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Puissance De Lune returns in today’s Group 1 2013 Makybe Diva Stakes and will be joined by a stellar support cast of Melbourne Cup hopefuls making their seasonal reappearances. Join us from 2.45pm AEST for a preview, live blog and post-race analysis.
After seeing him cruise to victory in the PB Lawrence stakes, today’s 1600m race being run for the first time with Group 1 status should no longer be considered too short of a trip for Puissance De Lune.
However, he comes up against genuine Group 1 horses compared to the much weaker field he dominated three weeks ago. The long open straight at Flemington will suit the Darren Weir trained grey as he continues his Melbourne Cup preparation.
But today will not be all about Puissance De Lune because there are quality stayers in this field who will strengthen their Cup chances with big runs or even victory.
The hype horse of the past 12 months is Sea Moon who will be making his Australian debut after being purchased from Europe by Lloyd Williams.
In Europe, Sea Moon defeated Dunaden, Red Cadeaux, Fiorente and Jakkalberry in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes back in 2011. All four of those horses went on to run top three in the Melbourne Cup.
The most we have seen of Sea Moon has been in his track gallops. In every one of them, he has looked better than Green Moon who was huge last week in the Memsie Stakes.
Sea Moon’s staying credentials are so highly rated that he has been allocated second top weight in the Caulfield Cup after Melbourne Cup winner Green Moon.
This is despite the fact Sea Moon is yet to win a Group 1.
The trip today might be a bit short for him but we’re looking for the classic turn of foot Robert Hickmott trains into Williams’ horses.
Another highly rated stayer resuming today’s is Pat Carey’s Ethiopia who holds a rare title of locally bred stayer. The lightly raced five year old was injured in last year’s Cup but prior to that, he finished an impressive fourth in the Cox Plate.
The Melbourne Cup has always been Ethiopia’s target; pretty much from birth so if he returns in good order, he will carry the flag for local breeders. He ran in the Doncaster Handicap in autumn over the mile which proved too short.
Hope for a good run, but don’t expect Ethiopia to win.
Mr Moet arrives from Western Australia and is being aimed at the Cups. The Westerner is the most proven runner in the field over a mile and when we saw him cross the desert in the autumn, he ran very well.
His run in the Orr Stakes when he finished third behind All Too Hard proved he could match it with Melbourne best under weight-for-age conditions.
In five first-up runs, he has won three times and placed once.
Peter Moody looked to have Manighar back to his best in the autumn when he ran on strongly in the Eagle Farm Cup to finish second. But now an eight year old, he is on the decline and the Melbourne Cup is looking beyond his reach.
But that’s not to say he won’t still be highly competitive in a race like the Mackinnon Stakes. If he can return in style with a big run here, the Melbourne Cup could be a realistic target again.
He runs well fresh and is a Group winner over the mile and has to be given a chance because he never runs a bad race at Flemington.
Foreteller comes through the Warwick Stakes from a fortnight ago where he was huge over 1400 which was too short for him. Entering the straight as a backmarker, he ran the final 200m faster than any other horse in the race.
Now a proven weight carrier after winning the Group 1 Ranvet Stakes over 2000m, he is approaching his ideal distance here. Chris Waller has flagged the Mackinnon Stakes as his finale so the distance and track should suit him.
Joining us from Germany, Waldpark commences his Cox Plate campaign here.
These German imports arrive with big unknown factor but Waldpark was acquired by Anthony Freedman. He has an excellent record with German imports having bought over Lucas Cranach and Mawingo in the past.
Roar expert Andrew Hawkins believes Waldpark can win the Cox Plate and German form has proven excellent this season with Novelist and Pastorius defeating Europe’s best this season already.
It’s quite difficult to overlook Puissance De Lune here.
As the season unfolds, the rave conditions suit him more and more. He showed his versatility in the PB Lawrence to win under hand and heels riding.
Bossy might need to draw the whip here but Puissance De Lune has got fitness on this field and most of them will be looking for a longer trip.
The Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes will be run at 3.30pm AEST.
Alfred Chan’s tips
1. Puissance De Lune
2. Foreteller
3. Mr Moet
4. Sea Moon
Justin Cinque’s Tips
1. Puissance De Lune
2. December Draw
3. Foreteller
4. Sea Moon
Andrew Hawkins’ Tips
1. Sea Moon
2. Masked Marvel
3. Puissance De Lune
4. Mr Moet
Cameron Rose’s Tips
1.Puissance de Lune
2.Mr Moet
3.Sea Moon
4.Manighar
Roar writers 2013 Spring Carnival tipping tally (five points if winning horse is tipped for first; three points if tipped for second; two for third and one for fourth):
After week three
Alfred Chan: 13
Justin Cinque: 8
Cameron Rose: 6
Andrew Hawkins: 5
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