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Opinion
The countdown to Round 1, 2023 has officially begun – so throughout January, I’ll be looking at all 18 AFL clubs and doing my best to put together an optimum team for the new year.
I’ll take injuries and suspensions into account, but this won’t be a predicted team for Round 1 – think of it more as a guide to what your team’s best 23 (the 22 starting players plus the new unrestricted substitute) could look like as the year unfolds.
Today, it’s time to unpack the reigning wooden spooners, North Melbourne. Check out the links below if your team has already been done.
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>> The Bombers have promise… but can Brad Scott unlock it straight away?
>> Can the most important teenager in the AFL deliver for the Dockers?
>> Is this the Cat who can fill the shoes of the greatest captain ever?
>> Can return of the King propel the Suns into September at last?
>> Just how Tiger-like will Adam Kingsley make his Giants?
>> Forgotten B&F winner the key to getting Hawthorn back on track
>> Here’s how the Dees can make ‘Gawndy’ work
The Kangaroos were utterly abysmal in 2022, in just about every way you can be utterly abysmal. They struggled to win the ball and couldn’t move it with any quality when they did, their forwards struggled with lack of opportunity and their backline was frequently under siege. Then there’s the matter of their number one draft pick and brightest beacon of hope, Jason Horne-Francis, jumping ship in acrimonious circumstances come season’s end.
The one positive was the arrival of master coach Alastair Clarkson – and even that was immediately soured with serious allegations against him during his time at Hawthorn. I was pretty strong in my thoughts on those allegations at the time, but with the scandal fizzling out in the months since, there’s no doubt now that Clarko will be at the helm to start 2023, and for the foreseeable future.
Already hailed as one of the greatest coaches in AFL history, Clarkson’s stint with the Roos will define his legacy. If he can turn around one of modern footy’s worst ever teams, even if the ultimate success eludes him, it will be hard to dispute his place at the very pinnacle of the list.
But taking the reins of arguably the weakest list going around, featuring very few players in their prime, several young hopefuls and a bunch of ageing workhorses, one thing’s for sure: getting this train back on track is going to take a hell of a lot of work.
Clarkson’s first, and biggest task, will be patching up the Kangaroos’ defence. In a low-scoring season, the Roos conceded nearly 109 points per game, worse even than the equally dismal West Coast.
Not all of it was the defenders’ fault: the Roos gave up more than 62 inside 50s per game, far and away the worst in the league, leaving their backs under siege in virtually every game.
Clarkson does have one star to work with, though: Ben McKay was a titan throughout 2022, finishing equal-seventh in the competition for intercept marks and the only player to average more than four of them per game. Given he also had to stand the opposition’s best key forward at virtually every turn, that’s an almost staggering body of work.
The problem was McKay had absolutely no help: the Roos averaged the fewest intercept possessions per game of any team, and when he missed a match or got injured partway through, as he did in crushing losses to Brisbane and Fremantle, things got very ugly very fast.
That’s where Griffin Logue comes in. The Roos didn’t offer the former Docker a five-year contract to provide the same decoy key forward role he was forced into in his last days at Freo. He’ll be straight into the backline, ideally as a number one key defender to allow McKay to perform a Steven May-esque intercepting role behind the ball.
Not as big or powerful as McKay, Logue will need plenty of pressure on the ball-carrier further afield to have hope of matching the likes of Tom Hawkins, Tom Lynch or Harry McKay (insert ‘there’s only one McKay’ joke here), but there’s no denying his recruitment does give North a badly needed size boost down back.
Clarkson’s Hawks didn’t truly go from good to great until the bigger, stronger and better Brian Lake replaced Ryan Schoenmakers as their chief key back in 2013; Logue’s recruitment has Clarko’s fingers all over it to fill a similar void at North. Whether McKay becomes a more powerful version of Josh Gibson or Lake himself remains to be seen.
Reports are that the most enigmatic Roo on the list, Tarryn Thomas, has spent much of the pre-season growing accustomed to a new role across half-back.
