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2013 Tour de France: stage eleven preview

Can Andre Greipel win Stage 4 of the Tour de France? (Image: Sky).
Roar Guru
9th July, 2013
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Without a prologue to herald the grand départ of the Tour de France, Stage 11 will be the first opportunity the peloton have to test themselves against the clock in “the race against the truth”.

Unlike the Team Time Trial however, there is no where to hide in the Individual Time Trial, as the cyclists rely solely on their own strength, willpower, and time trialling skills.

The rolling 33 kilometre route, from town of Avranches to the beautiful Mont-Saint-Michel, will be more technical then the usual flat time trial stage. The elevation of the road, and therefore gradient, is ever-changing for the first half of the stage.

However, the second half of the stage will certainly favour those with a sound aerodynamic position and the ability to churn a massive gear, as the road descends and flattens out in to the finish at Mont-Saint-Michel.

The shortness of the stage should hopefully limit the time gaps between the General Classification contenders from blowing out too far.

However, during the Criterium du Dauphine, in a flat time trial of similar length, we saw Chris Froome, of Team Sky, decisively distance his rivals by over two minutes.

After failing to close the gap to Froome on Stage 9, the likes of Alejandro Valverde, of Movistar, and Alberto Contador, of Team Saxo-Tinkoff, will be hoping to avoid such a repeat.

With the stage route travelling adjacent to the Normandy coast, and the nearby tidal causeway, the wind could potentially have an affect on the result.

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Without a doubt the riders and their teams will be keeping a cautious eye on the weather conditions for the day.

Should the weather decide to interfere with the stage, the ability to hold a solid aerodynamic position could become essential in the quest for vital minutes and seconds.

Overwhelming favourite to claim the stage victory is, understandably, Tony Martin, of Omega Pharma-Quickstep.

While Martin unfortunately ended Stage 1, which seems so long ago now, in an abysmal condition, he has been looking stronger with each passing day.

With or without interference from the wind, the German should prevail through his sheer power and excellent aerodynamic position.

With Fabian Cancellara, of Radioshack-Leopard, and Bradley Wiggins, of Team Sky, absent from the Tour de France it is hard to see anyone defeating Martin.

However, should the German still be feeling the affects of his Stage 1 crash there are a number of outsiders who could potentially be savouring a rare Tour de France time trial victory.

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Deciding who could take the stage victory in such a situation however, could be a difficult task.

After Team Sky’s domination of the individual time trials during the 2012 Tour de France the eyes of the world will be fixated on Froome, as they watch to see where he finishes.

It is debatable whether he will be challenging for the stage victory, but with Froome appearing to be in superb form and looking at his result in the past twelve months, he cannot be discounted.

With Sylvain Chavanel, Michał Kwiatkowski, and Peter Velits, Omega Pharma-Quickstep may have one of the better bets for the stage, should Martin disappoint.

Having to work for Mark Cavendish in Stage 10 may count against them, as it could for Martin.

However, both the Frenchman and Slovakian have shown an ability to consistently recover and put in another strong performance for the team again the day after.

With uncertainty abounds over just how hard many of the domestiques of the General Classification contenders will commit themselves in Stage 11, it is hard to analyse how well each may do.

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Should the domestiques of the General Classification contenders be let off the leash, Team Sky have a strong set of time trialists with Richie Porte, Geraint Thomas, and Edvald Boasson Hagen.

While BMC could focus on the stage victory with young American, Tejay van Garderen. It may also be unfair to discount the chances of Michael Rogers, of Team Saxo-Tinkoff, and Jonathan Castroviejo, of Movistar.

Other potential outsiders for a decent finishing position include David Millar, Andreas Klöden, Thomas De Gendt, Cameron Mayer, and former Canadian Time Trial Champion Svein Tuft.

Riding for Orica-GreenEDGE, Tuft has marked the stage as a personal target. Throughout the Tour de France he has, reportedly, been preparing himself for a massive performance in the Stage 11 individual time trial.

However, his chances may be hampered after being involved in a crash as the peloton rode in to Stage 10’s finish at Saint-Malo.

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