We’re on the eve of history at Moonee Valley this weekend as Winx looks to complete her awesome foursome of Cox Plate victories. Across Friday night and Saturday afternoon there are 16 races before we get to see the legendary mare, and everything else is preamble.
Cox Plate
Winx is the $1.22 favourite to take home her fourth Cox Plate, and given there is nothing else to say about her remarkable abilities we should instead reflect on her previous three.
2015 saw Winx start $4.60 favourite off the back of an Epsom Handicap win that showed off her remarkable turn of foot. She drew the inside barrier in her first start at Moonee Valley, and Hugh Bowman just had to bide his time for a split to come behind Criterion – when it did, they didn’t have to pass a horse as she accelerated away to leave mouths agape when scoring by five lengths.
It’s worth remembering Highland Reel was third behind her that day, and subsequently won six Group 1 races around the world, and finished second in an Arc de Triomphe. Stick that in the face of anyone questioning her international credentials.
In 2016, the Cox Plate was set up as a match-race between champion and challenger. Winx had won seven races in-between Cox Plates, including five Group 1s. Hartnell had established himself as world class in his own right – having won five races in Europe before coming to Australia, he won a BMW and was off three wins in a row heading into the Cox Plate, including donkey-licking a quality Turnbull Stakes field.
Winx was sent out $1.80 and Hartnell $5, but it turned out to be no race at all. In what was Winx’s most dominant performance, she saw off the challenge and won by a widening eight lengths. It was truly stunning.
Hugh Bowman on Winx. (Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images)
2017 saw Winx face her stiffest test in a Cox Plate. The starting price of $1.18 reflected the status Winx had deservedly built up, and the question wasn’t one of how, but how far. As ever in sport though, a seemingly predictable result often becomes anything but.
Everything was going swimmingly for the first two-thirds of the race. Jockey Hugh Bowman had kept the great mare out of trouble in the third pair and popped her out at about the 800m. Leader Gailo Chop, a multiple Group 1 winner in his own right, kicked as well as he could, but Winx whipped around him as she does.
All eyes were on the champion of our times so few noticed that Humidor, a talented but enigmatic galloper, was tracking up nicely behind her as they rounded the home turn.
Moonee Valley has a famously short straight, but it always appears longer in brutal Cox Plates. Humidor started doing what no horse ever does and that is take ground off Winx, challenging her all the way to the line and giving everyone a moment’s pause in the meantime. Of course, Winx lifted right when she had to, and was holding almost a half length margin on the line. In doing so, she broke her own track record, confirming that Humidor had run the race of his life to get so close.
What is in store for us this Saturday? Which of her rivals will step up to make a race of it? Will Bowman ride her as arrogantly as he did last year? Will he give a big head start as he has done to his detriment a few times on Winx? It would be in his best interests to keep the leaders in sight so that bad judgement or bad luck does not bring about her undoing.
Benbatl is seen as the horse most likely to defeat Winx, if there’s to be one. He’s a three time Group 1 winner, each one in different regions of the world, so his credentials are sound.
Benbatl won the Caulfield Stakes last start, the same race Winx won on the way to her 2016 Cox Plate. He’s likely to go forward and if not lead at least be in front of the mare so as to give her something to catch.
Humidor is back to see if he can test Winx out again, and has been racing well this campaign. He won the Memsie Stakes, and finished third behind Homesman (second in the Caulfield Cup) in the Underwood and third behind Benbatl in the Caulfield Stakes. Blinkers go on him as they did before the Cox Plate last year, so we can expect him to peak again.
King’s Will Dream backs up from the Caulfield Cup, and has put together a great campaign without winning. He has three Group 1 placings to his name, including a third to Winx in the Turnbull Stakes, and will probably enjoy a box seat run to give him a chance of running a drum.
Avilius is on the Melbourne Cup trail and using the Cox Plate as his lead up. Dropping back from 2500m of the Bart Cummings and up to weight-for-age are against him, but he’s a winning machine this prep and deserves his place. Look for him to be settling back and running on.
