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Stage 5 of the Tour Down Under is the decisive part of the race, with the old foe of Willunga Hill to be competed against. It comes up twice on the course, and the final time up should decide who will win the race overall.
The queen stage gets underway in McLaren Vale and does three loops along the coast out towards Snapper Point, where both intermediate sprints occur after 63 and 103 kilometres. The break should take both of these sprints, as they are a fair distance into the race.
After 124 kilometres the race starts to heat up, as the race starts the first of it’s two ascents of Willunga Hill. The first time up is usually fairly simple, with the odd attack over the top trying to distance the peloton.
Usually by the first time up the climb the original break has been caught, meaning that more attacks are likely the first time over the summit.
A fast decent follows as the riders head back to the town of Willunga to set up for the final ascent.
Crosswinds could play a part throughout the stage, but importantly at this time in the race, as the race travels fairly close to the ocean, and the descent and run into town are extremely open.
Have a look at last year’s highlights to see how these crosswinds can affect the race.
When we get to the climb of Willunga Hill for the final time the riders will be faced with a similar task to that what they faced on Stage 3 when they tackled the Corkscrew.
Willunga Hill is slightly longer at three kilometres, but the average gradient is only seven per cent, which stays consistent throughout the climb. This should suit riders like Dennis and Gerrans who like to set a consistent tempo up the climbs.
Gerrans will want the pace of the climb to be fast but manageable. He is not a natural climber, hence why constant accelerations and decelerations in pace may affect him.
Though, this type of climb is usually ridden fairly conservatively until 1.5 kilometres to go when the attacks come.
A rider that will not want the final climb to be at a constant pace is Colombian Sergio Henao, who is in 28 seconds behind on general classification. He is the best natural climber in the race, as shown by his impressive performance on the Corkscrew. He will need to attack earlier on the climb to but pressure onto Gerrans and give himself enough time to make up the gap.
BMC will have the trump cards of both Porte and Dennis. It will be interesting who they will ride for on the stage.
Porte outclimbed Dennis on the Corkscrew, but with Dennis finishing second in the sprint, earnt himself bonus seconds. Dennis is 26 seconds down on Gerrans, whereas Porte is a further 10 seconds down.
Porte has won up Willunga before, so he may get the nod to go for the stage.
Other riders to look out for include Jay McCarhy (Tinkoff), Steve Morabito (FDJ), Ruben Fernandez (Movistar), Domenico Pozzovivo (AG2R La Mondiale), Michael Woods (Cannondale), Rafael Valls (Lampre) and Luis Leon Sanchez (Astana).
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