I can’t believe I’m alone in saying I have no idea in what might happen in tonight’s Under 23 Men’s Road Race.
Watching World Tour cycling it’s easy to admire how well drilled the races are. Years of accumulated race experience means tactics are nearly always perfectly executed.
Riders generally know to the watt, when and how to dose their effort leaving very little, except perhaps luck, to chance.
And because we see so much of the World Tour action, we have our own ‘form guides’ and expectations.
But for tonight’s race, I have no form guide.
I know hardly any of the riders.
I simply haven’t got a clue as to what might happen.
That said, I cannot wait for the race to unfold because there’s nothing like a sporting journey into the unknown.
Tonight’s 173km race from Montecatini Terme to Florence features seven climbs of the Fiesole, the final one about five kms from the finish.
This could be enough for a sprinter to stay with the stronger guys, but given the ages of these guys, that kind of sustained effort may not be possible.
Seven Aussie riders will be vying for glory tonight and many say this team is as good as any Aussie under 23 team we’ve fielded.
With seven wins this year, Caleb Ewan is tipped to challenge strongly, but at 19 the odds are against him, as a gold medal would make him the youngest ever winner of this race.
Caleb is also more renowned as a sprinter, but that doesn’t mean he can’t climb. The NSW rider won the 52nd edition of the GP Palio del Recioto in April, which had a serious climb before a downhill finish.
Ewan is only a two years younger than Damien Howson but at that age, this represents a big difference.
As we saw a couple of days ago, the South Australian blitzed the field in the ITT to win gold by a hefty 57 seconds.
And those who have seen him ride the hills of his hometown in Adelaide know how fast he is on the climbs – Corkscrew in seven minutes anyone?!
Damien Howson will be so confident after claiming the individual time trial gold he could well follow up in the road race – he did the same double at the U23 Oceania Championships in March.
Howson’s monster year has also seen him win his first European road race this year and sign a deal with Orica-GreenEDGE for 2014.
If confidence is a big factor, Howson will have a major effect on the outcome of the race.
These two may be rated Australia’s best chances but, should the unexpected happen, the race could be played in any number of different ways.
Adam Phelan, Campbell Flakemore, Bradley Linfield, Samuel Spokes and Calvin Watson make up the rest of this super strong team.
Like Howson, Flakemore will be boosted by his strong fourth place in the ITT on Tuesday and will be crucial in keeping the race together for the protected riders.
Adam Phelan – who rides for Drapac for his day job – has, like Damien Howson, had a similarly heavy-race schedule this year.
Howson has clocked up 50 race days, with Phelan just behind him on 48, in a season which began at the National Championships and the Tour Down Under.
Phelan hasn’t won any races but did finish fourth at the Internationale Thuringen-Rundfahrt in Germany.
Sam Spokes could be a factor should Ewan and Howson struggle.
The 21-year-old Tamworth born rider raced with Omega Pharma Quickstep’s espoir team in 2012 and finished sixth in the junior Liege-Bastogne-Liege. He’ll also be keen to make up for missing out on a place in last year’s Worlds team.
Another Aussie keen to prove a point is Calvin Watson.
The 20 year old won this year’s Herald Sun Tour on the leg-sapping Arthur’s Seat climb, just weeks after being dropped from the National under 23 program. He’s the youngest ever winner of Australia’s oldest stage race.
This ability to channel disappointment into positive energy and now force his way back into the National team says plenty and, like Spokes, he will be one to watch if designated riders struggle.
Zimbabwean born but raised in Perth, Bradley Linfield is another one with what looks like the full tool kit top-end riders need.
He has good top end speed, as he proved in winning the National U23 Criterium Championships this year.
Linfield’s fourth place in this year’s Herald Sun Tour highlighted his climbing abilities and, according to those in the know, he can also time trial.
As legendary Jayco VIS coach Dave Sanders told Ride Magazine‘s Rob Arnold after the finish of Calvin Watson’s victorious Herald Sun Tour, Linfield may well be set to go all the way:
“He’s only a little guy but he’s got some stuff, I’m telling you. Remember that name. He’s a great character, he’s as tough as nails, he’s a good guy.”
What a team the national selectors appear to have picked.
So many cards to play in a field packed with so many other ‘unknown’ contenders.
For pure racing this could be the best of the entire championships.
Fancy a wager on your favourite sport? Head on over to PlayUp for great odds and friendly customer service and pick a winner. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.
Australia's Jai Hindley has said he is "lost for words" after a shock stage victory at the Tour de France earned him the leader's…
Australia's Jai Hindley has said he is "lost for words" after a shock stage victory at the Tour de France earned him the leader's…
Tadej Pogacar has won a drama-packed Tour of Flanders, winning in a breakaway with Matieu van der Poel second, Mads Pedersen third and Wout…
Women are not allowed to compete in the Tour de France. However you choose to re-read that sentence, the fact remains: the most famous…
The jam-packed month-by-month quiz full of 2022 sports trivia!
Australian Grace Brown has won silver in the women's time trial, the first event at the world road cycling championships.
