Could we be in for an old-school Spring Carnival in 2013? That is, a spring of depth and quality; a Cox Plate overflowing with Group 1 champions and a Caulfield Cup stacked with class? After Saturday’s Warwick Stakes meeting I’m inclined to say ‘yes!’
Boris Becker once said “you can’t win a Grand Slam in the first week, you can only lose it”.
I think it makes for pretty exciting stuff when everyone who can win the Grand Slam gets through to the second week of play. Big names are the making of big sport.
If the 2013 Spring Carnival was Wimbledon, we’d probably be only halfway through the first round. But that doesn’t mean we can’t get excited. We are already are.
On Saturday, at Warwick Farm and Moonee Valley about two dozen serious spring aspirants made their first appearance of the spring. And save for a handful, most passed with flying colours.
The reason it’s exciting is because Saturday was all about the second tier. There were no high-ranking seeds – the likes of Atlantic Jewel, Green Moon and It’s A Dundeel – stepping out. It was like Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic waiting for the next match day.
Most of Saturday’s cavalry, Grand Slam wildcards like Norzita and Beaten Up, belong in the rung immediately below the top ten, yet their returns were so good they are on-track to challenge in October and November.
Of the three spring Grand Slams, two of them, the Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup, are handicaps. That’s significant because unlike a tennis tournament where the second-tier seeds are given no favour against the big four players, in horse racing handicaps they would be afforded concessions in the form of weight relief.
And if the wise-old heads are right and racing really is all about beating the handicapper then the early parts of spring are crucial.
Because if horses like Norzita or Beaten Up begin to race better than they ever have (especially after the weights for the Cups are released in September), all of a sudden they have a massive advantage over the big guns like Green Moon and It’s A Dundeel when they meet at handicap level.
And if the second-tier has serious depth, like it may in 2013, races like the Caulfield (2400m, Group 1) and Melbourne Cups (3200m, Group 1) become all the more interesting.
So from that Grand Slam point of view, there were three main disappointments on Saturday and all of them at Moonee Valley.
Commanding Jewel, the reigning Thousand Guineas (1600m, Group 1, three-year-old fillies) winner was too one-paced when sixth in her 1000m resumption in the Carylon (Listed, handicap).
She’s on a Cox Plate (2040m, Group 1, weight-for-age) campaign but unless she improves quickly, her programme may need to be realigned to match her performance.
While in the 12-horse 1500m handicap, Lloyd Williams’ imports on Australian debut, Thought Worthy (11th beaten eight lengths) and Massiyn (12th beaten 15 lengths) were awful and legless respectively.
Thought Worthy, who was a Group 2 winner (2400m, set weights) against his own age as a three-year old last August, looks a lot closer to competitiveness than his stablemate.
Thought Worthy comes through what has turned out to be a poor three-year old crop in England.
He deserves another look and undoubtedly he’ll get it but to perform nearer to his best I suspect he’ll need a softer surface and a step-up in trip to his favoured 2400m journey as soon as possible.
Massiyn, on the other hand, has good form-lines through Brown Panther (who will be on a plane for the Melbourne Cup) after beating him home when second in last year’s Irish St Leger (Group 1, 2800m, weight-for-age), but he was so bad on Saturday that he could be the latest imported flop.
And, if true, another reminder for the Williams camp about why they say they will not buy another horse from Europe.
The winner of the race, Clear For Action, is Group 1 placed in Singapore over 1600m and 1800m but holds no big-race nomination. He has the ability to make his presence felt in either the Toorak (1600m, Group 1, handicap) or Emirates (1600m, Group 1, handicap) later in the spring.
Six Group 1 winners made the journey to Warwick Farm for the Warwick Stakes (1400m, Group 2, weight-for-age) and the race was chock full of great runs.
New Zealand eight-year old Veyron, the 20/1 winner who was boldly tipped on top by Alfred Chan in The Roar’s live blog, took his 1400m record to six wins from seven starts, with a strong on-pace performance.
Like Clear for Action, Veyron, a five-time Group 1 winner, holds no Grand Slam nominations but he too can be sent in search of more Group 1 glory in 1600m handicaps this spring.
To describe the pace set by Nash Rawiller on Rain Affair as strong would be an understatement.
Unequivocally given the instruction by trainer Joe Pride to lead clearly, Rawiller had the field strung out by almost a furlong at the 700m mark.
