With three weeks of the NFL season now complete, we can now ascertain firmer assessments of where each team stands.
Some teams who entered the season as outside playoff hopes now appear to be in contention for the number one draft pick (Tampa Bay), while others who we thought had no playoff hopes are starting to emerge as potential contenders (the Buffalo Bills).
Heading into the season there were plenty of question marks about which of last year’s playoff teams would drop out and who would replace them. Two such teams raised in these discussions were the San Francisco 49ers ad Arizona Cardinals.
The NFC West rivals faced off for the first time this weekend and the alarm bells that started ringing in the 49ers ears last week are now ringing even louder, while the Cardinals have now rocketed to the top of the division standings.
The 3-0 Cardinals are a very solid football team, they missed out on the playoffs last year by just one match and are the only team to defeat the Seahawks in Seattle during the Russell Wilson era. However, what has held them back over the past four to five years is the absence of a quality player in the most important position in all of American professional sports, a quarterback.
Since Kurt Warner retired after the 2009 season, Arizona has used eight different starting quarterbacks. After using just one starter throughout the entire 2013 season, Carson Palmer, it looked as though the Cardinals finally had a bit of stability at the vital position.
Even if he’s no Tom Brady or Drew Brees, Palmer is certainly better than having Blaine Gabbert or Josh Freeman leading the team. Unfortunately, it was not to be for the Cardinals after Palmer injured a nerve in his shoulder during the team’s come from behind victory over the Chargers in week one.
Nerve injuries can be extremely frustrating injuries to overcome – just ask Peyton Manning – they can take days, weeks, months or even years to completely heal and you have no idea when they will heal. Palmer is a week to week proposition at the moment, and the Cardinals don’t know when he will return.
That means that the Cardinals are stuck with Drew Stanton for now. While he is definitely a downgrade on Palmer, Stanton has done a very good job leading the Cardinals over the last two weeks. Crucially, he hasn’t turned the ball over once during his two weeks at the helm. Stanton has a number of very good receivers to work with, most notably Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald, and he has displayed wise decision making.
Without an elite quarterback leading the team, it is important for the Cardinals to provide support on both sides of the ball. Thankfully Arizona has an outstanding defence, which allows Stanton and the offense to play a more conservative style.
The Cardinals recorded the second best DVOA in the league last season, per Football Outsiders, coming in behind only the all-conquering Seattle Seahawks. Unfortunately the Cardinals lost linebacker Karlos Dansby to the Browns in the off-season and Darnell Dockett to a torn ACL in the preseason, but Larry Foote and Antonio Cromartie are two key acquisitions that have started the season strongly, the Cardinals now have to hope that Cromartie’s knee injury is not too serious.
Entering the season it was predicted that Arizona would face the toughest schedule in the NFL, with a draw that includes eight matches against last year’s playoff teams, the AFC West and NFC East. However, we are now three weeks in and the Cardinals are already 2-0 in the first of their eight matches against playoff teams.
Looking at the remainder of their schedule, Arizona should win six of these matches at the very least. The Cardinals are not going to go through the season undefeated, but if their defence continues to play at an outstanding level and if Bruce Arians continues to lead this team with aplomb the playoffs are certainly a strong possibility, especially if the 49ers continue to struggle.
Speaking of San Francisco, there were serious concerns about the 49ers entering this season and many of these concerns are playing out in front of our eyes. The defence has struggled in their last two matches and their lack of a running game is looking highly concerning.
Colin Kaepernick has been the team’s leading rusher for the past two weeks and after running the ball 16 times in week one against Dallas, Frank Gore ran the ball just six times in Phoenix, picking up a measly 10 yards.
This is not sustainable, Kaepernick cannot keep rushing the ball as much as he has in the past two weeks, a combined 24 times, if he plans on staying healthy for the entire season. The 49ers need Frank Gore to step up and provide a more balanced attack or else they will be eaten alive by some of the defences they will face throughout the rest of the season.
Kaepernick has been inconsistent at times this season and looked scratchy at best in the second half both last week and against Arizona.
The 49ers concerns are not confined to the offensive side of the ball, but also on defence. Prior to the start of the season Aldon Smith was suspended for nine matches for violating the NFL’s personal conduct and substance abuse policies.
Additionally, the team placed star linebacker NaVorro Bowman on the physically unable to perform list after he tore both his ACL and MCL in last year’s NFC Championship match and he won’t be eligible to return until week six at the earliest.
While their replacements have performed admirably, they have struggled to pressure the quarterback in each of their three matches. The only players to record a sack for the team are star defensive end Justin Smith and linebacker Ahmad Brooks.
Another concerning trend for the 49ers defence is their poor discipline. Every match this season they have given away unnecessary roughness penalties, multiple illegal contact penalties and numerous illegal use of hands penalties.
Some of these flags can be forgiven, but most unnecessary roughness penalties can be avoided, especially those that come after a play is over, and players were warned about the increased enforcement of illegal contact fouls and had the entire preseason to iron out any kinks in the new rules. Yet, the 49ers defence is still being found guilty of committing this avoidable act.
It is entirely possible for the 49ers to rebound from their sloppy start to the season, the season is still young and they still have a number of defensive stars to return to the side. However, if they hope to qualify for the playoffs and get the better of the Cardinals in Week 17’s return bout the defence must show improvements week to week and improve their discipline.
On offense, they need more input from Frank Gore to take pressure off of Colin Kaepernick.
Twitter: @fromthesheds
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