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Opinion
The countdown to Round 1, 2023 has officially begun – so throughout January, I’ll be looking at all 18 AFL clubs and doing my best to put together an optimum team for the new year.
I’ll take injuries and suspensions into account, but this won’t be a predicted team for Round 1 – think of it more as a guide to what your team’s best 23 (the 22 starting players plus the new unrestricted substitute) could look like as the year unfolds.
Today, it’s time to take a look at last year’s runner-up, Sydney. Check out the links below if your team has already been done.
Adelaide | Brisbane | Carlton | Collingwood | Essendon
Fremantle | Geelong | Gold Coast | GWS | Hawthorn
Melbourne | North Melbourne | Port Adelaide | Richmond
In recent times, getting demolished in a grand final has basically become a death sentence for the next year.
Port Adelaide spun into crisis after being steamrolled by Geelong to the tune of 119 points in the 2007 big dance; Adelaide are still yet to recover from the disaster that was their 2017 defeat to Richmond; GWS crashed out of the finals after getting walloped in 2019 by the Tigers again.
On paper, that same fate looks unlikely to befall the Swans – they have an excellent mix of talented youth and battle-hardened experience, have star power and plentiful depth across the ground, and are expertly marshalled by John Longmire. But then again, neither the Crows nor the Giants were expected to slump as they did either.
An 81-point grand final loss to Geelong was a hideous way to end their season, but the truth was the Swans were excellent in 2022. They won not one but two finals with a list that still looks like it has plenty of improvement left in it, and a premiership would probably have arrived ahead of schedule had they not capitulated on the MCG.
The trick will be for the Swans to make the minor tweaks needed to their gameplan and playing group to clear that final frontier, without throwing the baby out with the bathwater and abandoning ideas that worked so brilliantly for 24 games last year.
Simple, right?
The Swans took the AFL by storm in their return to finals in 2021 with fast-paced, electrifying ball movement on the back of a core crop of young guns. But it has consistently been allayed with a defensive solidity that has prevented them being punished going the other way.
Sydney ranked sixth for points conceded in the 2021 home-and-away season, before upping that to fourth last year. They only gave up 100 points four times, three of them coming in a below-par five-week stretch before their mid-season bye. They have an ideal mix of talls and smalls, cool ball-users and dashing rebounders; and best of all, it’s an extremely youthful group.
Only Dane Rampe among the Swans’ first-choice backs is on the wrong side of 30. He showed his age at times with the odd poor match and defensive lapse, but he’s still solid as a rock and provides the unit with an experienced marshal to ensure their structure behind the ball remains as designed.
He’s also more than capable of playing as a third or even second tall defender, which he did a number of times last year in order to free up Paddy McCartin.
The former number one draft pick’s resurgence at the Swans last year was one of the stories of the season; missing just one game, he was exceptional one-on-one, losing just 12 of his 56 contests inside defensive 50 in 2022, and even better as an intercept marker. He clunked 71 of them last year – behind only Darcy Moore and Tom Barrass in the competition. Friendly reminder it was his first full season as a backman at AFL level.
Equally good is Tom McCartin, who is asked to do plenty as the Swans’ number one key defender but somehow manages to remain an offensive threat as well. He, like his brother, is an exceptional interceptor, but his 200 spoils for the season – second in the AFL behind Harris Andrews – shows what his primary role is.
McCartin weighs in at 89 kilograms according to the Swans’ publically released information – little wonder, then, that he can be monstered at times when isolated against opposition forwards, like Max Gawn did to him against Melbourne in Round 12. But the beauty of the Swans is there is always someone – sometimes his brother, sometimes Rampe, on occasion Nick Blakey – on hand to provide a timely spoil or give a chop out when required.
It will be interesting to see whether new recruit Aaron Francis slots in right away or is made to bide his time for senior opportunities. Francis, at his best, has the potential to be another elite interceptor like the McCartin brothers, and one suspects he will enjoy being a member of Sydney’s backline more than at a perpetually under siege Essendon.
Him playing tall would free Rampe up to play on smaller options, should he still possess the necessary leg speed to tackle the Charlie Camerons of the world; but would it risk jeopardising a major strength of the Swans’, their run and gun from defence on the counterattack?
Fail to mark the ball inside 50 against the Swans at your peril – with ball in hand, they remain a fearsome proposition as they speed up the middle.
Blakey is the key here: his physical attributes make him an incredible package. He’s tall enough to provide excellent defensive cover should he be needed to support one of the McCartins, but also probably the quickest Swan on the list.
His dash and dare pairs nicely with the more circumspect Jake Lloyd; they wax and wane possessions depending on whether a slow play or lightning rebound are required. It’s worth noting that Lloyd’s stats have been slowly on the decline as the Swans have upped their attacking play – he averaged nearly 31 disposals a game, many of them sideways chips, during 2019, but down under 24 last year.
