The Cairns Taipans have gone from pre-season darlings to 2-7 in just two months of basketball.
After a season in which they finished one game out of the finals, and after roster tweaks that made the team seem better on paper, the next step did not appear all that elusive.
Then there was the 8-1 pre-season, where the second-lowest scoring team from last year only once put up less than 85 points.
Yet now the Taipans are in the midst of a seven-game losing streak and well outside the finals conversation. Murmurs of whether an import or the coach should be let go have surfaced.
But all is not completely lost.
While the losing streak started with some shockers, some untimely bad luck has been a theme over the past few games.
They lost to the league-leading Perth last weekend in overtime.
Before that they lost to Wollongong in a controversial final 15 seconds.
The week before they were three-point losers away to Melbourne.
Plus, Cam Tragardh may finally be returning to form, surpassing 20 points for the first time this season against Perth and also posting a season-high seven rebounds. (Last season, he averaged 6.4 rebounds per game.)
Importantly, the impact of turnovers – a stat Cairns led until last week – has reduced the past two weeks. Against Perth and Wollongong they had fewer turnovers than their opponents for the first time since that last win in Round 2.
So some positive signs are bubbling below the surface. It just doesn’t change the fact that on the surface, they are 2-7.
The injury to Cameron Gliddon has been put forth as an explanation, although – while he hasn’t been the same since returning – he did only miss three games. It’s part of the story but not even close to all of it.
Tragardh’s reduced output and the abundance of turnovers are also potential answers. But Tragardh’s drop-off has coincided with Matt Burston’s impressive start to the season.
While turnovers are an issue, overall the Taipans have a more efficient offence than last season.
The problem with that is every other team has an improved offence too.
Cairns have jumped from scoring 100.2 points per 100 possessions to scoring 108.5, but this is hardly extraordinary. With the help of the officiating changes, all eight teams are putting up bigger numbers and three (Adelaide, Perth and Townsville) have even jumped by more than 10 points per 100 possessions.
So while the Taipans have gotten a much-needed boost on offence, the reward for it has only been minimal.
Exacerbating the problem is their performance on defence. After last season being the best defensive team outside Perth and New Zealand – who were ahead of the pack on both ends – now only two teams leak more points. (Ironically, New Zealand is one of those teams.)
Cairns have gone from giving up 103.2 points per 100 possessions to giving up 114.2. All teams are allowing more points as well, but the Taipans have slipped by three points more than the average decline.
This is where the improvement now needs to come from.
Once again, there’s been a glimmer of hope at the tail end of the losing streak – last week was Perth’s lowest score at the end of four quarters this season.
Once again, though, the Taipans didn’t get the W so it counts for little.
Which brings us to tomorrow night’s game against the Adelaide 36ers, who are currently riding a six-game winning streak.
The 36ers, while in form, will be on the road and on the second night of a back-to-back. They also trail the Wildcats in title favouritism, making this a game absolutely within reach.
But reaching will no longer be enough. The Taipans need to win.
An eight-game losing streak wouldn’t convince anyone that the recent subtle positives can turn around their season.
A win against top two opposition on top of the subtle positives would be another story entirely.
Their season, as the cliché goes, will be on the line.
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