So what are Geelong’s chances this coming year? They’ve been moved up to fourth favourite for next year’s flag – and with some good reason.
Geelong have moved to fix some obvious problems in the off-season and they seem to be staying fairly injury free on the track.
However, as is always the case in premiership years, things have to go right. But which things are most important to the Cats’ campaign in 2016?
Captain Obvious has a look at the main things that Geelong need to go right.
Injuries! Or lack of them
There are three main players that need to stay fit for Geelong to prosper beyond where they’ve been – and they’ve hardly played any games between them.
These are Zac Smith, Dan Menzel and Jackson Thurlow.
Geelong suffered terribly from the lack of a genuinely tall ruck to halve the taps to advantage last year. The Blitz did an admirable job in a Carji Greeves winning year. Rhys Stanley is in the same mould but was injured at a critical juncture. Up against the genuine rucks, Geelong needs real height and Smith at an athletic 206cm can provide this.
I believe all three of those players can be on the ground at once thanks to the speed and endurance of all three.
Geelong’s forward line was one dimensional last year with a struggling Tom Hawkins shouldering most of the load.
Geelong has four old stagers in defence and they need their young blood to stay fit and come along to provide depth and some respite for the older guys.
The young guys continue
Here I’ll call out four names who need to continue their remarkable improvement.
Thurlow heads the list. His poise and anticipation is reminiscent of Matthew Scarlett but there’s no denying he needs to keep learning.
He’s joined by Jake Kolojashnij who is a monster-in-the making. Between those two, the Geelong defence could be as good as it has ever been.
The other two nominees are Darcy Lang and Cory Gregson. Lang can provide that much needed pressure to keep the ball in the forward line and Gregson gives that Stokes-like ability to bob up where he’s not expected.
Gel – lots of gel
And I’m not talking about Andrew Mackie’s hair. This comes down to how well any given six can gel in the midfield and how well they can deliver to the forwards.
This is going to take a lot of understanding and a lot of fine motor practice over the off-season. This is a matter of getting cohesion around ‘who’s in; who’s under; who’s running past? Who’s leading and how do they deliver?’
Game plan
It’s almost like Geelong’s game plan has relied on losing the ball at the centre bounce to get rebounds off half back. Spot the obvious flaw! Then Geelong have consistently bombed it in long and high hoping to get players to run in to an open goal.
Newsflash – it hasn’t worked! Too much predictability has seen opposition coaches plant an intercepting player at centre half back and a ruckman at full back and have three guys climbing all over Hawkins.
Geelong need multiple avenues to goal and they need better clearance work to get it to them. They need Plans B, C and D.
An easier draw!
The old saying is that you need to win against any team to win a flag, but last year the Cats did have one of the hardest draws in the competition. This year they actually have one of the easier draws. By my calculations it’s a three-‘probable’-win-better draw that last year. That could be the difference between tenth and second!
In short, Geelong, with their stars all fully fit and a ruck to halve the taps would have close to the best midfield in the competition. With their possible forward options to help Tom Hawkins out, they could have a lot of paths to goal and cause a lot of headaches again in 2016.
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