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The lead-up to the Melbourne Cup continues to pick up pace with the first ballot exemption race at Flemington as 12 horses battle it out for an all-but-guaranteed slot into the race that stops a nation. Join The Roar for live coverage of The Bart Cummings from 4:20pm (AEST).
None of the horses in the field are likely to get entry to the Melbourne Cup any other way, so a win today is crucial if they want a ticket to the biggest and richest race on the calendar.
This race produced a winner of the Melbourne Cup just two years ago when Almandin took victory, then went on to win the big one a month later.
Fittingly, the favourite this year is the James Cummings-trained Avilius. Since arriving from Great Britain for a tilt at the Spring Carnival, he has won three straight races in Sydney, putting together an excellent run during the last start at the Kingston Town Stakes.
Only one start in a race more than 2000 metres leaves questions though, as does the weight rising to 58.5kilograms.
Avilius is an incredibly short price at $2.25 though, with the Darren Weir-trained Yogi and Liam Howley’s Harrison and Our Venice Beach the other likely favourites ahead of this one.
Yogi had a reasonably poor outing in his last race at Morphettville but was better before that with a second-place at Moonee Valley.
Harrison is the horse who could cause the surprise here though, having finished in second place last week at Mornington across a distance of 2040 metres. That followed a three-week break and a fifth-place finish at Moonee Valley before that.
Our Venice Beach is always a determined stayer around this time of year though – but with only one decent result in recent times, coming in the form of a second-place at Mooney Valley, it will need a run well above expectations book a spot in the Cup.
Prediction
Avilius looks the goods to me. The short-priced favourite won’t be the one to back if you’re looking for some juicy odds, but it’s the safe bet. If he turns up with Sydney form, it’ll be the winner.
Avilius to beat Harrison and Our Venice Beach.
Be sure to join The Roar for live coverage of the Melbourne Cup ballot exemption race from 4:20pm (AEST) and don’t forget to add a comment in the section below.
Start time: 4:20pm (AEST)
Racecourse: Flemington
Distance: 2500 metres
TV: Live, Seven, Sky Racing
Full field
1. Avilius – Barrier 1
2. Our Venice Beach – Barrier 14
3. Vengeur Masque – Barrier 11
4. Zacada – Barrier 15
5. Megablast – Barrier 9
6. Rising Red – Scratched
7. Midterm – Scratched
8. Northwest Passage – Barrier 10
9. Jaameh – Barrier 7
10. Yogi – Barrier 6
11. Harrison – Barrier 13
12. Hush Writer – Barrier 4
13. Chequered Flag – Barrier 3
14. Mr Clarify – Barrier 12
15. Wheal Leisure – Barrier 2
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