D’Argento is the stablemate of Winx, but for some reason hasn’t drawn as much attention as her this week. He’s proven himself a solid Group 1 competitor across his last half a dozen starts and gets his chance to mix it with the best.
Rostropovich is the X-factor of the race, still a three-year-old by northern hemisphere standards, trained by Aiden O’Brien and to be ridden by Ryan Moore. That same set of circumstances saw the 2014 Cox Plate won by Adelaide. Look for him to be our leader – Moore is arguably the best jockey in the world so you know he’ll rate his horse perfectly in front.
The Cox Plate – one of Australia’s best sporting events. (AAP Image/Hamish Blair)
Savvy Coup is the remaining horse in the field, a dual Group 1 winning mare in New Zealand having her second start in Australia after running fifth in the ATC Oaks behind Unforgotten in the autumn. It will be interesting to see how she measures up as a four year old, and whether she can be a player on the WFA scene over the next year or two.
With two internationals likely to go forward, do they make the race a true test of stamina, which should only play to Winx’s strengths as long as Bowman doesn’t make any calamitous errors of judgement. Or do they try and run it softly, and steal a march by gradually upping the tempo and trying to catch others off-guard.
We’re going to see a tactical affair, with plenty of intrigue and no doubt moments where we hold our breath; it will be a true test of athletes both equine and human. This is the Cox Plate, the weight-for-age championship of Australasia – we wouldn’t have it any other way.
Selections:
1.Win
2.Humidor
3.Benbatl
4.Rostropovich
Manikato Stakes
The Manikato is the “other” Group 1 of the weekend, to be run on Friday night. It has drawn a high-class field with cases for a number of chances.
US Navy Flag and Brave Smash come from the Everest, where they weren’t suited by a heavy track and should enjoy getting back onto firmer ground. Brave Smash has blinkers going back on, and will be suited by the fast speed. US Navy Flag should get a beautiful run sitting where he likes from barrier two.
Houtzen and Tulip are four-year-old mares than ran in last years Everest. Houtzen is the most likely of these and ran fifth in the Moir Stakes, a race where Brave Smash ran second. She won’t be far away with even luck.
Malaguerra, Voodoo Lad and Jungle Edge are hardy veterans. Malaguerra is the best credentialed of these and has an outstanding first-up record. Voodoo Lad has been racing in great heart at the levels below this but loves the Moonee Valley 1200m. He’s just so consistent. Jungle Edge needs it wet to figure here, but won’t get it.
Aiden O’Brien has three travelling sprinters to complement US Navy Flag. Spirit of Valor has acclimatised well based on his first-up second to Ball of Muscle in the Schillaci, beating Voodoo Lad home. Fleet Review and Intelligence Cross didn’t do anything in the Schillaci but the former was third to US Navy Flag in the July Cup three starts back; the latter beat that horse home the start before.
The Manikato Stakes. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Spright ran third in the Moir Stakes first-up at big odds, in what was a career best run. She’ll need another one to figure in the finish here. Invincible Star looks a bit of a forgotten horse after a mixed campaign, and is probably over the odds. She had a slot in the Everest before failing last start, so is the interesting runner.
The two other horses in the field are primary chances, and in fact are the two favourites.
Sunlight is the lone three-year-old in the field, a speedy filly that will surely try and lead with only 51kg’s on her back. She led all the way last start in a soft kill against her own age and sex, and will need to set faster fractions here – dropping 7kg’s from that win is a big positive in that regard.
Kementari has been expected to win a race by now in his four starts this campaign, but has kept running well despite not saluting the judge. He’s had a six week freshen to target the sprint races after being stretched out to a mile in searching for Group 1 glory as a four-year-old. Where he gets to from gate 12 is the tricky one for him.
Sunlight should be the leader from her cushy barrier, with US Navy Flag the most likely to test her out. Invincible Star should be someone where up there too, as long as she jumps, and Tulip is unlikely to be far away. Jungle Edge will also add to the speed mix.
Selections:
1.Sunlight
2.Brave Smash
3.US Navy Flag
4.Kementari
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