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Group 1 racing has arrived and today’s Memsie Stakes has been bolstered by a cracking field of superstars. Join us from 4.00pm AEST for a preview, live blog and post-race analysis.
Run with Group 1 status for the first time, this 1400m race run under weight-for-age conditions is heavily made up of Cox Plate contenders commencing their spring campaigns.
Atlantic Jewel heads the field in what will be her first race in 16 months.
Trainer Mark Kavanagh has been very patient with his unbeaten mare by Fastnet Rock who was the pre-post favourite for last year’s Cox Plate when injury ended her campaign before it began.
Resisting the desire to retire her, Atlantic Jewel is now back and has barrier trialled twice in the past month to alleviate punters of some fears.
Not much was expected of her first trial when she got through the run unscathed.
She hit a heavy track for her second trial and Kavanagh instructed Michael Rodd to go easy on her without pushing her too hard. Rodd did just that and Atlantic Jewel cantered to victory nevertheless.
The exciting mare is has not lined up against a field of this class before. But the bookies are right to have her as the short-priced favourite because she is a better horse fresh than others fancied in the field.
Three-year-old triple-crown winner It’s A Dundeel holds second elect and we are going to see how good this horse really is because he has never won in ppen class before.
The argument has been made that he is a flat-track bully, dominating last year’s three year old class when others like Super Cool took on open class and won.
The Kiwi commenced his autumn campaign over the same distance he finds here when he ran fourth in the Group 2 Hobartville Stakes.
He struck a heavy track in that day but still flew home to run fourth behind Pierro.
It’s A Dundeel does his best work on rain-affected ground and the 1400m will be a shade on the short side for him. Additionally, he has actually never won in Melbourne before.
It’s going to be a big season for Kavanagh who has hedged his stable stars in this race with Australia Cup winner Super Cool also lining up.
The gelding was might impressive in autumn and the Cox Plate has always been his target.
Each time they have met, Super Cool as had the wood on It’s A Dundeel so it will not surprise anyone if Kavanagh trains the first two past the post.
Earlier in the week when asked about Super Cool and Atlantic Jewel’s chances he mentioned that Super Cool will need a run or two before reaching peak fitness.
Fiorente has gathered interest in early markets because he may be the most versatile horse in the country. Running fresh last spring, he ran second over 3200m in the Melbourne Cup.
His first up run in autumn was equally impressive when he flashed home third against Australia’s best sprinters in the All Aged Staked over the much shorter 1400m.
In this race last year, Happy Trails ran impressively when he finished second. He has taken the same preparation this year by coming through the Spring Stakes.
He won the Spring Stakes last year but finished fifth in the same race this year.
Don’t look too much into that race because he was baulked in traffic when then entered the straight and he was also the fastest finishing horse when they hit the line.
The South Australian will give a bold showing and has fitness on most of this field.
The other Kiwi in the race, Silent Achiever, could be a good roughie in the race. New Zealand form held up very well when Veyron won the Warwick Stakes at long odds last week and Silent Achiever is a better horse than Veyron.
Melbourne Cup watchers will been keen to see how Green Moon, Seville and My Quest For Peace to see how they come on.
The distance is far too short for them to impact the race but they will be Cup contenders with good runs here.
As the spruik horse for the past six months and the one that has inherited the responsibility of headlining the spring carnival, expectation rests on the shoulders of Atlantic Jewel.
Closer inspection of her form however raises questions of whether that expectation is justified or not.
Atlantic Jewel may be unbeaten but she has not beaten a lot in her seven wins.
Punters were impressed by her when she stepped out of her age group and she won the Group 1 All Aged Stakes in her last start, against older horses.
But the horse that ran second on that day was Rain Affair who ran on a dry track over 1400m.
Rain Affair lined up in the Warwick Stakes last week in those exact same conditions and struggled immensely to cover the trip, thus detracting from the form of Atlantic Jewel.
She is a super mare and this race is a considerable step up in class, but there is something special about Atlantic Jewel.
The Group 1 Memsie Stakes will be run as the final race of the day at 4.50pm AEST.
Alfred Chan’s Tips
1. Atlantic Jewel
2. Happy Trails
3. Super Cool
4. Silent Achiever
Justin Cinque’s Tips
1. Ajeeb
2. Atlantic Jewel
3. Fiorente
4. Super Cool
Andrew Hawkins’ Tips
1. Super Cool
2. Atlantic Jewel
3. Happy Trails
4. Luckygray
Cameron Rose’s Tips
1. Atlantic Jewel
2. Happy Trails
3. Fiorente
4. Ajeeb
Roar writers 2013 Spring Carnival tipping tally (five points if winning horse is tipped for first; three points if tipped for second; two for third and one for fourth):
After week two
Alfred Chan: 8
Justin Cinque: 5
Andrew Hawkins: 2
Cameron Rose: 1
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