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Today’s 2000m G1 Rosehill Guineas is the second leg of the Australian Triple Crown for three-year-olds. Join us for a live blog of all the action as we build up to the 4:40pm AEDT start time.
Run at level weights, the Rosehill Guineas is a feature race in it’s own right but is also a key lead-up to the Group 1 ATC Australian Derby (2400m) on April 12. The Derby is the third and final leg of the Triple Crown. This race was won easily by It’s A Dundeel last year but it is not as clear cut in 2014.
Dissident won the first leg of the Triple Crown, the 1600m Randwick Guineas, determinedly over El Roca a fortnight back and he will be one of the most closely-watched runners in the field.
The rain has been falling all week in Sydney and a heavy track seems inevitable. It is the wet conditions, coupled with the testing 2000m distance that will decide the result of this race.
Dissident brings the class and wet form to the table after his Group 2 Hobartville victory on a Slow 7 track a month ago. His second in the Rosebud back in the spring was also full of merit on a slow surface. His biggest obstacle isn’t the wet track condition but rather the 2000m, which will be exaggerated by the testing track conditions.
In Dissident’s favour is an ideal draw in barrier 7 and a confident jockey in Jim Cassidy. They say horses can sense the confidence in a hoop!
The jury is out on whether Dissident’s sire Sebring produces a genuine 2000m horse, although the signs are encouraging given the fight Dissident showed over the mile last start. He deserves favouritism here, albeit in an open race.
It is not often that a Cox Plate winner doesn’t start favourite when he gets to 2000m (and back to his own age group) but that is exactly the situation with Shamus Award. Are we all mad?
Possibly, but his last start sixth in the Australian Cup didn’t fill us with a great deal of confidence, nor does his lack of exposure to wet tracks.
At least we know Snitzel’s progeny seem to handle the wet well but in Shamus Award’s case it is open to debate. He has a consistent record of five placings from six starts on dead tracks but those surfaces will be nothing like the sloppy ground he will face for the first time today.
Shamus Award does get barrier 1. He could lead but may not get things his own way as he did in the Cox Plate because Order Of The Sun and Hooked are also likely to go forward. This can really add some early pressure to the race which could play into the hooves of any number of swoopers – including Teronado and the well-named Late Charge – at the death.
Teronando has been waiting patiently for his entire career for a genuine tempo and should he get it today then he is a terrific chance over the 2000m. He has had two starts on wet tracks for a win and a second.
His run in the Randwick Guineas when running fourth, after being tenth at the 400m mark, was very impressive and will be heading to the Derby providing he runs well today. The fact trainer Bruce Hill is looking at 2400m next start gives plenty of confidence for him seeing out the 2000m at his first try.
Late Charge on face value looks outclassed considering he was fifth in a moderate Sandown handicap but the rain and distance increase should help this son of Hard Spun – another sire who has strong wet form. Late Charge has had only the two starts on slow tracks for two wins. He could be one for the exotics, and ambitious each-way players.
The 2014 Rosehill Guineas also features the highly anticipated Australian debut of New Zealand Derby winner, Puccini. His jockey Michael Walker rates him up there with the best horses he has ridden and there is a general buzz around his chances in the Australian Derby. He is the favourite for that race.
Therein lies our warning! Could he be already looking for 2400m rather than the step back to 2000m today. Massive kudos to his trainers Peter and Jacob Mackay if they can pull it off but even they themselves were quoted as saying they’d be happy with a top three finish today. Puccini also has no exposed wet form which only makes him harder to line up.
Of the rest, we could give Savvy Nature some hope given he ran nicely on the soft for third in Dissident’s Hobartville and also boasts a 2000m victory in the AAMI Vase.
Atlante remains a head scratcher following his second in the Hobartville on the slow surface. He wasn’t supposed to handle that ground yet he still ran second (despite looking uncomfortable in the conditions). Then he got on the dry ground last start and was outsprinted. Will a heavy track help his cause?
Cadillac Mountain and Thunder Fantasy probably round out the chances although both will require significant improvement on their most recent form.
Overall, plenty will depend on where ‘Pumper’ Cassidy positions Dissident in the run, and more so whether he appreciates a tough 2000m.
Roar racing writers’ autumn tipping competition (five points if winning horse is tipped for first; three points if tipped for second; two for third and one for fourth):
Josh Cooke – Today’s live blogger
1. Teronado
2. Dissident
3. Puccini
4. Late Charge
Justin Cinque – Roar Racing Editor
1. Thunder Fantasy
2. Shamus Award
3. Teronado
4. Dissident
Cameron Rose – Roar Expert
1. Thunder Fantasy
2. Dissident
3. Puccini
4. Shamus Award
Alfred Chan – Roar Guru
1. Teronado
2. Savvy Nature
3. Puccini
4. Criterion
Brad Durrant – Roar Guru
1. Cadillac Mountain
2. Puccini
3. Criterion
4. Shamus Award
Brent Ford – Roar Guru
1. Dissident
2. Thunder Fantasy
3. Shamus Award
4. Puccini
Points tally after the Coolmore Classic/Ranvet Stakes
Brent Ford – 19
Alfred Chan – 12
Cameron Rose – 9
Brad Durrant – 9
Justin Cinque – 8
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