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The Cox Plate has arrived, and what a genuine weight-for-age championship it is going to be this year. The likes of Pinker Pinker and Shamus Award wouldn’t even get a run in this edition, let alone be winning the race.
As is ever the growing case with our big races now, there is very much an international flavour too, with three overseas visitors.
The raiders took home their first Cox Plate last year through Adelaide and Ryan Moore’s masterful ride – can they do it again with three representatives, or will the locals be able to keep them at bay?
It’s a wonderfully even betting race, but Highland Reel is the current market-elect, about half a point above the each-way cut. Punters have zeroed in on him thanks to the same trainer/jockey combination of Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore that delivered success to Adelaide last year, and a friendly barrier giving him every chance at the run of the race.
Adelaide won the Group 1 Secretariat Stakes in the US on the way to his Cox Plate, and Highland Reel won the same race in even more dominant style this time around. The trainer has an even higher opinion of him too. It all adds up to a horse that’s going to be hard to beat.
The only mare in the race, Winx, currently occupies the second line of betting, and has really come into her own this prep, even though it’s only been a short one, carrying residual fitness over from her dominant Brisbane form.
Despite looking in a bit of trouble at the top of the straight in the Epsom, she put them away with the authority of a horse that has special qualities. The form out of that race has been tested a few times, and found wanting so far, but her victory was impressive enough to say she’s a player here.
Criterion put together back-to-back Australian victories in the Caulfield Stakes last start, following on from his Queen Elizabeth win back in April. In between times, he turned out in Hong Kong and England, giving a decent account of himself without threatening to win.
The Caulfield Stakes was set up for the four horses that settled in the back half of the field, of which Criterion was one, but we’ve already seen Mongolian Khan come out of the race to claim the Caulfield Cup. The race was strong, and the form out of it should be too.
Criterion also beat Happy Trails, Kermadec, Fawkner and Pornichet in that race.
Happy Trails is the Cox Plate perennial, having run second two years ago, and a 0.7 length sixth last year, beating home Criterion. Give him an extra length to spread over the two races and he’s a dual Cox Plate winner right now.
He’s been tracking as well as ever this prep, without luck, and we saw what he was capable of last start. Happy Trails is the Fields of Omagh of his era, and it might just be his time to pull a “FOO” and claim victory swooping around them all. At the very least he’s over the odds.
Fawkner was also in last year’s Cox Plate, running a brave second, only being nailed in the shadows of the post.
His run in the Caulfield Stakes was so uncharacteristically poor that we can disregard it, and forgive him. He’ll appreciate the cushier Moonee Valley surface, but has drawn awkwardly in the widest barrier. Damien Oliver will have some decisions to make in the first couple of furlongs.
We know Fawkner is tough and honest, and we can count on him to bounce back and be thereabouts.
Kermadec was the disappointment of the run-on horses in the Caulfield Stakes, and while by no means did he run poorly, he couldn’t make an impression on the first three home once in the straight, despite having every chance to do so.
It’s not the sort of run I could back him to win a Cox Plate, given he’s meeting Criterion and Happy Trails again, and then some. But given his quality, I can’t rule him out either.
Pornichet was another to flop badly in the Caulfield Stakes, but I’m also happy to forgive him based on how badly Fawkner and Entirely Platinum faded too, horses that had been, like Pornichet, racing honestly up until that point.
If you look at how little was between he and Kermadec in the George Main over 1600 metres two starts back, and you can make the case that 2040 metre will suit Pornichet better, he’s at a big price. He’ll be forward, and looking to settle handy to the speed, perhaps in fourth or fifth.
Preferment was such an impressive winner of the Turnbull Stakes, following an amazing win in the Hill Stakes, yet he seems to have been forgotten in Cox Plate markets.
The Turnbull form has been a little mixed, with Royal Descent and Set Square failing badly in the Caulfield Cup, but they had their reasons. We’ve seen Amralah win out of the race, Dandino almost win the Geelong Cup, Happy Trails run second in a strong WFA race, and Gust of Wind and Who Shot Thebarman run extremely well in the Caulfield Cup.
The thinking seems to be that he’s a more natural stayer looking for further, and that the Melbourne Cup might be more his race. I wouldn’t be selling him so short, and you can watch for him charging late if the race pans out for him. If he doesn’t get there, he won’t be missing by much.
Hartnell also comes from the Turnbull Stakes, and really hit his straps late after settling at the rear instead of racing near the speed as usual. It was a lovely run, and he can make his presence felt, like almost all of these will!
The Underwood Stakes is the other key Melbourne form reference, supplying The Cleaner and Mourinho. These two battle-axes have already met three times this campaign, with a 2-1 lead to Mourinho, but The Cleaner’s victory was here at the Valley.
Both are Moonee Valley track specialists, with five wins apiece. Mourinho has claimed lofty scalps like Happy Trails and Fawkner in winning WFA races this year, so must be taken seriously, even though he won’t be. When he’s right, he’s a bloody good horse.
The Cleaner has slowed down tactically this campaign, and it hasn’t been to his detriment. He’s racing better than ever, still attempting to lead all the way, but staying in races longer when not winning them. I’m not sure I love him four weeks into a Cox Plate from his last start, but I hope he gives his fans an almighty shout once more. He’s so great for racing.
Complacent comes down from Sydney, like Winx, but through a different formline. He did beat Kermadec in winning the Chelmsford and only finished a length off Preferment and Magic Hurricane in the Hill Stakes. That’s solid Group 1 form right there, but there’s no room for him in my top six or eight.
The two remaining runners are the other two internationals, Arod and Gailo Chop.
Arod is the better credentialed and more highly fancied of the two, having put together a stellar five-run 2015, taking on Europe’s best for two wins and three placings. He’s never saluted in a Group 1, while running some great races, but all his best form has been around genuine Group 1 horses.
Gailo Chop isn’t as well regarded, but has strong form all the same, albeit he appears to be a much more dominant horse on wet going. He finished a couple of lengths behind Criterion in the Prince of Wales at Ascot, but also has a second to Solow on his resume this year, just like Arod.
For the uninitiated, Solow is arguably the best horse in the world right now, having won five Group 1 races in a row in 2015, travelling through France, Dubai and England. His current picket fence stands at nine, and he’s only been beaten once in his last 13 starts dating back to June 2013.
The point is, Arod and Gailo Chop have claims. Neither of them are just here for show. Like the other visitor, Highland Reel, they are also go-forward horses, so the race promises plenty of speed, particularly if any of them don’t settle in behind The Cleaner and want to take him on.
Mourinho is usually right up there too, but might have to settle just forward of midfield if Vlad Duric can slot him across from barrier 12. Pornichet has drawn 11 but can race comfortably anywhere in the forward half.
The Cox Plate is such a special race, and really anything can happen. These are 14 high-quality horses, all deserving of their place, and all in form, particularly if we’re willing to forgive Fawkner and Pornichet last start.
Internationals. Locals. Melbourne. Sydney. Proven veterans and untapped horses on the rise. Speed horses and swoopers. And then you add the vagaries of Moonee Valley into the mix.
It’s going to be a race to remember.
Selections
1. Preferment
2. Highland Reel
3. Happy Trails
4. Criterion