Aussie Rules football is nearly here, and with it comes the annual attempt to predict how the ladder will shape up.
Last year I took the five-round approach, and it failed more than it succeeded, so this year a traditional approach will suffice.
I will finish with a full 18 place, but the meat of the discussion is more around why.
Top-four contenders
I don’t think they will be the number one team, but I’m buying into the hype that Geelong will be in the top four.
I also have Hawthorn in there – the formula for beating the Hawks is simple, but actually having the ability to pull it off is another – I don’t see them losing enough games to miss a qualifying final berth.
West Coast and Fremantle make up the rest of my top four. They both will win most of their home games, and a return better than 55 per cent away should get them into the qualifying finals. Fremantle will still likely play their defensive game, and West Coast hopefully have a fire lit under them after their disappointing display on grand final day.
The remainder of the eight
I’m putting Port Adelaide, Richmond, North Melbourne and Collingwood as the other finals contenders.
Port Adelaide won’t crack the top four, but will certainly be in the hunt. North Melbourne were in the preliminary finals last season, I don’t see them falling out that quickly. Richmond still have a decent list, snd should win more than they lose.
As for Collingwood, if not now, then when? The Magpies see something in Nathan Buckley to give him another extension, maybe that will inspire confidence in him that will trickle down into the squad.
What that means however, is there are a notable omissions to the top eight.
In the hunt for the eight
Kurt Tippett has been a flop since heading to the Swans (given the hype), and Lance Franklin can’t carry match-winning scores week in and week out. With an ageing list, and maybe too much lost to get and keep the two marquees, Sydney won’t be there in the finals.
Their sister team, the Giants, won’t be far away, but a couple of injuries could derail them. Another season of experience, and they surely will be in there in 2017.
Western Bulldogs and the Adelaide Crows will also fall short. For the Bulldogs, last year’s form will have teams taking a lot more notice. As for the Adelaide Crows, a new coach will hopefully see things settle down off the field, but a finals berth is beyond them.
As a St Kilda fan, I would say finals in 2016 is a stretch, but not completely outside the realm of smokiest smokies. A few upsets to the finals contenders are on the cards, but so will some nasty smashings.
Gold Coast Suns went all or nothing on Gary Ablett, and got nothing. He will still be a great player this season, but that shoulder will be a lingering concern. They’ve lost a couple of players to trades and injury, so this season might be a scrub.
Melbourne and Brisbane will be around the same, but hopefully build their lists and keep players.
Carlton and Essendon will battle for the spoon.
Grand finalists: Hawthorn versus West Coast
Premiers: Hawthorn
Brownlow: tie between Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong) and Robbie Gray (Port Adelaide)
Wooden spoon: Essendon
Final ladder
Hawthorn
Geelong
West Coast
Fremantle
Port Adelaide
North Melbourne
Collingwood
Richmond
Sydney
Western Bulldogs
Adelaide
GWS
St.Kilda
Melbourne
Brisbane
Gold Coast
Carlton
Essendon
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