Opinion
What a great race the Newmarket Handicap is.
Everyone knows about the Melbourne Cup of course, and many people have heard about the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate, Golden Slipper and latterly The Everest. But the Newmarket is one of those races that truly excites genuine fans of the sport.
The Flemington straight is unique in this country, where horses can race up to 1200m in a straight line rather than around a bend, in a field of up to 24. And being a handicap, every horse is weighted to give them a chance, which makes this the sprinting equivalent of the Melbourne Cup.
Befitting a race of that status, this year we have a mix of horses from Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, the country and even New Zealand. We have older horses, younger horses, a mixture of big stables and those with barely a handful in work. It’s a true reflection of Australian racing.
The Lightning Stakes, won by Coolangatta three weeks ago, is always a key pointer to the Newmarket. Run over 1000m under weight-for-age conditions, many horses use that race as a tune-up before the big one.
Flemington Racecourse. (Reg Ryan/Racing Photos)
I Wish I Win was second behind Coolangatta in the Lightning, and rarely do we see a flashing light like the talented Peter Moody gelding produced there. His ability is unquestioned, his booming finish is becoming a signature, and after three wins last campaign including the Golden Eagle, it was fantastic to see him return with that sort of performance at a trip most would agree is short of his best.
I Wish I Win drops 2kg’s from that eye-catching second, but also takes on four other rivals from that race, which finished third, fourth, fifth and seventh behind him. It tells us are in form, and with the winner Coolangatta not taking her place, they all get their chance for a win.
Bella Nipotina finished just behind I Wish I Win in the Lightning, and also drops 2kg’s into this race, even though he did sail by her on the line. She’s become an excellent sprinter in her own right, but the question is just whether she is a length better around a turn and with some give in the track, neither of which she will see here.
September Run, another mare, is a Flemington specialist, and was right in the finish with I Wish I Win and Bella Nipotina. She actually meets them half a kilo better for that run, is already a Group 1 winner at this track and distance, and finished third in this last year.
Youngster Buenos Noches was regarded as a winning chance in the Lightning, due to his spring form around star three-year-old’s like Giga Kick and In Secret. He ran very well in his first try at open age, and drops a whopping 5kg’s into this race. He must be a chance.
Baller is the final runner from the Lightning, a hardy Queenslander that is proving himself to have a liking for the Flemington straight, always at double figure odds. He does drop a nice 3.5kg’s into this, but doesn’t appear to be particularly well weighted compared to other key rivals.
Who doesn’t love the Newmarket? (Photo by Alan Crowhurst/Getty Images)
The Oakleigh Plate is almost as time-honoured as the Newmarket, and is the other vital lead-up race that must be assessed.
Lofty Strike is starting to look every bit the Group 1 horse, finishing second in the Oakleigh Plate after beating a similar field of quality older horses in the Rubiton Stakes the start before. This is a very smart youngster, but does have his share of weight in this strength of field.
Lofty Strike meets a few rivals from the Oakleigh Plate here, and frankly gave them all windburn at Sandown. Can any turn the tables?
Chain of Lightning might need to be ridden more quietly at Group 1 level at the pure sprint trips, given she didn’t have the finish when ridden warmly on a hot pace last start. Star Patrol had good support, but never looked entirely comfortable in the run. He is all heart though, and kept plugging away gamely.
The Astrologist and Roch ‘N’ Horse were never fancied in the Oakleigh Plate, and never really in the race. They are both renowned as Flemington specialists, and you could do worse than have a nibble on either.
We also have a few horses attacking this race first-up.
Anyone that saw Private Eye bolt away with the Gilgai Stakes at this track and trip in October, dominating the likes of Roch ‘N’ Horse and Baller among others, will agree that this is a horse that could win anything on his day. He very nearly won an Everest at his next start, and took out the Winners Stakes after that.
Private Eye carries top weight in this affair, and barrier two could be tricky, but it’s a brave person that is going to rule him out from being able to beat them all.
Mazu got beaten a length by Private Eye at his last two starts in the spring, but meets him a kilo better for those defeats here. Is it enough to turn the tables? He probably needs a wet track to win this.
Front Page is a beauty. His only two starts in the spring were a win in the Kosciuszko, and being beaten 1.5 lengths in the VRC Classic at WFA. He meets the winner of that race, Roch ‘N’ Horse, 5kg’s better for that performance, and there are several others he’s better off than too. He must be considered a chance.
(Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images for the VRC)
And that leaves us with the equal favourite In Secret, the third three-year-old (but only filly) in the race. The lightly raced star of the Godolphin stable has won five of her eight starts, and been beaten a combined length and a half in her three defeats.
In Secret is proven down the straight, thanks to her brilliant win in the Coolmore on Derby Day, and even though this is her first start against older horses, her credentials against open company can be lined up through Jacquinot, who pipped her in the Golden Rose, and Lofty Strike, who was well beaten by her in the Coolmore. Those two have stood up multiple times against the best.
The question for In Secret is whether she is going quite as well as she was when making such a big impression during the spring.
Unusually for a Group 1 sprint with a large field, there are only two natural leaders – Snapper and Front Page. And there aren’t a great many who like to push forward hard either, so if you like something that will settle in the first half dozen, they should get their chance.
Selections: 1.Front Page 2.Lofty Strike 3.I Wish I Win 4.Private Eye
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