One of Clarkson’s key characteristics at Hawthorn was a backline filled with experienced marshals, from Luke Hodge to Gibson to Lake to Grant Birchall, and even briefly Sam Mitchell for a half of 2014. It’s interesting, then, that Thomas, who showed such promise as an inside-outside midfielder in 2021 before regressing badly last year, has been earmarked for what one presumes will be a rebounding distributor role.
I’ve long felt Aaron Hall, despite racking up monstrous numbers, was only good as a Band-aid to prevent the Roos leaking goals by the bucketful under David Noble: time after time he’d be given the ball for an uncontested mark in an unthreatening position in the back pocket, chip sideways across goal, get it back again, and effectively kill time until a gap opened up further afield or he turned the ball over.
Jack Ziebell performed the same negative, high-possession role early in 2021, and while it slowly faded away as the season wore on, the problems of the tactics were laid bare in 2022 as the Roos, encouraged to try and attack more but shorn of Hall’s usually safe ball use through injury, turned it over with horrifying regularity in the early part of that season.
It’s hard to see Hall fitting in the same backline as Thomas if Thomas is indeed tasked with a primarily offensive role, and while his stats indicate it might be harsh, the Roos won’t get anywhere if a 32-year old half-back is allowed to pad his stats like Hall has these past two years.
Equally, if it comes to it, surely Clarkson would prefer to invest further in the emerging Bailey Scott in defence, who mightn’t be as pacy as Hall but is taller, more athletic, a more capable stopper and less likely to disastrously turn the ball over coming out of efence.
Luke McDonald was one of the few Roos to enhance his reputation under Noble, and if Clarkson wants a Hodge type capable of leading through courage, it’s probably him. He’d be unlikely to read the play and be capable of marshalling the troops to the same brilliant extent that Luke Hodge was, but he’s seen enough of the ball coming towards him in the last four or five years that he could definitely have a reasonable stab at it.
The question, then, is whether Ziebell returns to defence, or continues in the forward role he was suddenly and with only occasional success shifted into last year. The extra experience down back would surely appeal to Clarko, especially until Logue becomes acclimatised to a new defensive system, and his presence there at North Melbourne training is all the evidence I need to pencil him in there.
If he can remain injury-free, Aidan Corr‘s height and athleticism make him an ideal mid-sized defender with the capacity to play tall when required – he’s a very poor man’s Ben Stratton, but even Clarkson’s Hawks dynasty still had role-players become club legends and crucial cogs. He has already had a calf strain to interrupt his pre-season, though, so will need to be managed carefully.
Ben McKay of the Kangaroos celebrates a goal. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
One of the few areas the Roos made substantial improvement last year was in the midfield. They rose from third-last for clearances in 2021, averaging 33 per game, up to 36 and a rank of 11th in 2022.
It didn’t result in more ball for their forward, or less for their defenders to cope with; but hey, baby steps.
A big part of that upsurge was the breakout of Luke Davies-Uniacke as a legitimate star of the game. After the mid-season bye, there were few better midfielders going around, with LDU averaging more than seven clearances a game, including a ridiculous 12 in a narrow loss to Collingwood (as well as 14 inside 50s), and 11 against Adelaide. Those are Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca combined sort of areas.
There’s a lot about Davies-Uniacke that reminds me of a 2012-era Patrick Dangerfield, but a smidgeon slower and a fraction more powerful. He’s the prototype of the big-bodied midfielder who gets his own ball, explodes from congestion and drives the ball forward.
He’s not always neat by foot – but few players that play his way have particularly high kicking efficiencies given the degree of difficulty. Just look at Dangerfield, Dustin Martin and Christian Petracca’s turnover numbers. But the risk-reward is so favourable with Davies-Uniacke, and given his coach was at the helm of the best kicking side the game has seen, he’s in no better hands to become a tidier ball-user. If that happens, there’s a Brownlow for the taking.
The yin to Davies-Uniacke’s yang is Jy Simpkin: a smaller, less damaging but more high-possession counterpart. Simpkin is a genuine ball magnet in a way that hasn’t been the Roos’ style in years gone by: they’ve more favoured bash-and-crash hard nuts like Ziebell and Ben Cunnington who don’t know the meaning of a loose ball get.
