With the first individual time trial completed, the Tour de France continues its transition to the French city of Lyon and a Sunday showdown on the infamous Mont Ventoux.
To help accomplish the goal of reaching Lyon by road in three days, stage 12 travels 218km from the town of Fougères to the city of Tours. Similar to stage 10, the journey could be quite dull until the race approaches the finish, where the sprint trains will start to form.
The intermediate sprint is the only event of note, arriving 166km in to the stage’s route, or 52km from the finish if you prefer. With the terrain almost perfectly level approaching the line, the sprint will probably be won by the breakaway followed by Andre Greipel, of Lotto-Belisol.
While the German still has a massive 83 point deficit to recoup on Peter Sagan of Cannondale, the contest cannot be declared entirely over until Sagan finishes on the Champs-Élysées.
A technical finish awaits the sprinters in Tours, as the stage ends with two 90-degree turns within the final 1500 metres. Positioning and cornering will be everything heading in to the finishing straight in Tours, as the lead out trains for Greipel, Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, and Matt Goss battle for position at the head of the bunch.
With the second 90-degree right hand turn roughly 400-500m from the finishing line, the advantage will lie with whichever team manages to first swing around the corner, hopefully with their lead out still intact.
The 2013 Tour de France has not quite matched the expectations of Mark Cavendish and Omega Pharma-Quickstep so far. While Cavendish is a world class sprinter able to compete with or without a lead out, we have seen Lotto-Belisol and Argos-Shimano grab a stage victory each when they have swamped Cavendish.
The one victory Cavendish has taken so far in the 2013 Tour de France came when his teammates, particularly Gert Steegmans, positioned him ahead of his two German rivals.
Meanwhile, after their narrow defeat in stage 10, Greipel and Lotto-Belisol will be keen to make amends and claim a second stage victory to match Argos-Shimano.
The strength of the Lotto-Belisol’s lead out for Greipel has been readily apparent, with the German only defeated once when ahead of his rivals. The organisation and experience of the Lotto Belisol sprint train could be the crucial decider between who takes the stage victory, with Greipel the favourite should he be positioned ahead of the his rivals.
After pipping Greipel to the line in thrilling fashion and collecting their second stage victory, Marcel Kittel and Argos-Shimano will be feeling confident headed in to the bunch sprint.
Argos-Shimano arguably have as equally a strong lead out for Kittel as Lotto-Belisol do for Greipel. However, the Argos-Shimano express just are not quite consistent enough to successfully compete with Lotto-Belisol each stage. Should Kittel be near to the wheel of Greipel, we could witness another exhilarating tight sprint to the line.
Almost certain for a finish somewhere within the top five for the stage is Peter Sagan. He arguably lacks the top end speed required to defeat Cavendish, Greipel and Kittel, however he compensates through his excellent positioning and ability to usually follow the right wheel.
Due to the nature of stage 12’s approach in to the finish, Sagan’s ability to position himself could very well see him in the opportune position to snatch an unexpected victory should the other favourites falter.
Outsiders for the stage victory include Matthew Goss for Orica-GreenEDGE, Danny van Poppel for Vacansoleil-DCM, and Alexander Kristoff for Team Katusha.
According to Sporting Director Matt White, Orica-GreenEDGE will be focusing on the sprint stages littering the second week of the Tour de France.
With Goss’ form supposedly on the improve and the full dedication of the team towards protecting and leading him out in the sprint, he may be able to achieve some top five finishes.
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