A couple of weeks ago I lamented that this year’s Tour de France had lost a bit in the race for the podium, with a number of Chris Froome’s rivals suffering poor form or being forced to withdraw from the race.
But despite that, now that most teams have announced their nine riders for the centenary edition of the ‘big lap’, you can’t help notice this race really is where the cream rises to the top.
And while I’m looking forward to seeing if anyone can beat Chris Froome, I’m probably more excited by a couple of other aspects of the race.
The battle for the Green jersey looks utterly compelling.
Mark Cavendish, Andre Greipel, Peter Sagan, John Degenkolb and Marcel Kittel should grab the lion’s share of sprint points, with Sagan my favourite to take the jersey.
Sagan has the strength and form to take advantage in the five undulating/medium mountain stages where, quite simply, none of his rivals can match him.
And it wouldn’t surprise to see Greipel outperform Cav on the flat stages. Ala Robbie McEwen, the Manx Missile has shown he doesn’t need the perfect train to pilot him to victory, but then his train is nowhere near as good as Greipel’s.
Adam Hansen, Greg Henderson, Jurgen Roelandts and Marcel Seiburg have been racing together since the Tour Down Under and exhibit typical German precision, albeit in a Belgian team.
Omega-Pharma Quick Step can boast Gert Steegmans, Peter Velits and Tony Martin, but in terms of a lead-out, the Lotto-Belisol juggernaut is unsurpassed.
I feel sorry for Lotto’s other big gun though. In terms of chasing a podium place, what can Jurgen van den Broeck do with a team so clearly built to chase the green jersey?
With 11 wins between them this season, Argos Shimano flyers Kittel and Degenkolb are good enough to challenge in the finales, but may need a lot of help from the intermediates sprints to stay in contention.
Cavendish, Greipel and Sagan… head to head in July. Wow!
But also, ‘wow’ is the array of young riders who will take this race forward in the next seven to 10 years.
It’s a little disappointing AG2R’s mountain goat Carlos Alberto Betancur won’t be there, despite him placing fifth at the Giro, but maybe he was never meant to figure this July.
Our locals figure prominently in this ‘category’, with Richie Porte, who many think can replicate the Sky 1-2 from last year and claim the runner up spot behind Froome.
Simon Clarke and Cameron Meyer get a chance to lead the Orica-GreenEDGE charge in the high mountains, while Garmin’s Rohan Dennis will take tremendous confidence from his time in yellow at the Criterium du Dauphine and strong performance in the mountains. At just 23, Rohan’s head must be spinning with how his year has developed.
Finally, we have a stellar crop of young French riders coming through. Pierre Rolland (Europcar), newly crowned French National Champion Arthur Vichot (FDJ), his teammates Thibaut Pinot and Jeremy Roy head a list that could also have easily contained 21 year-old spring gun Arnaud Demare, but he didn’t make the cut.
Speaking of teams, much has been made of the line-up Sky would announce, and it hasn’t disappointed. Froome and Porte will be supported by the likes of Geraint Thomas, Edvald Boassan Hagen, British Champion Ian Stannard, plus super domestiques Vasil Kiryienka, and Kanstantsin Siutsou.
And to think Rigoberto Uran Uran (second in the Giro) didn’t get picked!
Sky won’t have it all to themselves though.
With 51 podium places this season including 23 wins (four at the Giro), Movistar have selected a formidable team.
Alejandro Valverde may look like the number one rider but with two-time Tour De Suisse winner Rui Costa alongside him, plus Alexander Quintana (winner Vuelta al Pais Vasco)) and Andrey Amador (8th Tirreno Adriatico, 17th Tour de Suisse), Movistar has options. If all goes to plan, Valverde will be well supported when it counts in high mountains.
Of course, it’s on the ‘bergs where the tension really builds. But ultimately we’ll get the answers we crave?
Can Cadel Evans shake off a brutal Giro and really challenge Froome? He has his six amigos from his 2011 triumph alongside him – Brent Bookwalter, Marcus Burghardt, Amaël Moinard, Steve Morabito, Manuel Quinziato and Michael Schär. And of course there’s Tejay for final push or if Evans can’t keep up.
Clearly Evans has been resting and training since the Giro, and BMC seem to have nailed matters at the selection table, but that Sky team looks super-strong, and you’d have to think Froome and co. will be that crucial percent or two fresher.
The third week is when the Tour will be decided and if Cadel is carrying anything negative from the Giro, this is when it will surface.
Bjarne Riis has ensured his Saxo-Bank Tinkoff diamond Alberto Contador is surrounded by quality; Roman Kreuziger, Sergio Paulinho, Michael Rogers and Nicholas Roche guarantee the Spaniard will be a GC threat but he’ll need to time trial better than he did in the Dauphine.
Similarly, a good outside bet for a podium place, Joaquim Rodriguez has a stellar supporting cast at Katusha including Fleche Wallonne winner Daniel Moreno, Alexander Kristoff and Russian Eduard Vorganov.
Andy Schleck can’t boast of similar support, but we should applaud his decision to ride in July. He may not even make the top 25, but clearly feels he has the condition to finish a three-week race.
His form has slowly been improving this year, but even at the Tour de Suisse Schleck still looked a little under-done for a Grand Tour. Still, even if he quickly drops out of contention, at least we can enjoy watching the man with the noisiest legs in the peloton, Jens Voigt, trying to drag Schleck back to the pointy end of the race.
It’s been an incredible season of cycling, notable for the weather as much as the racing, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if the cold weather struck le Tour either
But even if it did, it would only add to the theatre, because it’s hard to imagine there’ll be a single dud moment over the next three weeks.
Is there still really three days to go?
The Roar’s expert Glenn Mitchell offers his thoughts on the 2013 Tour de France:
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