last week, perhaps enjoying a spot of mind games.
“I think there’s a lot at stake at stake for him in this race. He’s the big Italian favourite. He’s trained for this. This is his event. He’s not doing the Tour after so this is his one big objective.”
Wiggins believes Nibali has everything that it takes to win the Giro: climbing and time trialling skills, the ability to descent fast, and a strong team.
Teams will be key – and it will be interesting to see how Wiggins fares in a race without those trusty lieutenants that delivered him to glory last July: Froome and the Australian pair, Richie Porte and Mick Rogers (the latter now at Saxo Bank-Tinkoff).
That said, the Sky team surrounding Wiggins is extremely strong: Colombians Sergio Henao and Rigoberto Uran could be leaders elsewhere, while the experience of Christian Knees, Kanstantsin Siutsou and Danny Pate could prove invaluable.
Add to that Italians Dario Cataldo and Salvatore Puccio (the latter making his Giro debut) and the strength of Xabier Zandio, and Sky clearly have the man power to control the race.
Should they win the team time trial in stage two and propel Wiggins into the pink jersey early on, it will be interesting to see if Sky mimic their tactic from last year’s Tour and wear down their rivals in the mountains.
Nibali will have the Paolo Tiralongo, Fredrik Kessiakoff and Andrey Zeits in support – but it’s worth noting that the Italian failed to take any significant chunks of time from Wiggins in the mountains in last year’s Tour, and although a strong rider against the clock, he will concede time in the two ITTs this May.
Purito – the missing ingredient?
It’s the absence of his 2012 Giro sparing partner, Joaquim Rodriguez, that makes it hard for many writers to focus on the credentials of defending champion Hesjedal.
A man of few words and fewer explosive moments on the saddle, Hesjedal was a popular winner last year – but primarily as a foil to the attacking brilliance of Rodriguez.
You could say his win – a first for Canada in Grand Tours – mirrored that of Australia’s first Tour win by Cadel Evans in 2011 in that it was a victory for hard work and calculation over panache.
I don’t expect Hesjedal to feature too highly this time round – and have set myself up for a huge fall in saying so, especially after discounting the Garmin-Sharp rider’s chances so brazenly prior to last year’s Giro.
While Rodriguez’s absence may conversely make it difficult for Hesjedal to repeat his 2012 heroics, it will certainly irk the race organisers, who were forced to invite 23 teams and not the usual 22 this year in the wake of the Katusha WorldTour status farce earlier in the season.
Having already invited four wildcards – Vini Fantini-Selle Italia, Androni Giocattoli-Venezuela, Bardiani Valvole-CSF Inox and Colombia – affable RCS general director Michele Acquarone was forced to let Katusha in through the back door.
His reward: the Russians not sending a real bona fide GC contender, with Rodriguez deciding to focus his efforts on the Tour this year.
Once again, the bigger race from across the border seems to be stealing all the limelight.
But ignore this – for the Giro promises to be open, unpredictable and exciting from the get-go. It’s become a bit of a cliché to say it, but the Giro often delivers much more of a spectacle than the Tour – which is precisely why the purists are hoping that Sky won’t be able to impose their stranglehold on the race early on.
Evans in terminal decline?
My colleague Tim Renowden has written two excellent posts on Giro favourites and Giro outsiders, so there’s no need for me to delve too much into the chances of the main protagonists.
But I will make a few observations and ask a few questions before signing off.
Tim didn’t mention the Spaniard Benat Intxausti in his list of outsiders. I think it will be the 27-year-old climber who will prove to be Movistar’s main man rather than the 2011 Vuelta winner Juan Jose Cobo.
As for BMC’s Evans and another veteran, Ivan Basso of Cannondale, it is very much the last chance saloon.
Evans has been on a downward spiral ever since winning the Tour in 2011 while Basso has become an infuriatingly ordinary rider since being outed retrospectively for his involvement in Operacion Puerto.
The next few weeks will show whether or not the decline of these two former Grand Tour winners is terminal.
At just 26, Dutchman Robert Gesink certainly has time on his side, but he must overturn a tendency to crash in the opening week of major stage races if he wants to ever make the podium of a Grand Tour.
Three times a top ten finisher in the Vuelta and fifth in the 2010 Tour, Blanco’s Gesink has never ridden the Giro before and he is long due a result that befits his ‘eternal promise’ tag.
With lots written about Colombian cycling of late – especially in the wake of the performances of Sky duo Henao and Uran, plus the in-form Carlos Betancur of Ag2R (all of whom will be racing in Italy) – it will be interesting to see how the Colombia team fare in their debut Grand Tour.
Invited as a wildcard, the team will feature an entirely Colombian roster and will no doubt look to repay the faith of Acquarone and the race organisers with some attacking riding.
Regarding the sprints, Australia’s Matt Goss will hope to pick up some wins for GreenEdge – although young German John Degenkolb (Argos-Shimano) will look to build on his haul of five wins in the Vuelta with an impressive display in Italy.
Should the 24-year-old impress again, then his team selectors will have a headache ahead of the Tour as he vies for a place over equally youthful compatriot Marcel Kittel.
Finally – who do I expect to win? It’s hard to say. Wiggins looks in great shape and is said to be riding better in training than before last year’s Tour.
But there’s something fragile about him – plus the sense that he may not be able to replicate his performance from last July on Italian soil lingers. It would make a good story though – provided he did it off the back of his own performances.
While the heart says Wiggo, the head says Nibali.
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