It cooked old Rain Affair who was brave in a badly tiring third, but the tactics put every other horse, each of which – with the exception of Veyron and Centennial Park – was racing first-up from a spell, under a litmus test.
The runner-up Streama, a five-year-old mare who was finished top five in eight Group 1s, sat on Rain Affair’s hammer for the entirety and was great in defeat.
And, then of the unplaced brigade I’m prepared to give ‘A’ marks to Beaten Up (fourth), Toydini (fifth), Metal Bender (sixth), Hawkspur (seventh) and Foreteller (eighth).
Of them, only Toydini is yet to taste Group 1 success but rest-assured he, like the rest of them, is on-track to do so at some stage in the 2013 spring. And a win for any of the five second-up would not surprise.
For Beaten Up and Hawkspur, the Caulfield Cup is the main goal and if I had a share in either horse, or a Caulfield Cup ticket with their name on it, I’d be stoked right now. They are exactly where they need to be from that point of view.
In the Toy Show Quality (1300m, Group 3, mares handicap), Caulfield Cup bound Royal Descent was resuming after her ten-length win in the ATC Oaks (2400m, Group 1, three-year-old fillies). Behind stablemate Hidden Kisses, the Chris Waller four-year old was a sound second.
No doubt she’ll improve off that performance, and pre-race Waller did warn punters that plenty was left in the locker, but in order to avoid being labelled the latest Oaks winner to disappointment in the Melbourne spring, she’ll need to.
The four-year olds were the story to emerge out of the Show County Quality (1200m, Group 3, handicap). Rebel Dane, who has a superb fresh record, showed he had returned in great order to win by over a length.
He will be sent to Melbourne for a trial race down the Flemington straight in the Bobby Lewis Quality (1200m, Group 3, handicap). Rest assured, if he runs well there, and jockey Glen Boss thinks he’ll love the straight, the Patinack Farm Classic (1200m, Group 1, weight-for-age) is a logical and realistic target.
Black Caviar is the incumbent Australian sprinting champion and she’s retired. There is no obvious replacement, so for the first time in what feels like a decade, the mantle of Australia’s best sprinter is up for grabs. No doubt, Rebel Dane is staking a serious claim.
Title was second in the Show County for the second-consecutive year. I wouldn’t be surprised if Saturday’s result turns out to be the highlight of his preparation. The Group racing from here on in will only get hotter.
In third, was Norzita and this was an outstanding return from a four-year-old mare labelled a Melbourne Cup player by her most ardent of fans.
I don’t think Norzita could run 3200m down a well. In fact, this time last year, I was certain she was a massive query at a mile, but with Bart Cummings her trainer, there’s no doubt she’ll be sent on that path.
Before Flemington in November however, the Storm Queen (2000m, Group 1, three-year-old fillies) winner’s main aim is the Cox Plate.
I must admit, I’m yet to be convinced Norzita is of weight-of-age quality but if she continues to race in the same vein as Saturday, it won’t be long before I take my seat on the burgeoning bandwagon. I wouldn’t disagree if someone said she was the run of the day.
Finally, in the three-year-old contests, I thought the two highlights were the victory of New Zealander Cauthen in the McKenzie (1200m, Group 3) in Melbourne and Drago who was second to War in the Up And Coming (1300m, Group 3).
If the local psychic tapped me on the shoulder and said “Cauthen wins the Caulfield Guineas and Drago the Derby” I wouldn’t be surprised at all. The former is armed with major artillery in the form a wicked turn of foot and he deserves Guineas (1600m, Group 1, three-year olds) favouritism.
Drago told us he was a VRC Derby (2500m, Group 1, three-year olds) colt with an outstanding pair of fourths behind Guelph at Group 1 level in the autumn and his return on Saturday did nothing to change our minds.
He was super when closing off strongly for second on Saturday. Pen him in for a win second-up providing it isn’t at Group 1 level in a Golden Rose (1400m, Group 1, three-year olds).
If he is next seen in The Rose, he will no doubt acquit himself well, could even win, but it’s definitely a wide-open race and I can’t be as confident about a second-up victory.
Next week the focus is firmly on Caulfield for the Memsie (1400m, Group 1, weight-for-age) which will be the scene of race-track returns for Atlantic Jewel, It’s A Dundeel, Super Cool, Green Moon and Fiorente. What a cracking race it promises to be!
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