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Today’s Warwick Stakes boasts one of the best fields you will see for a Group 2 race in Australia. It is littered with Cup bound stayers which will draw plenty of intrigue. Join us from 3.00pm AEST for a preview, live blog of the race and post-race analysis.
Run over 1400m under weight-for-age conditions, the Warwick Stakes is the traditional starting point for Sydney based horses aiming for Group 1 glory later in the season.
The field of 14 boasts seven Group 1 winners but few of them will garner too much attention today. Many are stayers commencing their Melbourne and Caulfield Cup campaigns.
What we’re looking for in a winner is a horse that is good fresh, has won early in their campaign at this distance and is a proven weight carrier.
All the rage according the markets is Rain Affair.
Rain Affair decimated a small field when he resumed a fortnight ago in the Missile Stakes to win by six lengths and at no point in the race looked capable of losing.
When markets opened on Wednesday, Rain Affair was odds-on to win this but the bookies are taking no chances.
As his name suggests, the weather dictates Rain Affair’s winning chances. On a heavy track, the bookies probably got it right but the weather in Sydney has been fair so it looks unlikely to be rated heavy.
On Wednesday, Canterbury raced on a Good 3 surface so it would take torrential rain to saturate Warwick Farm.
While Rain Affair has been in a rich vein of form throughout the winter and when he resumed, 1400m is right on the limit of his range against opposition of this field’s quality.
Streama is one of two horses in this field that would be classified as milers and is therefore a decent chance resuming at 1400m.
She is also a horse that meets all of our selection criteria.
She has trialled once on dry ground and won quite comfortably against other Group 1 winners and her second position on the betting markets is justified.
In her five attempts at running first up, she has never missed a place. In her six attempts at this distance, she has never missed a place while winning on three of those occasions.
In her seven attempts at Warwick Farm, she has never missed a place, winning on two of those occasions.
Finally, in her last start she ran second in the Group 1 Tatts Tiara under weight-for-age conditions, although that was only against fillies and mares.
Veyron is the only other recognised miler in this field. The Kiwi raider is a five-time Group 1 winner back at home and is crossing the Tasman for the second time.
We saw him in the autumn when he finished two lengths behind Pierro in the George Ryder Stakes but reports suggested he was not at his best yet because he was targeting the Doncaster Handicap which he ultimately missed due to a blood blister.
As a proven weight-for-age miler with form around the likes Ocean Park and King Mufhasa. This field is much worse than what Veyron lined up against in the George Ryder and he is proven on all types of surfaces. He has attempted the 1400m distance six times for five victories.
The rest of the field are stayers resuming so they will be looking for some race fitness. It is not unheard of for a stayer to win a race like this but a place would be more likely.
Foreteller resumed last preparation in a lower grade than this, over 1400m. In that race, he carried 7kg more than the winner to finish a close second and has fair first up form. Unlike the other stayers, his range is 1800m-2400m so this race should suit him more than others.
Moriarty is another capable of running a good race first up. He had quite a long winter campaign and has spent less time in the paddock than most of these.
Beaten Up has received plenty of early support but in his last preparation, he started over 1600m and struggled to work into the race. Once he got out to 2000m later on in his campaign, he looked a much better horse.
Alfred Chan’s Tips
1. Veyron
2. Streama
3. Foreteller
4. Rain Affair
Justin Cinque’s Tips
1. Rain Affair
2. Streama
3. Toydini
4. Metal Bender
Andrew Hawkins’ Tips
1. Rain Affair
2. Toydini
3. Streama
4. Hawkspur
Cameron Rose’s Tips
1. Rain Affair
2. Streama
3. Toydini
4. Metal Bender
Roar writers 2013 Spring Carnival tipping tally (five points if winning horse is tipped for first; three points if tipped for second; two for third and one for fourth):
After week one
Justin Cinque: 5
Alfred Chan: 3
Andrew Hawkins: 2
Cameron Rose: 1
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