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There’s an old saying that ‘there’s no such thing as a certainty in racing’. Well let me tell you, one thing is for certain – Saturday’s cards in both Melbourne and Sydney will have racing fans more excited than a kid in a candy shop.
The highlight of the day is undoubtedly the Group 1 Memsie Stakes at Caulfield, to be run over 1400m at 4.50pm AEST.
The Memsie is a time-honoured race and the list of past champions is as impressive as Roger Federer’s backhand.
Winners include So You Think (2010), Weekend Hussler (2008), Miss Finland (2007), El Segundo (2006), Makybe Diva (2005), Sunline (2000-01), Dane Ripper (1998), Naturalism (1992), Rubiton (1987) and Manikato (1982).
It’s an important race with respect to the spring features with a number of the best horses in the land, all prominent in Cups and Cox Plate markets, kicking off their assault on the carnival riches.
This year’s renewal, to be run at Group 1 level for the first time, is arguably the deepest in the race’s history.
Mark Kavanagh’s unbeaten star Atlantic Jewel resumes after 16 months on the sidelines.
She’s seven from seven but hasn’t raced since her All Aged Stakes win in Sydney in April last year.
There’s no doubting this wonder mare has talent to burn, and with Black Caviar now in the breeding barn she’s probably the best horse in the land.
However, she must be some risk given she’s not raced for so long and ‘Kav’ won’t want her peaking until Cox Plate Day.
Which begs the question, if Atlantic Jewel is vulnerable on Saturday, and I think she is, who can beat her?
Will one of the top-class stayers such as It’s A Dundeel, Green Moon, Fiorente, Silent Achiever or Super Cool, be able to produce a blinding run fresh?
Or can one of the lesser likes, maybe a Second Effort or Ajeeb, be able to use their fitness edge to advantage and upset the smorgasbord of stars?
You can make a case for just about every horse in the field but you can only tip one and I’m banking on class to get Atlantic Jewel home.
It must be pointed out that this is the toughest field she’s faced and although I have her on top, she’s no good thing for mine and I wouldn’t be rushing into even money!
The main danger might just be Silent Achiever. She’s a very good mare, goes well fresh and should get a gun run from gate four with Steven Arnold on top.
I’m also expecting a massive first-up run from It’s A Dundeel. Like most, I have a huge opinion of the NSW Horse of the Year and his trainer Murray Baker. He too has bigger fish to fry but like Atlantic Jewel is all class.
Tips
1. Atlantic Jewel
2. Silent Achiever
3. It’s A Dundeel
4. Ajeeb.
Other runners I’m keen on and looking forward to seeing at Caulfield:
Race 1
Spirit Of Heaven – This filly was very unlucky behind stablemate Kiss A Rose in the Quezette Stakes last time out and gets in well with 57kg after the claim for the in-form young-gun Patrick Moloney.
Race 6
Pocket Rockets – This gelding was beaten for pace last week in the Carlyon but rocketed home to finish fifth. His sectionals were outstanding and he looks good each way value in a cracking race.
Race 7
Pakal – Hard not to be taken by his stunning first-up win at Caulfield a fortnight ago.
He’s drawn awkwardly in 15 and is facing some tough old stayers but the way he quickened when asked to go last time smacked of a high-class performer destined for better things.
Have a great Memsie Stakes Day and good luck if you’re having a punt!
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