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Melbourne United and the Perth Wildcats might have finished one and two to earn home court advantage for the NBL semi-finals, but the Illawarra Hawks and New Zealand have the belief, experience and talent to cause upsets.
Melbourne and Perth both finished on 18-10 records as the top two teams in the NBL.
That earns them the right for home court advantage for their semi-final battles with the Breakers and Hawks respectively, but that’s all it guarantees.
Odds-makers might still have United and the Wildcats as favourites to advance to the grand final, but it would be a brave soul to rule out either Illawarra or New Zealand.
The Hawks might not have won a championship since 2001, but they have winners galore in their midst led by coach Rob Beveridge and former league MVP winners Kirk Penney and Kevin Lisch. Penney (2011) and Lisch (2010) also have NBL championship rings.
The Breakers have won four of the last five championships and Tom Abercrombie, Alex Pledger and Mika Vukona have been there for them all. Cedric Jackson has played in three and has never had a season in the NBL without winning the title.
It all begins on Thursday night with Melbourne hosting New Zealand in Game 1 at Hisense Arena. Game 2 will at Vector Arena and the decider if needed back in Melbourne next Friday.
Melbourne might have finished on top, but there is every reason to suggest they head into the series with New Zealand as underdogs despite the odds.
The Breakers were in a horror slump a month ago that threatened their finals place altogether, but things got back on track and their last five games have all been emphatic wins by an average of 15 points.
That included two wins over Melbourne last week and while United had nothing to play for, the Breakers flexed their muscles and gave them a taste of what is now to come in the finals.
The biggest difference for the Breakers the past month has been Jackson. Always a standout player but never a great shooter, he has hit 14 three-pointers in his last four games from 26 attempts.
A fully fit and motivated Jackson is one of the best players in the NBL and he’s shown that every season he’s played, winning three championships as well as an MVP award and two grand final MVPs.
Add in the pure scoring ability of Corey Webster, the exuberance of big man Charles Jackson, post-up ability of Tai Wesley and the championship winning experience of Pledger, Vukona and Abercrombie, and it’s a Breakers team to be feared now that they are back in form and on the same page.
Not only that, but the Breakers play in a physical and hard-nosed fashion ready made for finals and that’s something Melbourne could find difficult to adjust to.
Talent wise, Melbourne have enough to win with Hakim Warrick, Stephen Holt, Todd Blanchfield, Daniel Kickert and Chris Goulding.
They also have some experience off the bench with Brad Hill and Nate Tomlinson. But their true test comes from a Breakers team that nobody has been able to get past the last five years except when Jackson was overseas.
Then you have the Wildcats taking on the Hawks in the other semi-final battle that starts on Friday night at Perth Arena, continues on Sunday in Wollongong and then will return to Perth the following Friday if required.
The script could not be written better with two of Perth’s all-time most successful coaches (Beveridge) and players (Lisch) returning against the Wildcats.
Beveridge and Lisch combined for a championship, two grand finals and a semi-final appearance in their four years together in Perth and now their return to the NBL this season has coincided with the Hawks’ rapid rise from wooden spooners to championship contenders.
It sets up a tantalising finals match up in that sense, but with the clash in styles of the two teams it will be fascinating to see who comes out on top.
The Wildcats won all four match-ups over the Hawks, recording 29 and 23-point thumpings at home and snatching late wins off Illawarra on the road.
That means that Beveridge and Lisch are yet to beat their old team, but what better time to do it than the finals.
Beveridge has retooled the Hawks this season and has them playing an up-tempo, fast-paced and high-scoring style but that doesn’t mean the defence has been ignored.
With Lisch leading the way, the Hawks have employed a full-court pressure defence and through the second half of the season that has begun to pay off.
Given Damian Martin is the master at leading that sort of defence from his time under Beveridge, it will be enthralling to see it in action against the Wildcats.
That has seen the Hawks average 94.2 points a game and hit 100 points in ten of their last 17 matches.
If they are able to play at their fast pace and get off plenty of shots, they have too much firepower with Lisch, Penney, Oscar Forman, Rhys Martin, Cody Ellis, Tim Coenraad and Jarrad Weeks for the Wildcats to go with them.
But the Wildcats won’t be trying to get in a shootout. They have a clear advantage in the big men department over the Hawks with Nate Jawai, Tom Jervis and Matt Knight.
While Forman, Larry Davidson and Ellis will try, they are outsized and outmatched by that trio leaving too much for AJ Ogilvy to do.
That’s why the Wildcats will attempt to slow the pace down, make it a half-court game as much as possible and pound the ball inside to target whoever is not being guarded by Ogilvy, and in turn try to get Ogilvy into foul trouble as well.
That has worked a treat for the Cats so far this season against the Hawks and if they are able to get their way again, it will be a long series for the Hawks especially with them needing to end their drought in Perth that has stretched for 21 games dating back to November 5, 2005.
So while the Wildcats and United head into the semi-finals favourites, don’t be in the slightest surprised if the grand final features one, or both, of the Breakers and Hawks.
NBL semi-final fixtures (AEDT)
Thursday
Game 1 – Melbourne United v New Zealand Breakers (Hisense Arena) – Fox Sports 3, 7.30pm
Friday
Game 1 – Perth Wildcats v Illawarra Hawks (Perth Arena) – Fox Sports 3, 9.30pm
Saturday
Game 2 – New Zealand Breakers v Melbourne United (Vector Arena) – Fox Sports 3, 5.30pm
Sunday
Game 2 – Illawarra Hawks v Perth Wildcats (WIN Entertainment Centre) – Fox Sports 3, 3pm
Friday, February 26
Game 3s (if required)
Melbourne United v New Zealand Breakers (Hisense Arena) – Fox Sports 3, 7.30pm
Perth Wildcats v Illawarra Hawks (Perth Arena) – Fox Sports 3, 9.30pm