Every year, Melbourne Cup week is too slow to arrive and too quick to pass. The same could be said for the spring carnival as a whole, whether you’re from Victoria or New South Wales.
What a joy to watch the best horses from around the country come together the way they do.
Emirates Stakes day is the final Group 1 meeting in the eastern states for the year, and the feature race is the toughest Group 1 mile handicap to find a winner in all year.
Let’s look at each runner to see if we can eke out the first one home.
1. Solzhenitsyn
Arguably the most consistent handicapper in the country over seven or eight furlongs, this Queenslander put in an uncharacteristically poor performance in the Mackinnon due to choking down last week, and is sure to bounce back with a significant gear change.
The compressed weights these days make it easier for those at the top to salute, and he’s always carried it well.
2. Boban
The hottest form horse from either Melbourne or Sydney, unbeaten this campaign, and it seems every horse that runs behind him has either won before or after running into him.
He’s found himself up in the weights quickly after his Bill Ritchie and Epsom wins, and his Moonga Stakes win at Caulfield had to be seen to be believed.
He’s the favourite for a reason.
3. Sacred Falls
The Doncaster Handicap winner produced a huge run first-up in early September, but failed to produce his best in the rest of his Sydney runs.
His trackwork in Cox Plate week caught the eye and he followed it up with a huge third behind Toydini in the Crystal Mile. He should appreciate his first time at Flemington.
One of the very toughest to beat.
4. Toydini
Another form horse out of Sydney, he was the owner of an impressive Cameron Handicap win giving significant weight to all rivals, before an outstanding third in the Epsom. His first run in Melbourne resulted in a Crystal Mile win at Group 2 weight-for-age (WFA) against form horses, and he’s another who’ll love the long Flemington straight.
Few will be closing harder.
5. Linton
Linton is dropping back from two Group 1 handicaps, and drops weight from both after one excellent run, and one solid.
It’s easy to forget this horse has run second in an Australian Cup at this track, but barrier one won’t be his greatest asset.
Not in my selections, but one of many that won’t shock.
6. Mull of Killough
Was brave with 61.5kg’s on Cup day after a so-so Cox Plate run, he’ll be better for a run at the track and, having this third run in 15 days, will be rock-hard racing fit to go forward and defy the rest to get past him.
The form out of the Cox Plate has already been franked with two Group 1 wins, and two of the past three Emirates Stakes winners have come out of that race too.
7. Havana Gold
Scratched.
8. Nashville
The Kiwi raider has been running superbly in his home country, arriving in Australia off the back of two Group 1 WFA placings.
He is a winner at the highest level over a mile, defeating Veyron, who we saw win the Warwick Stakes earlier this spring.
He has failed in Australia before though, but I wouldn’t talk you out of an each-way ticket at massive odds.
9. Speediness
Speediness has grown another leg this year and this campaign to be one of the best sprinter-milers in the state, if not the country.
He ties in the key Melbourne and Sydney handicap form by splitting Toydini and Sacred Falls at WFA last start, with only a hair between the three of them. He was the one that hit the front too early and gave Toydini a bunny to catch, and is well suited back to this handicap.
Over the odds for sure, his inside barrier might be a worry by the time the race is run.
10. Mouro
Wasn’t up to the class of a Toorak Handicap two starts back, but got all the favours in his Sale Cup win, and he will appreciate dropping 5kg’s from it.
Pushed Speediness in a photo finish back in May, and is better off at the weights here, but it’s hard to see him with the class to beat them all.
11. Stipulate
An import having his first start for the David Hayes stable, his European form suggests that he has trouble finishing in front of the likes of Mull of Killough, but we know how sometimes these horses can go up a level in the hands of our trainers.
The market might tell us if he can win, but it would be nice to go wide enough in the quaddie to include him.
12. Blackie
Has been in ripping form in most of the same races as Speediness, and actually meets that galloper better in the weights for finishing in front of him in the Toorak.
He also ran well in the Crystal Mile, drops a whopping 6.5kg’s from that event, and will meet Toydini 4.5kg’s better for the 2.5 length defeat.
A long way from the worst.
13. Smokin’ Joey
Put an exclamation mark on Derby day last week when he saluted in the last at $41, a race that has often provided the winner of the Emirates seven days later.
He’s run some decent races in good company in the past without coming off as a potential Group 1 winner, but it’s hard to knock winning a key-lead-up.
14. Spurtonic
Another subsequent winner out of the Epsom, he’ll meet all of his rivals from that race better at the weights.
He did get windburn from Toydini in the Cameron when in receipt of 4kg’s, but seems to have found another level or two since then.
Tough, fit and in-form, and in the care of a now Melbourne Cup-winning trainer.
15. Strike The Stars
A Group 1 place-getter at the track and distance (Australian Guineas), Strike The Stars is the latest Anthony Cummings runner to enter a Group 1 race at significant odds, and we know he can produce a winner under those circumstances.
This horse is the fresh one on the scene, not into a lengthy prep like many others, and has shown the turn of foot this campaign to suggest he can be a player with the right run.
16. Rhythm To Spare
The most inexperienced horse in the race, but also one with the most upside.
Being trained as a miler this prep after reaching a Derby distance over the Brisbane carnival, he’s been in good form in decent grade.
Kerrin McEvoy has been riding in great form for the Snowden stable, and can use his skills for Mike Moroney here.
In summary, the big question is, who will win in the battle between class, winning form and the will to find the post first, and the swing in weights from close defeats that we often see under handicap conditions?
Then we’ve got a few fresh horses on the scene, including internationals.
What a battle this race should be, you could take field in the quaddie and still miss the leg!
Selections: 1. Sacred Falls 2. Toydini 3. Strike The Stars 4. Speediness
The Emirates Stakes is the last Victorian Group 1 of the year, but the VRC Sprint is the second last, and a crack field of hardy veterans and classy up-and-comers has been assembled.
Lucky Nine is the favourite, and deservedly so as the clear highest rater in the race. He put the writing on the wall in the Manikato behind Buffering when apparently half-fit and catching traffic at just the wrong time.
He meets seven of his rivals from that race again tomorrow, and it will be a surprise to see any of them getter the better of him. Sessions is probably the best of those.
The biggest challenge, as ever in spring WFA events, might be from the three-year-olds.
Villa Verde came from last in the Coolmore to get within two and a half lengths of Zoustar, a superstar that would have started favourite in this if running.
This speedy filly should sit in the first couple, and it helps her that Buffering is drawn ten horses away. She’s the one I’ll be backing at an enormous $31, hopefully she scoots away before the rest know she’s gone.
Sidestep was also good in that Coolmore, and will be better with a bit of cover. Platelet is as honest as the day is long, and loves the straight.
Selections: 1. Lucky Nine 2. Villa Verde 3. Sessions 4. Platelet
Hopefully you’re ahead after three huge days at Flemington, and if not, take a deep breath before diving back in, emptying your pockets to cash in on a few winners on the last day.
Either way, enjoy another great day of racing at Flemington.
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