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Opinion
There are two meetings to look at on Wednesday night, with my focus being on Bathurst and Geelong.
Below are the best bets for the respective programs.
Best bet: Race 1, Number 2, Dance Away
He’s a good thing to start the program. There is a lot of class about his first-up win here two weeks ago. He did all the work outside the speed but took the lead upon straightening and was strong late in getting the job done. He has drawn better. He has the gate speed to lead and prove the one to beat quite clearly.
Next best: Race 3, Number 3, Old Luke
He has been costly from a punter’s perspective his past couple but to counter that, he has done a mountain of work on speed in those runs, sitting outside the speed and feeling the pinch late. That all changes this time around. This horse should get to the front comfortably and from there, it’s a painless watch.
Value: Race 4, Number 1, Taylors Watch
I can make a case for this horse at a price. The problem with her is that she just has no gate speed and that was the case when racing here last Wednesday. She just got shuffled back severely after showing no gate speed and that pretty much ended her chances. If she can hold a forward spot, she’s going well enough to be dangerous at a price.
Best bet: Race 3, Number 5, Honey Bourbon
It is a good test here for this filly, taking on a last-start Group 1 winner in Don’t Care, but she has race fitness on her side along with the barrier draw. Did she beat much at Charlton last time? No, but she did it from the front, was impressive and it was against older horses. She has the gate speed to lead and I just hope she turns this into a proper race, not a sit or sprint.
Next best: Race 9, Number 9, Dream Over
It is a nice little race to end the program. This gelding races best when leading but with a touch of class, he can overcome that, especially with Chris Alford steering. Forget he went around last time. He galloped away from the outset, which ended his chances. He has good metro form and just needs to do everything right.
Value: Race 1, Number 8, Safe Under Fire
It is a tricky race to start the meeting so I am happy to speck one at a price and this mare should be double figures and better. This horse is lightly raced and is building up a solid record without jumping up and down about it. But she has gate speed, as has the one drawn directly in front, so if it holds up and this horse lands behind in the box seat, she’ll be dangerous.
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