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Opinion
After a good little profit last week, it’s back to Randwick for a middling pre-Christmas meeting.
There’s money to be made backing horses returning to a favoured dry surface who will be around the speed.
No bet in Race 1 for the two-year-olds.
Race 2 – 5 Starman (one unit)
Current price: $3
Starman was impressive first-up and looks to have come back a better horse as a gelding. James McDonald sticks, if he holds his form he’s in the finish. Chris Waller has five of the nine runners. 8. Sacrimony looks to be on the way up and is the main danger.
Race 3 – 12 Accrue (one unit)
Current price: $8
Queanbeyan-trained 12. Accrue can measure up in town after running no worse than third at six runs at his home track this time in. He’s been short in the market at each run and the form can translate.
Race 4 – 11 Hollywood Gossip (one unit)
Current price: $4.40
On-pacer 11. Hollywood Gossip has been rising through the grades nicely, McDonald seems a big appointment again. Budhwar running on Friday should lessen the pressure up front.
Race 5 – 7 Welsh Legend (one unit)
Current price: $5
While 3. Huetor has been super impressive with two wins since landing in Oz, 7. Welsh Legend almost got him last time and meets him two kilos better for it. 4. Lord Ardmore, who has built a good record, is another worth watching.
Race 6 – 3 Saigon (one unit)
Current odds: $5
This is a tricky little race for the ladies. 3. Saigon rates on top, McDonald/Waller (again), she was great fresh despite jumping slowly and will be fitter for that. Outside her, 2. Exotic Ruby is getting to backable odds after running well last week.
Race 7 – 4 Above and Beyond (one unit)
Current price: $15
The dry track is key for 4. Above and Beyond. Five of his seven wins have come on good surfaces, including his most recent win in October. 8. Francesco Guardi is the big risk, he’s too short at $2 but is running well, but needs to get a W.
Race 8 – 8 Oscar Zulu (one unit)
Current price: $15
8. Oscar Zulu can run well fresh. Two of his five wins have come first-up, 1400 metres is the right journey and Kerrin McEvoy will be positive. 9. Bigboyroy can get the staggers but is right there ratings wise and I could dabble at the right price. 5. Bottega is the next best.
Race 9 – 13 Liberty Sun (one unit)
Current price: $15
13. Liberty Sun gets to 1200 metres for this one and while the Mr Mosaic form is iffy, the weight turnaround, apprenctice claim and dry track are all ticks. 6. Much Much Better could go close if left alone. 8. Tycoonist will be around it again.
Race 10 – 10 De Grawin
Current odds: $10
My old fave 10. De Grawin is back. There’s a heap of speed here. I’m well in front backing her in and she can show something at 1000 metres. 12. Leo is a gun horse at this sort of trip. 6. Remlaps Gem is always the watch.
The tally (from August 1)
Outlay: 244 units
Return: 187.70 units
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes.
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