It’s that brilliant time of the year where racing jumps onto the back page of the daily paper, and Gai Waterhouse spruces her next Group 1 champion. And it’s also the start of another Star Stable season.
I had a successful autumn campaign last year, which included a second place one week.
But this year seems even tougher, with a change of calendar, a shorter season and what seems like more expensive horses. But that’s why you’re reading this blog, so I can help you make the tough decisions easier.
Starting 10
The first thing I do is look for the Group 1 races and where the money is – there are three this week (two in Sydney and one in Melbourne) and three next week (two in Melbourne and one in Sydney).
With two trades a week, it’s important to have an early tip or two for next week’s Group 1 races: The Newmarket Handicap, the Australian Cup and the Coolmore Classic.
This tip will take one spot in your starting stable, with your other two tips to come in next week when fields are out.
Ideal set up
– G1 tip Week 2 (Newmarket, Australian Cup or Coolmore tip)
– Australian Guineas tip (G1)
– Randwick Guineas tip (G1)
– Canterbury Stakes tip (G1)
– Golden Slipper tip Week 3 (G1)
– Toddman tip (G2) (Lead-up to Golden Slipper)
– Reisling tip (G2) (Lead-up to Golden Slipper)
– A ‘cheap’ horse
– Two $25,000 horses
I think the Australian Cup is the hardest to pick out of next week’s Group 1s, with a lot of NSW trainers still undecided on whether to send their horses – Chris Waller the main one.
The Newmarket should be dominated by Lankan Rupee or Terravista (both priced highly), while First Seal should start favourite in the Coolmore.
At $175,000, I’m locking First Seal into my stable, with plans to bring in my Newmarket and Australian Cup tips next week. That’s just my tactic.
The next three spots come down to your tipping ability.
Australian Guineas chances are Kermadec, Wandjina, Petrology, Alpine Eagle, Rommel, Stratum Star and Admiral. I’ve gone with Kermadec as my tip and thrown Alpine Eagle in as my ‘cheap’ horse.
Randwick Guineas chances are Hallowed Crown, Sweynesse, Shooting to Win, Scissor Kick and Preferment. I’ve gone with Shooting to Win, as I think he’ll just win this race. Go with your gut tip, however.
Canterbury Stakes chances are Catkins, Cosmic Endeavour, Sacred Falls, Tiger Tees, Criterion, Royal Descent, Hooked, Fontelina and Leebaz. I’ve gone Cosmic Endeavour – again, my tip on top.
Golden Slipper tip, there’s only one – Exosphere. I was impressed with last Saturday’s win, so it’s worth getting in now to save a trade later.
For the Toddman chances there are English, Calaverite, Giulietta, Ottoman and Fireworks. I like English, and it is one of the cheaper options.
Reisling chances are Headwater, Vancouver, Furnaces. They look the three best, and I’ve gone with Headwater.
With $75,000 left to budget, I could buy a $50,000 and a $25,000 horse, but will buy two budget horses and leave some money for next week. I’ve gone with Minnesinger and Madam Ganster – both running this week. I’m not expecting them to do too much, it’s more so I can spend money at the top end of my stable.
So how does my stable look?
Running this week
Cosmic Endeavour ($175k), Shooting To Win ($175k), Kermadec ($175k), Headwater ($75k), Alpine Eagle ($50k), English ($50k), Minnesinger ($25k), Madam Gangster ($25k).
Not running this week
First Seal ($175k – running Coolmore Classic), Exosphere ($100k – if not next week, Golden Slipper week after).
What not to do?
Don’t go for a Challenge Stakes runner, though for the record, I’m tipping Rubick. Challenge runners usually head to The Galaxy (in Week 3), which is a handicap race. It makes it unlikely that a WFA winner would go on to win a handicap at its next start.
Villa Verde won last year’s Challenge then ran third in The Galaxy. You’re better off waiting until The Galaxy (worth $400,000) to select your tip then. Instead, we’re using this spot to select our Golden Slipper tip (worth $3.5m).
Melbourne races other than Australian Guineas are also to be avoided. It’s very unlikely any winners in Melbourne will head to Sydney afterwards. From Week 3 onward the tournament stays in Sydney, and most of the horses at Flemington this Sunday are nearing the end of their summer preps.
Stable champion, trainer and jockey
Making Shooting To Win stable champion, as there is prize money and a smaller field, although it’s a tough race. I’m going Hugh Bowman and Chris Waller for trainer and jockey, which is a safe choice.
Looking for a league code?
Join Talk of the Track’s Star Stable league with the code: 192032. Be sure to visit here for all our summer tips and updates.
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