- Video
-
Club Roar
Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? We want to see it!Content Collections
The Roar Community
- Join
- Login
All eyes will be on Puissance De Lune as the Melbourne Cup favourite commences his cup assault in today’s Group 2 PB Lawrence Stakes. Join us from 2.45pm AEST for a preview, live blog and post-race analysis.
Run over 1400m at Caulfield under weight-for-age conditions, the PB Lawrence is a mixture of winter campaigners racing in their grand final and spring hopefuls resuming.
Puissance De Lune may be the day’s drawcard but there are many factors in this race to suggest he will not win. Most notably, this will be the first run of what will be a three month long campaign.
The PB Lawrence is run over 1400m which is simply too short for a horse of Puissance De Lune’s staying quality. But the Darren Weir trained entire is streets ahead of this field at his best.
In his previous preparations, he has commenced at distances from 1600m onwards and has two wins from his four first-up runs.
In autumn, Puissance De Lune had just one start when he dead-heated with Budriguez when the stayer surged home in the final 100m in the Group 2 Blamey Stakes. Budriguez resumed last week and ran terribly in the Spring Stakes.
After having minor surgery to remove bone chips, the Cup favourite will be nowhere near full fitness yet.
The biggest danger is last year’s winner of this race, Second Effort who has entered the race in better form than he did twelve months ago.
His last start in the Group 3 Bletchingly Stakes was dominant and to have done it on a dead track illustrates how he seems to be getting better with age.
Rain in Melbourne throughout the week had Second Effort’s connections jumping for joy. He is one if the best mudders in the county and all of his best wins have come on heavy tracks.
He enjoys running at Caulfield and this race has been targeted by trainer Clinton McDonald who has him currently at peak fitness.
A steady flow of money has been coming all week for Ajeeb who takes a big step up in class here. In the autumn, he started as favourite for the Australian Guineas but was disappointing.
His development has taken leaps and bounds but he is unproven on a wet track and will his weight will be a concern against this better credentialed field.
Pago Rock likes it here at Caulfield with three wins from six starts. His forms probably suggests he’s a much better horse at the beginning of his preparation but gets in with excellent fitness to make him the best of the outsiders.
He has had five starts in this preparation for three wins over some quality opposition, including Second Effort in the Listed Sir John Monash Stakes.
Of the others, Launay has an excellent record running second-up which he does so here and has the versatility to win on any surface.
The Lonhro gelding has no clear weaknesses and he ran very well late to run third in the Monash in his last start. He’ll appreciate this minor step up in distance and will be one of the last to make his move.
From a holistic perspective, it’s difficult to overlook Puissance De Lune who is simply classes above anything else running today but the distance is a big concern.
From what we have seen of him in the Queen Elizabeth and the Blamey Stakes, he takes a while to kick into stride and is a downright stayer in a field of sprinters.
Alfred Chan’s Tips
1. Second Effort
2. Puissance De Lune
3. Launay
4. Pago Rock
Justin Cinque’s Tips
1. Puissance De Lune
2. Ajeeb
3. Second Effort
4. Launay
Andrew Hawkins’ Tips
1. Under The Sun
2. Launay
3. Puissance De Lune
4. Second Effort
Cameron Rose’s Tips
1. Launay
2. Second Effort
3. Under The Sun
4. Puissance De Lune
Have you ever tried your skills in a Racing daily fantasy competition? Put your best picks to the test for one day and see if you can scoop the pot with Draftstars. Looking for great odds on racing and sport? PlayUp is your best bet. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.