The last transitional stage before we hit the final high mountains in the Alps should be a cracker. I have been waiting for this stage with anticipation for the whole tour.
Keen Australian viewers should remember the finale to the stage if they were following the events of 2011 tour, where Cadel Evans triumphed. This was the stage which started Evans charge for the yellow jersey – and here is why.
The stage starts in the town of Bourg De Peage and will travel over 200 kilometres to the town of Gap, which has thrown up some superb attacking racing over the past few occasions.
Included in the 200 kilometres are two category climbs, with one of them being the Col De Manse, the scene of some fabulous racing.
The climb itself is not particularly difficult, but it is placed right at the end of a heavy day, with 90 per cent of the stage being uphill. The climb averages at under 6 percent for the 8 and a half kilometres.
In 2011, Thor Hushovd won the stage, showing that punchy sprinters, like Sagan, have the chance to really feature in today’s stage, most probably from the
breakaway.
The race director reaffirmed this thought, speaking on the race’s official website, saying, “It should be one of the last opportunities left for the long breakaway specialists. However sprinters who will be able to remain within shooting distance in the climbs of the day could also have their word to say, especially because for the finish in Gap, one of the nicest straights awaits.
Also in reference to 2011, Jens Voigt spoke to Cycling News. “Andy Schleck lost a Tour de France on the descent of the Col de Manse (losing over a minute) but even worse was when Joseba Beloki finished his career by crashing on it. On downhills like this, every year there are crashes and stress. Then people know it’s dangerous, so they try to break away there and use the descent to their advantage.
Both Chris Froome and Alberto Contador know the obvious dangers of the descent, as Contador crashed in front of Froome on a wet day in 2013. Ultimately, Team Sky may be able to control the climb of the Col de Manse, but it will be up to Froome to control the descent.
Today will be a big day for the general classification riders. Expect at least one rider in the top 10 losing out on a day like this.
Favourites
The last two times the race has finished in Gap, the breakaway has survived on both occasions, a testament to the fact of how this stage is. No general classification riders want to attack this stage, in fear of coming unstuck.
With that in mind, here are my favourites from a potential breakaway.
Rui Costa is the only rider in the peloton that has won in Gap, after having done so in 2013. The former world champion though, has been in relatively poor form so far this Tour, and may think a stage like this suits him more than the high mountains of the Alps.
If Costa is to win, he will need to replicate his win in 2013, where he attacked near the top of the Col de Manse, and descend away to victory. Ultimately, that will depend on his own form, more so than that of his competitors.
On this stage in 2013, Peter Sagan was in the first initial break, but unfortunately for him, it was caught, and he did not feature for the rest of the day.
The new Greg Van Avermaet, as l will now call him, should really be in the breakaway today, as I see it as his last chance to win. The climb may hurt him if he goes up against genuine climbers like Costa, but the fast descent and finish would be perfect for him to make up time, much like Thor Hushovd did in 2011.
I give him a very good chance today if he makes tactically sound decisions, something which continues to evade Sagan.
Some other time I will attempt to give a reason why Orica-GreenEDGE will win a stage. Maybe it is out of nationalistic bias (most probably is) or maybe it is because of the quality riders (Yates brothers and Weening) they still have in the race.
Either way, they are running out of chances, and they would not want to finish without a stage win for the second tour in succession.
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