Simpkin isn’t like that, but he’s no stranger to winning his own ball, either. With Cunnington likely to be present for much of the season and back to the bottom of the packs, there’s an opportunity for Simpkin to become the next link in the chain, funnelling the ball out to Davies-Uniacke and co. all the while providing pressure when the first possession is lost. Then, in transition play, he can lead out into open space and control the tempo while his more dangerous teammates get into position.
It’s not an easy role, and much of the work is thankless; but Jordan Lewis was a master of it at the Hawks, especially in hs career-best 2015 season. Simpkin’s talents are such that he can be used in a variety of different ways as a midfielder; finding out just what Clarkson considers his most useful role is going to be fascinating.
Youngsters Tom Powell and Will Phillips have struggled for centre bounce opportunities to start their AFL careers: Phillips through illness, Powell through seemingly not being rated all that much by Noble.
Powell in particular was an utter ball magnet as a junior, and with Jed Anderson now departed there’s a defensive midfielder role Clarkson can put him into to get him around the ball and force him to focus on minding an opponent as much as going kick-chasing. Premiership Hawk Liam Shiels is another one who could fill that role (and he hasn’t been plucked out of retirement for no reason), but a mentoring role to the still developing Powell could be more beneficial for the club in the long run, and allow Shiels to transition into the coaching ranks while still playing.
Clarkson never had much time for taggers when the Hawks were at their peak, but in later years had Daniel Howe in a number of run-with roles.
Now a Kangaroo as a delisted free agent (Sam Mitchell couldn’t have discarded him more quickly), Howe is another option to add a defensive side to the Roos’ midfield, and stop them conceding as many inside 50s directly from clearances… but Clarkson will also have to consider that devoted but limited role-players like Howe may stymy the development of the generation that the Roos have invested their hopes into.
The wing role is interesting: it’s one Jaidyn Stephenson spent some time in, especially in early 2021, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Clarkson was keen to make him earn his spot through the VFL first. In the meantime, the promising Curtis Taylor is a definite option: his trials there during 2022 weren’t off the charts, but he run hard, marks well overhead and looks ideal for an outside role, perhaps roaming from half-forward further up the ground as a lead-up target.
Darcy Tucker‘s ankle injury may delay his start to 2023, but when fit it’s hard to see him not getting the first opportunity to make the other wing spot his own. Injury in 2022 saw Blake Acres usurp him on the wing at Freo, but he faces no such obstacles out of the gate at Arden Street, and with both speed and endurance – though he’ll need to fix up his kicking – he has all the credentials to make a fine outside runner, an area the Roos lack options in.
The ruck is also interesting: Noble clearly spent much of the early part of the year grooming Tristan Xerri to take charge, to the great detriment of veteran Todd Goldstein, who spent that time as a woefully ill-equipped makeshift key forward.
The balance changed once Xerri got injured, with Goldstein the new number one man and Callum Coleman-Jones playing second fiddle. Charlie Comben, too, got a look in, though he’s far more of a forward-ruck than the ruck-forward that seems to fit Coleman-Jones. Mid-season pick Jacob Edwards is another, more untested option.
Clarkson has always been inclined to play two ruckmen, even during the years where a substitute limited the interchange bench. David Hale was his backup option, who could also double as a handy forward, for much of that time, but more recently Jonathan Ceglar and Ben McEvoy were regularly used in tandem when Hale retired.
Clarkson values experience and showed a great respect for Hawks veterans throughout his time there, so it’s surely likely Goldstein would have moved on to another club had he not felt a role was there for him at AFL level. He’s still the best pure ruckman on the list, but his struggles as a forward last year makes it hard to fit another ruck in, and Xerri definitely looked up to AFL level last year.
The new substitute rule, though, might be his salvation. Here’s how it could work: Goldstein spends a half as the primary ruck, with Xerri forward alongside the emerging Comben as key pillars to take some heat off Larkey, with the task of bringing the ball to ground at all times.
