Last year I tried my hand at five-round predications, and regularly got them wrong.
This year, I am taking a more conservative approach, and putting on teachers’ cap with a report card of how the teams are tracking based on 2016 preseason indicators.
Five weeks into the season, and there is a positive vibe around the league. Scoring is on the increase, there are close games going down right the wire, and the umpires are totally not influencing the final result whatsoever with free kicks to Hawthorn.
I have split my findings into more simplified expectations than a straight ranking from one to 18. And as with most report cards, I will start the positives.
Teams that are exceeding expectations
The Adelaide Crows were widely tipped to be falling down the ladder post Pat Dangerfield, and haven’t they proved the footy experts wrong. They are playing an attacking brand of footy, which benefits from Eddie Betts magic from the pocket, and the former man mullet Tex Walker taking the big grab.
Carlton and Essendon have also been exceeding expectations, as many punters weren’t expecting them to have won any games to this point. Melbourne Demons, with their current streak of two games, also find there way into exceeding their preseason expectations to this point.
Teams that are above expectations
I worked these teams based on how many wins they should have, and they beat that marker. So we have the ladder-leading North Melbourne, along with Brisbane, GWS and St.Kilda all performing better than what was expected of them.
Going 5 and 0 is always above what the punters would have predicted for the Roos, GWS sitting sixth with a big win against Geelong, St.Kilda are showing signs of a future premiership tilt earlier than expected and Brisbane aren’t going down without a fight.
Teams that met expectations
Based on the fixtures at the start of the season, I had West Coast and Gold Coast suns a lock for three wins and two losses. And they haven’t disappointed, giving taking home the chocolates three times in five attempts.
Not much more to add, they performed about what experts were predicting from them.
Teams that are probably expecting more
The unpopular choices, as the Bulldogs have had a slew of injuries to key players, but they would have been eyeing off a potential 5-0 start to the season.
Equally Sydney, Hawthorn and Geelong would have been looking at 5-0 starts given their draws. After Geelong beat Hawthorn, not many people would have been tipping against them versus GWS.
The Hawks have fallen over the finish line by three points three weeks in a row against less fancied opposition and Sydney dropping the game to Adelaide, which at the start of the year they would of expected to win.
Teams that need to improve
Collingwood, Richmond, Port Adelaide and Fremantle. Most experts had three if not all four in the top eight by the end of the season.
Collingwood the best of the bunch after a percentage-boosting win against Essendon, which of course is nothing to celebrate. Port nearly lost to St.Kilda in Round 1, and Fremantle not even picking up a home win against Carlton has to be ringing the alarm bells.
Richmond’s loss to Melbourne including a suspension to Alex Rance just rubs salt into the wound.
So there we have a it folks, are more simplistic look at how teams are tracking. I have decided to steer away from Power Rankings, as Michael DiFabrizio is already doing a fine job.
But what do you think, have I been too harsh on some teams? Have I not gone hard enough last year’s finalists? Let us know in the comments below.
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