The Swans still love the ball in his hands – but with Blakey and Oli Florent now on hand to provide far greater drive, Lloyd isn’t their only avenue out of defence anymore, which he has been at times in the past. Braeden Campbell will, in time, be another option, and could easily be regarded as the game’s best kick in 12 months’ time.
One thing the Swans lack is a genuine small defender, something the Cats took full advantage of in the grand final as Tyson Stengle (four goals) and Brad Close (two) snuck through gaps in the defensive system with ease.
Close checking isn’t something the Swans do – they prefer to encourage their backs to be proactive and intercept the ball rather than play back shoulder and try to neutralise contests. But given how ruthlessly it was exploited in the grand final, I wonder whether Robbie Fox will have more specific jobs moving forward.
With 26 disposals, Fox was one of the few Swans who could leave the MCG on grand final day with head held high, and proved at the least that he is now a vital part of an excellent team. But with Blakey, Lloyd and Florent – all superior ball-users – likely to remain in defence for the foreseeable future, Fox getting that much ball isn’t really necessary for them. If he can make himself into a bona fide lockdown back, he’ll be far more indispensable than he has been throughout his six-year career to date.
Paddy McCartin. (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
Since the great Josh Kennedy began being shifted out of the on-ball rotation at the end of 2020, winning the hard ball hasn’t been a strength of the Swans’.
They have finished seventh in each of the last two seasons for contested possessions, and eighth and tenth respectively for total clearances. It’s not exactly the blueprint of a premiership side, where a strong engine room was a crucial element to success.
The Swans are an embodiment of the new face of footy – it doesn’t matter so much who wins the ball on the inside, it’s what you do on the outside that counts. Take Chad Warner – 40th in the AFL for total clearances, 27th for contested possessions, 38th for disposals, and yet third for inside 50s and sixth for score involvements.
Every time Warner touches the ball, something exciting happens – his disposals are worth their weight in gold.
Warner became a staple at centre bounces for the Swans last year, where one assumes he’ll remain for the next decade. He’s explosive, electrifying, and exceptional – and around him, Sydney have enough tougher nuts to ensure he has the ball in his hands enough to make a serious impact.
Like every year in recent times, there’s a watch on Luke Parker to see just how much control of the coalface he cedes to the next generation. Notably, Longmire was keen to give fresher faces on-ball opportunities in the home-and-away season, but in the cut and thrust of finals went to Parker time and again.
The co-captain attended 72 per cent of Swans’ centre bounces throughout the year, but that lifted to nearly 90 per cent across their three finals. When the going gets tough, Parker is still the man the Swans want in the guts – and for good reason. Ranking seventh in the league for clearances and contested possessions last year, he is the hard-ball beast the Swans need to spark their outside game.
At some point James Rowbottom will take over as that in-and-under general, but at 22 years old he’ll probably need another year or two to be ready to fully replace Parker. There’s no rush, though: the Swans bat very deep in midfield, and averaging nearly seven tackles per game, Rowbottom is at his best as the defensive-side mid at centre bounces to mop up if the aggression of Warner doesn’t pay off.
Callum Mills is also a fascinating prospect: it’s no secret now that he’s the Swans’ premier midfield, but he’s so useful in so many roles that Longmire seems reluctant to make him a full time, ball-winning on-baller.
He was frequently pushed into defence if the Swans were getting too leaky, as he did to memorable effect in a comeback win over Richmond in Round 11. (He played a similar role, to far less effect, in the grand final). He’s also their go-too tagger if an opposition midfielder is running hot, curbing their influence repeatedly without impacting his high disposal numbers.
Mills is the Swans’ Mr Fix-it, but at some point Longmire will have to consider whether switching his superstar all around the ground wherever the team needs him most is the best use of a player who could very easily win a Brownlow with a full season on the ball.
Between them, Mills, Rowbottom, Parker and Warner entered the vast majority of centre bounces; with Tom Hickey one of the game’s most underrated ruckmen when he’s not getting embarrassed by Tom Hawkins, that’s an excellent combination.
Throw in Tom Papley or Isaac Heeney for occasional bursts to bring flair, pace and class – Papley in particular was a real game-changer in the second half of the year as a genuine half-mid-half-forward – and the group really lacks for nothing. And what it isn’t great at is more than compensated by what it is.
Like Warner, Errol Gulden is a lock on the Swans’ wing for the next decade. Another attack-first young gun, Gulden had a great balance with the likes of Justin McInerney playing as a defensive winger on the other side of the ground, and now looks set to share the role with another emerging star in Dylan Stephens, who has undertaken a monstrous pre-season to try and shore up his spot in the team for the future.
Gulden hasn’t quite got Warner’s consistency yet, but he plays a difficult, often thankless role with so much class and intelligence. He plays very wide, like a true winger, holding his space as an outlet option for both defensive rebounds and stoppages, and his ball use is rarely short of immaculate.
