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Some good racing has been assembled for Thursday, when my focus will be at Newcastle, where the program looks pretty good. Here are my five plays for the afternoon.
Bet 1: Win – Townsville Race 2, number five: Better Future
He brings inferior form to these, but he’s racing in career best form. There was a lot to like about his win over 1400 metres here three weeks ago when chasing a hot speed and wearing down the talented Bold Shot to just grab the win. He has a good record at the mile and should get a lovely sit just off the speed. I’m keen on his chances, but I think you’ll get better than $2.90.
Win bet: Tote
Bet 2: Win – Newcastle Race 2, number six: Song And A Prayer
She looks a good thing at a good-things price, but I’d take it. She just looks better than these off the back of a really eye-catching effort over 1400 metres at Kembla last time, where they didn’t go hard in front while she was back near last and had to come wide on the turn. She did a good job to get as close as she did. Blinkers first time, Angland on – she looks well placed.
Win odds: $2.15 (Beteasy)
Bet 3: Win – Newcastle Race 5, number eight: Evalina
I’m stunned this girl isn’t favourite. Kris Lees trains this daughter of I Am Invincible, who debuted over this track and distance in April, when she was wide throughout but stuck on well when second to Zerchois. Her trials leading in have been outstanding, the latest seeing her beat Miss Fabulass. That reads very well for a 900-metre Newcastle maiden.
Win odds: $5 (Sportsbet)
Bet 4: Each-way – Newcastle Race 8, number nine: Sunreel
Odds of $5 is a bit thin, so I think closer to race time you’ll hopefully get an each-way price between $6.50 and $7. I’m not sure she beat much in the maiden last time at Kempsey, but the manner in which she did it was very impressive, with her turn of foot late quite evident to see. There’s more depth here, but now she’s got a win she can go on with it.
Each-way bet: Tote
Bet 5: Win – Northam Race 3, number 11: Dance Music
No price was up at the time of writing, but I’m hoping for black figures. Realistically I suspect she will start silly short, largely because she’s very good to the eye if the two trials are any guide, the latest seeing her bolt up over 1000 metres at Belmont. She has a good draw, Pike takes the ride and the field looks thin depth-wise.
Win bet: Tote
All odds correct at the time of writing.
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