Then at half time, Goldstein is subbed off for a smaller, quicker player, similar to how Max Bailey was subbed off frequently in the third quarter at the Hawks in 2013 to allow Hale to ruck the rest of the game. Xerri takes over, Comben provides the occasional chop out.
Too complicated?
Clayton Oliver of the Demons and Jy Simpkin of the Kangaroos look on. (Photo by Graham Denholm/Getty Images)
It’s not quite Franklin-Roughead-Gunston-Breust, but the Roos do have more options in attack than a side which mustered just a tick over 60 points per game last year.
A lot of their scoring issues, though, revolved around the gameplan. Noble had them in such a defensive, negative mindset throughout his tenure that the task was all but impossible for a developing key tall like Nick Larkey, and him managing 38 goals for the year despite snail-like ball movement towards him and a near-permanent congested forward line to work in was a miracle in and of itself.
You can bet your bottom dollar Clarkson will be out to make the Roos’ ball movement sharper, more precise, and infinitely quicker than Noble, which should be music to Larkey’s ears. A deadly shot for goal, excellent overhead and quick off the mark when leading, he could be very dangerous indeed if the Roos make it easier for him to excel.
In Cameron Zurhaar, the Roos also have a powerhouse who also happens to be pretty much the ideal mid-sized forward. Zurhaar is a noted goalkicker – he bagged 34 of them last year, with a stack of misses too – while also being strong one-on-one, quick when the ball hits the deck, and the most ferocious tackler North have at their disposal.
Zurhaar’s pressure is perhaps overrated – he only laid 10 tackles inside 50 last year – but when he hits you, you stay hit. The Hawks had a number of fanatical small forward tacklers during their golden run, Paul Puopolo chief among them: if that becomes a focus, giving Zurhaar a chance to bury opponents would be like a red rag to a bull.
Expect to see the Roos’ two latest high draft picks spend most of their time in attack in their debut year. George Wardlaw was a contested powerhouse throughout his junior career, and is exactly the type of player you regularly see make an instant impact at the highest level. Can he be what Jason Horne-Francis couldn’t?
Starting him as a pressure forward would give him a first-up challenge of getting his defensive workrate up to AFL level without expecting too much of him with ball in hand just yet. Meanwhile, Harry Sheezel is there as the Roos’ most exciting small forward since Lindsay Thomas left: with X-factor to spare and a nose for goals, his confidence and swagger will be a great addition to a forward line that often looked collectively down in the dumps during a difficult 2022.
The wildcard in attack is Paul Curtis, who showed great promise as a small forward last season and has already been trialled in stints on the ball. A pocket rocket who’s exceptional overhead for his size, you can expect both him and Zurhaar to feature regularly in the midfield rotation, but their primary roles will likely be to provide yet more crumbing options at ground level in attack once the ball hits the ground, an area the Roos have struggled mightily in for many seasons now.
As I mentioned before, Comben seems a likelier tall target at this stage than Coleman-Jones or the untried Edwards, with his size and marking power making him a handy foil for Larkey, which he badly needs. But the Roos gave up plenty to secure Coleman-Jones’ signature at the end of 2021, while Edwards showed significant upside before being signed as a rookie in mid-2022.
One, or both, could and likely will get their chance – but Clarkson will be wary of a forward line that’s too top-heavy, especially with a number of the smaller options capable of playing tall as well.
Alastair Clarkson. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)
Backs: Luke McDonald, Ben McKay, Aidan Corr
Half-backs: Tarryn Thomas, Griffin Logue, Bailey Scott
Centres: Curtis Taylor, Luke Davies-Uniacke, Darcy Tucker*
Followers: Tristan Xerri, Jy Simpkin, Ben Cunnington
Half-forwards: George Wardlaw, Charlie Comben, Paul Curtis
Forwards: Harry Sheezel, Nick Larkey, Cameron Zurhaar
Interchange: Todd Goldstein, Will Phillips, Tom Powell, Jack Ziebell (c)
Substitute: Daniel Howe
Emergencies: Callum Coleman-Jones, Liam Shiels, Jaidyn Stephenson
* in doubt for Round 1 with knee injury
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