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Do you have that December 28 feeling? I refer to that quiet lull between the two big celebrations of Christmas and New Year, when there doesn’t seem a whole lot going on.
At least at that time of year, the Boxing Day Test would be about half over and holding our interest.
Then again, there was certainly a lot to emerge from the Melbourne Cup to occupy the mind. The loss of my tip – The Cliffsofmore – was tragic, but these things happen in racing.
Of more lasting significance is the continuation of the Cup on an extremely uncertain road, down which not all punters may be prepared to follow.
I wrote in an earlier piece that the Cup seemed to be evolving at an exponential clip, such that yesterday’s rules for finding the winner just don’t apply any more.
While I focused on the Aidan O’Brien method of giving his star a runner two Group 1 hit-outs before the Cup, the easier trend to spot was the inexperience and light weights of recent winners.
To highlight the point, the last three Cup victors have been the three most lightly raced to win the event this century. This trend is becoming more pronounced with each passing year.
Almandin had 11 runs going into the Cup, Rekindling nine and Cross Counter a mere seven. At this rate, an unraced Irish runner will probably win in 2020.
Almandin (AAP Image/Mal Fairclough)
Jokes aside, the recent history of the Cup does raise a few important questions. The first and obvious one is how a horse like Cross Counter actually qualified for the Cup.
I’m sure there is a very reasonable answer to this, but the obvious follow-up question is whether these inexperienced lightweights are receiving too much of a handicapping advantage.
I wonder if it might be time to introduce an upper limit for the top weight or a lower limit for the bottom weight. Both would have the same result. A 6.5 differential between the top and bottom weights is starting to look too great.
I understand that high-quality handicap racing does set Australia apart in a positive way, but I do feel that the appearance of so many lighter-weighted runners in the top placings yesterday and in other Cups does represent food for thought.
While the answer to these questions can wait until another day, one that will not is which horse is likely to win this year’s Oaks.
The Wakeful Stakes run on Derby day usually provides the Oaks winner, but not always. Wakeful runners dominate the market for tomorrow’s running, but I am reading the Wakeful somewhat differently from how others seem to be.
I thought Qafila provided the most outstanding Oaks trial last Saturday. She really hit the line strongly, and I just don’t see why she currently sits at a far longer price than the two favourites.
To my eyes, Amphitrite is a huge query at the distance, while Verry Elegant was ordinary in the Wakeful. Darren Weir should never be underestimated, but the odds on offer for Qafila of about $8 seem very generous.
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