- Video
-
Club Roar
Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? We want to see it!Content Collections
The Roar Community
- Join
- Login
Race 8 at Flemington on Saturday (4.35pm, AEDT) is the Myer Classic, a Group 1 weight-for-age race for fillies and mares. It was first staged in 1988 and known as the Honda Legend.
In 2004 the race was given Group 1 status, but has retained its current name since 2005. In the past 10 years the race has boasted an impressive honour roll as can be seen in the list below.
Age, barrier draw and starting price are included, along with some relevant statistical data from that period.
2014 – Bonaria 6m (13) $26
2013 – Red Tracer 6m (10) $3
2012 – Appearance 4m (13) $41
2011 – Hurtle Myrtle (13) 5m $16
2010 – Sacred Choice 5m (6) $21
2009 – Typhoon Tracy 4m (12) $2.10
2008 – Forensics 4m (5) $3.25
2007 – Divine Madonna 5m (11) $1.80
2006 – Lyrical Bid 6m (1) $21
2005 – Lotteria 4m (3) $4
Seven out of the 10 winners had Danehill blood in sireline, sired by either a son of Danehill or a grandson. Seven out of 10 also either won or placed in a Group 1 race during its career.
All 10 were aged four to six, finished in the first seven placings at prior start, which were run at distances between 1400 and 2000 metres, and had at least two starts in preparation.
Seven from 10 finished third or worse in their last start, while six from 10 were having either their third or fourth start in preparation.
Nine of the winners had between seven and 21 days between runs, and six drew barrier 11 or wider (three of the last four started from barrier 13)
Six started at Caulfield last start, two came via the Cox Plate and one through the Epson Handicap (there are none from either this year).
Finally, the average winning price has been $13.90.
Analysis
Purely looking at historical data the one most likely to win this race is the Peter Moody-trained Abidewithme. She comes into this race fourth up, has placed at Group 1 level in New Zealand, and is a daughter of Danehill’s champion son Redoute’s Choice (who sired last year’s winner Bonaria).
She has also acquitted herself very well at Group 1 level against males at her past two Australian starts and both times has had to contend with wide barriers. Although wide barriers are quite acceptable in regard to winning this race the inside draw is probably a big plus for her and gives jockey Damien Oliver some options.
Dropping in class won’t hurt and any give in the Flemington surface would definitely be advantageous, and quite possible. She may even start very close to that average winning price.
Royal Descent would seem to have the job ahead of her given most of the historical data, but she is a daughter of Redoute’s Choice and is the class mare of the race. She might be the only mare to have attempted this race off a 2400-metre run prior in the Caulfield Cup.
And the blinkers going on for the first time – odd given her poor winning strike rate – could be very significant. She is perfectly drawn with Hugh Bowman aboard so has plenty of positives. If she could win this race it may well be her last – but what a way to go out!
Perth mare Miss Rose De Lago should be competitive. She looks to have come good at the right time winning in dominant fashion last start at Caulfield. She should lead this field and take a lot of running down. Her ultimate goal this preparation is the Railway Stakes in Perth so another forward showing is on the cards.
Jessy Belle could be the surprise packet. She is yet to perform at Group 1 level but has had little luck at her past two starts. She is also a grandaughter of Danehill, and the wide barrier 14 is not the disadvantage it first looks given the historical data. A mile at Flemington should suit her particularly if the race is truly run and she can get some cover during the race. Coming to the outside in the straight off an economical run would be the ideal scenario.
Stay With Me is a three-year-old filly who has been running times against her own age that suggest she can win this. History doesn’t though, with the likes of Alinghi, Mosheen and Yosei failing to do so in recent years when highly fancied.
The spectacular failures of champion three-year-olds Weekend Hussler and So You Think in the Emirates Stakes at this same track and distance against older horses suggest that it is nearly impossible for a three-year-old to win at 1600 metre here against older counterparts during the spring.
The one thing possibly in her favour is that three of the aforementioned raced on the pace. Alinghi didn’t and she was only just beaten in this race. Stay With Me can also race midfield or worse in the race and that is a pretty good profile, given six of the past 10 have come from eighth or worse on the turn to win. Her wide draw probably necessitates her racing back in the field and it might work in her favour, if she can get some cover.
In-form mare La Passe should run very well again, although she is yet to start at this distance. Sydney mare Slightly Sweet looks a good hope particularly if it does rain. The same goes for the extreme outsider of the field Vergara. She loves a bit of moisture in the surface – the more the better – and trainer Anthony Cummings has a good record taking his horses to Melbourne from Sydney during the spring.
May’s Dream hasn’t done a lot wrong this preparation and has a good chance. Fenway and Amicus need to make major improvements off their last start efforts but the former has a new jockey and the latter has blinkers on first time and would also be suited on a dampened surface.
Azakedellia is an up-and-coming four-year-old mare who has already been well backed despite looking poorly weighted. Solicit has placed twice at this level and can run well despite having only her second run this preparation, and the in-form Politeness can’t be ruled out entirely, despite a seeming dislike for Flemington and the 1600-metre distance.
Conclusion
This should be a great rendition of this classic fillies and mares race and quite a few questions are going to be answered. Will the class of Royal Descent dominate or can three-year-old filly Stay With Me make a little bit of history for her own age?
I’ll stick largely with the historical data, and suggest the following result:
1. Abidewithme
2. Royal Descent
3. Jessy Belle
4. Miss Rose De Lago
Bet suggestion
Each Way investments on Abidewithme and Jessy Belle with a saver bet on the class mare Royal Descent. A small bet on Vergara could also pay big dividends if we were to get significant rain.
Trifectas and first fours look too difficult a task in this race with very few that look to have no chance at all.
Have you ever tried your skills in a Racing daily fantasy competition? Put your best picks to the test for one day and see if you can scoop the pot with Draftstars. Looking for great odds on racing and sport? PlayUp is your best bet. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.