The 2016 AFL Grand Final pits everyone’s second team, the Western Bulldogs, against the minor premiers, the Sydney Swans.
While the flag is what the fans after, the question that every other footy lover across Australia wants the answer to is: ‘Who will take home the 2016 Norm Smith Medal?’
So let’s take a look at some of the players (along with a few underdogs) that should shine bright enough to put their name in contention to claim Normy.
The Bont
Odds: $7
Why he will win:
Marcus Bontempelli’s form in the finals so far has been inspirational, and his style of play not only impacts the game, but also gets noticed by crowds, umpires and, no doubt, those in charge of voting for the Norm Smith.
» Why the Western Bulldogs will win
» Why the Sydney Swans will win
» Expert predictions for the Grand Final
He’s also got form against the Swans on his side, putting in an inspirational performance in Round 15 when the Dogs snuck past the Swans at the SCG.
Why he won’t win:
The story of Bontempelli’s finals so far has been consistently slow starts followed by bringing it home strong. If the Swans can keep him quiet early on, it might be too big of an ask for him to go from zero to hero in the second half of a Grand Final.
That being said, he did exactly that in Round 15 after a quiet first quarter! (Is he that good already!?)
The Roar thinks:
It doesn’t make a huge amount of sense that Bontempelli has found himself as the favourite, considering the quality of his opponents and that the Bulldogs will start as outsiders.
Outshining an incredibly strong Sydney midfield, and overcoming any unwanted attention that will come his way makes his price seem slightly short.
Dan Hannebery
Odds: $8
Why he will win:
Hannebery fell just shy of claiming the Norm Smith in 2012. On that day he had 29 touches and a goal, but was pipped for the BOG by Ryan O’Keefe’s 15 tackles.
He’s a big game player and has been arguably the Swans’ most consistent throughout the finals, picking up 31, 31 and 29 touches in their three games.
Why he won’t win:
If the Swans win, he’ll be up vying for the award alongside the likes of Josh Kennedy and Luke Parker. That’s tough competition.
The Roar thinks:
We’re positive Hannebery will be in the conversation come the final siren, but he might find himself getting just pipped by one of his midfield teammates once again.
Buddy Franklin
Odds: $9
Why he will win:
This will be Buddy’s fifth Granny and it looks likely that he’ll make his presence felt both on the field and on the scoreboard. He’s scored 14 goals in his last three games against the Dogs and has been finding his range the last two weeks (six goals) after going goalless against the Giants.
Why he won’t win:
It’s not common for a key forward to step up and claim the medal, and to outshine the quality that will be on display in the midfield he’ll likely need to kick more than a handful. But if a key forward is going to win it, Buddy’s the one that can!
The Roar thinks:
Looking at a list of recent winners, it’s just going too far against the grain to tip a forward to take home the award.
It’s easy to see any one of this trio heading home with the Norm Smith. (AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
Isaac Heeney
Odds: $14
Why he will win:
Has been one of Sydney’s finest in the wins that have got them to the final and has earned a shorter price accordingly. By all accounts, he appears to thrive on the increased pressure that finals bring, and provide some moments of undeniable brilliance.
Why he won’t win:
Only racked up four disposals the last time these sides met.
The Roar thinks:
In incredible form, but his ghostie against the Dogs last outing leaves us questioning his short price.
Jason Johannisen
Odds: $21
Why he will win:
He’s got run. He’s got X-factor. And if the Dogs get up, you can be sure it’ll be in part because this man is providing run through the midfield and drive off halfback.
Why he won’t win:
There’s a lot of things that are going to need to go right for the Western Bulldogs if they are going to topple the Swans; those things will include the likes of Luke Dahlhaus, Lachie Hunter, Marcus Bontempelli and Tom Liberatore having big games and outshining the backmen.
The Roar thinks:
He’s the kind of bloke you’d love to see win it, but unless he gets on the end of another goal after the siren for the win, he’ll likely be outshone.
Tom Liberatore
Odds: $23
Why he will win:
Showed his ability to turn a game when the Dogs downed the Swans in Round 15 with an immense performance in the third quarter.
Having a Liberatore earn the award would be simply poetic.
Why he won’t win:
The Bulldogs are the underdogs.
The Roar thinks:
Liber is our red hot smokey. Let’s see Liber Snr tear up on national television!
Dane Rampe
Odds: $23
Why he will win:
The reality is that the Bulldogs’ forward line is far less imposing that the Swans’, so if a backman has any chance of doing a Brian Lake and taking it out, someone like Rampe fits the bill.
If the Swans’ defence gets on top, and Rampe manages to find a bit of space, he could take a lot of marks and provide plenty of drive.
Why he won’t win:
He’s a backman.
The Roar thinks:
Our least favourite smokey, if we’re being honest!
Josh Kennedy and Luke Parker
Odds: $8 and $9 respectively
After combining for 40 votes on Brownlow night, there is no good reason why either of these guys won’t win it.
Parker, in particular, deserves to be favourite to take it out.
The only reason you wouldn’t back them is because you’re looking for some more value!
Lachie Hunter and Luke Dahlhaus
Odds: $18 and $16 respectively
Hunter, in particular, was immense against the Swans last time they met, picking up 31 touches and a goal, but has been a little quiet throughout the finals so far, picking up 26, 21 and 19 disposals respectively. Perhaps he’s due a big game?
Like Hannebery, Dahlhaus has been the most consistent possession winner for the Dogs throughout the finals (averaging 28) and looks likely to be in the conversation.
| Player | Odds |
| Marcus Bontempelli | $7 |
| Josh P. Kennedy | $8 |
| Dan Hannebery | $8 |
| Luke Parker | $9 |
| Lance Franklin | $9 |
| Isaac Heeney | $14 |
| Luke Dahlhaus | $16 |
| Tom Mitchell | $16 |
| Lachie Hunter | $18 |
| Kieren Jack | $21 |
| Matthew Boyd | $21 |
| Jason Johannisen | $21 |
| Liam Picken | 23 |
| Dane Rampe | 23 |
| Tom Liberatore | $23 |
| Jack Macrae | $23 |
| Kurt Tippett | $28 |
| Jake Stringer | $34 |
| Jarrad McVeigh | $34 |
| Ben McGlynn | $34 |
| Gary Rohan | $34 |
| Easton Wood | $34 |
| Clay Smith | $34 |
| Caleb Daniel | $34 |
| Jake Lloyd | $41 |
| Josh Dunkley | $51 |
| Callum Mills | $51 |
| Tory Dickson | $51 |
| Tom Papley | $51 |
| Toby McLean | $67 |
| Lin Jong | $67 |
| Tom Boyd | $81 |
| Shane Biggs | $81 |
| Jordan Roughead | $81 |
| Koby Stevens | $101 |
| Nick Smith | $101 |
| Sam Naismith | $101 |
| Matt Suckling | $101 |
| George Hewett | $101 |
| Dale Morris | $101 |
| Joel Hamling | $101 |
| Zac Jones | $101 |
| Xavier Richards | $101 |
| Tom Campbell | $101 |
| Jeremy Laidler | $101 |
| Heath Grundy | $101 |
| Zaine Cordy | $126 |
| Fletcher Roberts | $151 |
*Odds correct as of 5pm, Thursday September 29.
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