You could make a case to say Gai Waterhouse is the leading trainer in Australia. After all, of the three men (Tommy Smith, Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman) to have trained more Group 1 winners in Australia than Gai, only Bart Cummings continues in the job.
Yet in what could be viewed as an admission of failure, Gai has thrown her usual Spring Carnival tactics out the window and will copy the ploy of four-time Melbourne Cup-winning owner Lloyd Williams to land the 2013 Cup.
For all her Sydney dominance – including seven Doncaster Miles, seven Epsom Handicaps and six Golden Slippers – Gai hasn’t cut the mustard in the Melbourne Spring Carnival.
She’s never won the Cox Plate, has taken the Caulfield Cup only once and while she can offer three Melbourne Cup second placings, there is an absence of any November glory which separates her from the best of the best.
The most telling statistic says that 25 of Gai’s 114 career Group 1 victories (a whopping 22 per cent) have come on Epsom Day at Randwick, which is typically conducted on the first weekend of October. It’s remarkable!
Epsom Day is therefore the usual turning point in Gai’s spring. After Epsom Day, Gai will send her best horses to Melbourne for the remainder of spring. Some of her camp, especially her male three-year olds, will already be stationed in the Victorian capital.
In Melbourne, some of Gai’s win once. Few win twice. Rarely do any of her horses win three races in the Spring Carnival.
In fact, her headline horse usually heads to the spelling paddock after a Melbourne flop. In 2010, 2011 and 2012 More Joyous’ last spring run resulted in failure.
Fifth in the 2010 Cox Plate at odds of $6.5; seventh in the 2011 Myer at odds of $2.6 and 11th in last year’s Cox Plate at odds of $8.5.
In 2006, Desert War bolted in the Mackinnon on Derby Day by three lengths. The following Saturday, he was seventh as equal favourite in the Emirates. In 2005, he was fourth in the Mackinnon and 11th in the Emirates at $12.
Similarly, in 2004 Grand Armee won the Mackinnon by four lengths. In the Emirates, he was 13th as favourite.
How can the nation’s best trainer of milers have such a bad record in Victoria’s premier mile race, the Emirates?
I’d argue it’s because Gai’s horses are cooked by the time the Emirates is run on the final Saturday of the Spring Carnival.
And for that same reason, Gai hasn’t won the Melbourne Cup. The Cup is a harder proposition for Gai because it is a 3200m race and she isn’t known as a great trainer of stayers.
In an attempt to bring Melbourne Cup success, Gai has taken a leaf out of Lloyd’s book. Like Williams, Gai has bought quality gallopers from Europe to contest the Melbourne Cup.
Expect the imported Fiorente, Glencadam Gold and Michelangelo to be sent on Melbourne Cup campaigns for Gai this spring.
But right now, only Fiorente, who was second in last year’s Cup when on debut for Gai, appears to be a Melbourne Cup winning chance. And Fiorente will be prepared in typical Williams fashion for Flemington.
In the autumn, Fiorente only raced once. He put in a slashing third in the infamous All Aged Stakes over 1400m behind All Too Hard.
Williams’ belief has been that Melbourne Cup contenders perform best off a light autumn. And it’s an idea that has taken charge.
Fiorente currently sits second in Cup betting at $11. At the top of the betting is the Darren Weir-trained Puissance de Lune, who also had only one hit-out in the autumn (a dead-heat win).
Last year’s Melbourne Cup winner, the Williams owned Green Moon, was only seen once at the races in the 2012 autumn. This year, he had two hit-outs in the autumn.
For many years, Gai’s Melbourne Cup horses were sent on a taxing spring campaign. Beginning in Sydney, they would be aimed at Group 1 races in September and October at Randwick before being transferred to Melbourne for tilts at either the Caulfield Cup or Cox Plate. They would sometimes run on Derby Day as well.
By the time the Cup came around, a Waterhouse entrant could be having their eighth or ninth run that preparation. But it isn’t the case anymore. And certainly not for Fiorente.
It was announced two months ago that Fiorente will have the exact same spring campaign as Green Moon last year.
Having already trialled quite impressively twice over 1400m at Randiwck, Fiorente will now be sent to Melbourne where he will complete his entire campaign.
Fiorente will kick-off in the Memsie over 1400m on August 31. Two weeks’ later, he will again compete at weight-for-age level in the Dato Tan Chin Nam over 1600m on September 14.
He will then be three weeks into the Turnbull Stakes at set weights on October 5, before enjoying another three week break into his final Cup trial in the Cox Plate on October 26.
Fiorente will land in the Melbourne Cup fifth-up from a spell. And like last year, when he was straight off the plane from England, he will have enough freshness in his legs to be a November force.
There’s no doubt that following in the footsteps of Williams is a good strategy for Gai. It could win her first Melbourne Cup.
Fiorente may be suspect at the end of a testing two miles but, as a mudlark, word of a wet Melbourne spring should be music at Gai’s Tulloch Lodge.
Prepared to learn from past mistakes, racing’s first lady is set to don her crown in Melbourne.
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