As long as the Swans are competitive at the coalface, he’ll have a long and successful career; but with just 14 possessions in the grand final, if they’re getting thrashed he’ll need to add extra elements to his game to ensure he can still have an impact when the chips don’t fall his way.
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
The Swans’ forwards have received praise aplenty, both individually and as a collective, in recent seasons: but one thing that has slipped under the radar is how incredibly efficient they are.
The Swans ranked eighth for average inside 50s in 2022 – three and a half fewer per game than AFL leaders Geelong, and ahead of only Collingwood and Fremantle among finalists, neither of whom scored anywhere near as regularly as Sydney.
Their rank of fourth for total home-and-away points last year is slightly down from 2021, when they were third; but considering they were fourth for average inside 50s in 2021, to only marginally fall back despite getting comfortably fewer opportunities was an exceptional effort.
Of course, the whole region still revolves around Lance Franklin. He’s not the player he was, but he’s also nearly 36 years old and still good for 50 goals a season, and commands the best defender every single week.
Will this be his last season? Probably, but as it stands, he’s still got so much to give as a footballer – and one final box to tick off, a premiership with the side he famously departed Hawthorn for nine years ago.
Franklin’s presence takes such heat off fellow talls Sam Reid and Logan McDonald, both of whom found it far easier to get off the leash and impact the scoreboard with so many opposition defences still so Buddy-conscious.
McDonald has all the issues 20-year old tall forwards have: he has precious little consistency, is frequently outbodied by the bigger key defenders, and doesn’t quite have the footy nous yet to lead where the ball is coming on a regular basis.
But while he mustered only 14 goals from 17 games last year, bags of three against Carlton and, more impressively, Melbourne in a Franklin-less team, show just how bright his future is. I imagine the Swans will learn their lesson from dropping him for the grand final.
Reid, when injured, has always been a Longmire regular; but facing a need to add more strings to his bow with the arrival of McDonald and the presence of Joel Amartey, Peter Ladhams and Hayden McLean, he defied his body to become an exceedingly capable second ruckman.
The Swans panicked over Reid’s preliminary final adductor injury, and while he was picked for the grand final, it was telling that they were concerned enough over his capability to ruck that they brought in McLean for McDonald to provide that role in his stead.
A more dangerous forward threat, and more mobile, than genuine ruck-forwards Ladhams, McLean or Amartey, Reid’s slashing end to last year makes him an obvious choice as the second tall provided he overcomes that prelim injury he’s still yet to fully shake.
With so many tall options in attack, little wonder so many teams struggled to contain Isaac Heeney. He faces a similar problem to Mills – no doubt he would be exceptional as a full-time midfielder, but he’s so incredibly gifted in attack that Longmire has never had reason nor inclination to play him as anything other than a mid-sized forward with occasional stints on the ball.
Heeney bagged 49 goals last year, second at the Swans behind Franklin, all the while ranking eighth for total score involvements. None of the Swans’ many, many other midfield options would come close to that kind of scoreboard impact.
Papley spent time in the midfield, but was still predominantly a forward in 2022, where his goal nous and pressure have made him one of the best goalsneaks in the business.
No doubt he’ll have stints on the ball in 2023, but like Heeney, his value is so spectacular inside attacking 50 that it would most likely hurt the team to turn him into a full-time on-baller.
Heeney is one of two mid-sizers the Swans have at their disposal in attack, with Will Hayward also causing problems for defences due to his elite athleticism and ability to play taller than his height. With 34 goals last year and after playing every game, he’s another Swan whose every disposal is worth its weight in gold.
It’s an interesting contradiction that a side as offensively minded as Sydney were the ones to reincarnate the running defender tagger as well. After restricting St Kilda’s Jack Sinclair to less than no impact, Ryan Clarke became an indispensable part of the Sydney machine.
Clarke managed just 27 games in his first three seasons at Sydney, mostly because Longmire had no space in his midfield for the tagger that he was when he left North Melbourne. But the task of stopping the opposition’s most dangerous rebounding defender has rejuvenated his career, and he remains a key weapon for the Swans to wield.
Tom Papley of the Swans celebrates a goal. (Photo by Matt King/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)
Backs: Dane Rampe (c), Tom McCartin, Jake Lloyd
Half-backs: Oliver Florent, Paddy McCartin, Nick Blakey
Centres: Dylan Stephens, Callum Mills (c), Errol Gulden
Followers: Tom Hickey, James Rowbottom, Chad Warner
Half-forwards: Luke Parker (c), Lance Franklin, Will Hayward
Forwards: Tom Papley, Logan McDonald, Isaac Heeney
Interchange: Ryan Clarke, Robbie Fox, Justin McInerney, Sam Reid
Substitute: Braeden Campbell
Emergencies: Aaron Francis, Will Gould, Peter Ladhams
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