Three strong meetings are set down to be run and won this weekend, starting off on Friday night at Moonee Valley with the Group l William Reid Stakes (1200m).
There’s then a couple of cracking programs on Saturday, with BMW Day at Rosehill, and Mornington Cup Day in a stand-alone program at Mornington.
BMW Day at Rosehill
The $1.5 Million Group l BMW (2400m) highlights the program at Rosehill, and in what looks to be a competitive edition of the race, I’m going with Hartnell.
Savaged the line at his Australian debut when second to Contributer in the Chipping Norton Stakes (1600m), and that form has clearly been franked. Hartnell then went to the Sky High Stakes (2000m) and absolutely toyed with them, winning easily.
Up to 2400m does appear as though it will suit, and being third-up now, he should be ready fitness wise.
The likelihood of a wet track will ensure that Lucia Valentina is a serious chance. Her first two runs this time in were OK without being great, but she bounced back to form last Saturday in the Ranvet Stakes (2000m) when third to Contributer. She was very unlucky in her last 2400m run, the Caulfield Cup, running third to Admire Rakti. Repeat that and she’ll go very close here.
Like Lucia Valentina, the wet track brings Opinion right into the mix. Really liked his Sky High runner up effort behind Hartnell given he was over an unsuitable distance and on a firm track. He will be better here with give in the ground, extra 400m and added fitness. He is a serious knockout chance.
Selections
Hartnell (8) on top, ahead of Lucia Valentina (10), Opinion (4) and Silent Achiever (9).
The $400,000 Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m) is generally won by the best filly in the race. That is clearly First Seal. But she had a torrid trip in the Coolmore Classic (1500m), so I’ll go with the filly who is proven at this distance range, and that is Set Square.
Her two runs this time in, both at Flemington, have been very good given they have each been over unsuitable distances. Third-up at 2000m is ideal, and she did win the Ethereal third-up during the Spring before winning the Oaks. I am confident the same result will happen.
As I said, First Seal is the clear class runner. She is the most brilliant filly in the race, and despite queries at the distance, that will always hold her in high regard as a winning chance. She really should have won the Coolmore had it not been for her sitting three and four wide no cover for the entire 1500m. She still looked home, but she was grabbed right on the peg. If you like her, you’d hope she has recovered from that. Nonetheless, hard to beat.
The one on the up is Winx. Her two runs from a break had been solid without being great, but when she stepped out for the Phar Lap Stakes (1500m), she just looked a different filly and looked far, far superior to her rivals. She ran up to those looks, recording a very arrogant win, sitting last and swooping down the outside.
Query on her running 2000m, but she has class and a touch of brilliance.
Selections
Clearly putting Set Square (2) on top, to beat home First Seal (1), Winx (4) and Adrift (8), who worked very well during the week.
The $175,000 Group 2 Tulloch Stakes (2000m) is used as the final lead up to the Derby next week, but it really hasn’t been a reliable Derby form reference in recent years, with the exception of Polish Knight in 2012.
I am going with the horse who has good, tough exposure at the distance, and that’s Ruling Dynasty for Team Cummings, who donkey licked an average bunch of older horses last time out at Kembla Grange. It’s always a handy trait for a three-year-old to beat older horses, and in particular the manner in which he did it. Prepared to take a gamble on him.
The sharp improver in this has to be a horse who is assured a start in the Derby next week, Diamond Valores. His opening two runs this Autumn were terrible, but he went to the Phar Lap Stakes (1500m) and ran a much improved race when third to Winx, hitting the front at the top of the straight and looking a touch lost with nothing in front. He’ll be a far better horse with a bunny to chase here. Definite chance, and in the Derby next week. $26 on offer for him in the Derby seems crazy overs.
Another horse that has progressed through the provincials is Happy Soul for Bryce Heys, former stable foreman for John O’Shea. He broke his maiden status at Goulburn two back before being given an absolute peach ride from Mitchell Bell to win over 1850m at Newcastle. One thing about this horse is that he knows where the finishing post is and that he will be very strong at the end.
Selections
Ruling Dynasty (9) on top, ahead of Diamond Valores (2), Happy Soul (10) and Hauraki (3).
William Reid Stakes
The highlight for the sprinters comes around on Friday night at Moonee Valley with the $400,000 William Reid Stakes (1200m).
I’ll put Vain Queen on top. I was quite keen on her in the Oakleigh Plate (1100m), but she got no luck at all in the straight when fourth to Shamal Wind, getting held up on a couple of crucial occasions. Her trials and jump outs leading up were very sharp, and she looked outstanding on Monday in a piece of work at Moonee Valley. With better luck, she’ll take some beating.
Gary Portelli has realised that his star sprinter Rebel Dane is perhaps just a length or so off the likes of Terravista and Chautauqua, so he has given the horse a good spell and has specifically targeted the William Reid fresh. He looked very sharp in a trial win on his home track at Warwick Farm, a good indicator he is ready to win first up. His prep last time in was messy, with runs all over the shop. I like the fact the slate has been wiped and they have their minds set.
It Is Written probably isn’t the best horse in the race, but given he has an amazing record at the track, he has to go in as a chance. He ran last time out in the Oakleigh Plate and ran a very credible seventh, beaten just over four lengths. That run keeps him in the mix alone, but adding his record at the track, and the fact he handles the circuit better than any other horse in Australia, he has to go in as a place, maybe even an outside winning chance.
Selections
Sticking solid with Vain Queen (8), to beat home Rebel Dane (1), It Is Written (6) and Earthquake (13).
Mornington Cup
The winner of Saturday’s $350,000 Listed Mornington Cup (2400m) is exempt from ballot for the Caulfield Cup (2400m) later in the year.
It does look a lovely race for the old marvel Akzar, who really worked home strongly in the Australian Cup (2000m) last time out when seventh to Spillway, beaten just under three lengths in a really eye-catching performance. He finally gets a race beyond 2000m, and his last two runs at this distance saw him bolt up in the Warrnambool Cup and finish two lengths off Moriarty in the Eagle Farm Cup. Gets his chance to win.
The Peter Moody-trained Wish Come True has been really good in two runs back from a spell. He resumed in the Kilmore Cup (1600m), had support and looked home with 100m to go but was grabbed right on the peg by Self Sense, who has run well since. He then went to the Yarra Valley Cup (1950m) and again looked the winner close to home, but he couldn’t quite hold out Index Linked.
Like Akzar, he gets out to an ideal trip, and his last run at this distance saw him run fourth to Signoff in the Lexus, and that horse went on to run fourth in the Melbourne Cup.
The Tassie mare Banca Mo has to be rated as a chance. She was well backed to win the Launceston Cup (2400m) last time out, and looked home on the turn, but she just felt the pinch late and was grabbed by Genuine Lad, who franked the form last week with a good win. This mare has had good success when travelling in the past, and she loves the 2400m and a firm surface, which is what she should get, plus she looked sharp in an exhibition gallop last Wednesday night.
Selections
Going with Akzar (1), to beat home Wish Come True (11), Banca Mo (9) and Genuine Lad (13).
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