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There are three race meetings this Monday, with some pretty good depth across the programs. Here are my five plays across the afternoon.
Bet 1: Win – Lismore Race 4, number four: Splitter
Odds of $4 at the moment is intriguing. The betting will tell you how forward she is. If she’s right, she should be too fast, but if she drifts alarmingly to $6 or more, the ticket may as well be confetti. I think she gets over rather comfortably from the draw to lead, and at Lismore, if you’re leading or on the rail, you’ve won the battle and nearly the war. Her Doomben trial win was very good and the Gollan stable have a decent strike rate when coming to NSW.
Bet 2: Each-way – Lismore Race 7, number 11: Absolute Gem
The stable doesn’t mind having a crack at one at odds, and the set-up for this mare says she could run a race at double figures. She ran over 1700 metres at Grafton last time out and that track in recent months has really played to those near the speed, which didn’t suit her that afternoon. Lismore is a similar track, but there looks to be really good speed out wide, so hopefully Traecey can ease back for cover and launch late.
Bet 3: Win – Albury Race 1, number two: Could It Be Magic
Albury, heavy 10 – it’s thrill-seeking, but I think you can start the day off nicely with this girl for Luke Pepper. Formerly with Jason Warren, she had her first run for the new team at Wagga, where she got a mile back but worked home with purpose to run a narrow second. Two placings from as many starts on soft going – if she ticks the heavy track box, she should win.
Bet 4: Each-way – Moe Race 6, number five: Spudfest
Watch the replay of the resumption from this horse. He looked a pretty solid maiden at Ballarat, and if you were on, like me, just forget he went around. He was badly held up when he appeared to be going really well, and he was untested to the line. He’s $18 at the moment, which is just an absolutely crazy price. Should be a single-figure chance.
Bet 5: Each-way – Moe Race 7, number nine: Patient
If she runs up to her recent jump out, she’ll be winning. A talented but frustrating mare for Richard Laming that resumes off a 15-week break. She last raced over 1200 metres at the Valley where she led and tired behind Scoliaro. A goodm fresh performer that loves the wet, her recent Cranbourne jump out was outstanding. Also, Chelsea Macfarlane is on and her strike rate with the stable is 57 per cent last 12 months. Keen on the $6.50.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter @AdamPage1991 for more tips across Australia for the week. Good luck!
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