This Friday we see a clash of heavyweights in their own forms of transition, as the Swans and Hawks do battle.
Sydney have an impressive and under-appreciated record. Since 1995, they have only missed the finals three times – in 2000, 2002 and 2009. With that sustained success has come five grand finals and two premierships.
Every year they appear to prove the experts wrong, with a tumble down the ladder again predicted this pre-season.
On top of this, the Swans have had significant player movements over the last three years, saying farewell to Jude Bolton, Ryan O’Keefe, Rhyce Shaw, Adam Goodes, Lewis Roberts-Thompson, Nick Malceski, Marty Mattner, Mike Pyke, Craig Bird, and Shane Mumford to retirements, trades and salary cap pressure.
That is a huge core from both the 2005 and 2012 premiership teams.
While this may surprise, the greatest loss in that group was Mumford. His value to a team was exemplified when he went down with injury for Greater Western Sydney last year, and the Giants’ trajectory headed south. The Swans centre (despite a great core of midfielders) has not been the same since the big man’s departure.
Despite these player losses, this season’s regeneration with a relatively young playing list (and someone called Buddy) has pleasantly surprised the Bloods faithful, and they are on track to challenge for a top-four spot, despite introducing six debutantes to date.
The Swans are in the middle of their two toughest assignments in 2016, playing consecutive matches at the MCG against their bogey teams in Richmond and Hawthorn.
Both the Tigers and Hawks seem to exploit the Swans’ team defensive ethos, and create many more one-on-one contests in their defensive 50 than other sides, exposing the honest Ted Richards, Heath Grundy and often-undersized Dane Rampe playing as the third tall.
Likeiwise, the Hawks have had their own rebuilding to do this year, yet are positioning themselves nicely for a crack at the four-peat.
Comparing to last season’s 4-4 start, they are presently 6-2, and despite long-term injuries to significant players, and the loss to retirement of some of their key veterans, the Hawks are going about their job in fine fashion.
There was no greater example than the win against Richmond, playing without Luke Hodge, Sam Mitchell and Jarryd Roughead collectively for the first time in almost a decade.
Yes, they had their treble of three-point wins, but teams that go deep into the season find a way to succeed in most of the close ones.
It is further kudos to Alastair Clarkson with the regeneration of the forward line, first without Lance Franklin and now without Roughead.
The Swans are also still mentally plagued by the Hawks’ 2014 grand final onslaught, and it will be an interesting test of their progress if these scars are still apparent at the home of football.
Last week was their first roadbump in the season; this week escalates to a firm test of Sydney’s premiership credentials.
Even though we have only just passed the first third of the season, this is a classic ‘eight-point game’, and could be a key determinant to the top-four jostle.
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Apart from one five-goal game, GWS forward Toby Greene has only kicked six goals from the other eight games. He's traditionally had success against the Western Bulldogs.
Bayley Fritsch should become an even more important player from a structural perspective, given key forward Jacob van Rooyen will be unavailable due to concussion.
Tom Hawkins returns to familiar surroundings of Geelong - but is it the tonic he needs to regain some of his confidence back after a goalless four games.
Jeremy Finlayson should be a welcome addition to the Port Adelaide forward line after kicking four goals in the SANFL last week.
Last, year in the second showdown, Adelaide destroyed Port by 47 points with a staggering 20 marks inside 50 with Tex Walker the main star.
There’s no disputing that Cam Guthrie will be important against Melbourne, given Patrick Dangerfield is set to miss due to injury.
