The biggest race on the Australian road cycling calendar begins in Adelaide on Tuesday, with a 149 kilometre stage to Clare. Following Sunday’s warm-up event, the Down Under Classic, we’re ready to get into serious racing.
Predictions are a fool’s errand, and the first major race of the season doesn’t give many opportunities to read the form. In such a big field, plenty can go wrong. Ok, have I covered my arse enough yet?
I expect stage one to go to a sprinter.
Although there are some small climbs throughout the stage (more of a gradual upward gradient) they shouldn’t be challenging enough to split the field, and the final few kilometres are pancake flat.
It’s hard to see the likes of Lotto-Belisol, Rabobank, Sky or Lampre letting a breakaway escape for long enough to stay in front, as these teams will all want a bunch finish.
Lotto-Belisol leader Andre Greipel’s impressive win in the Down Under Classic earns him favourite status for stage one. The big German looks in great form, and is high on confidence. He’s also supported by a powerful lead-out train that controlled the last laps of the Down Under Classic with great skill.
Team Sky were also aggressive in the closing stages, and Edvald Boasson Hagen’s sprint nearly had him over the line. However, he is more of an all-rounder than Greipel and probably doesn’t have the pure speed to beat him in a straight-up sprint. Chris Sutton will also be a chance.
Rabobank’s Australian sprinter Mark Renshaw’s form remains a mystery after an unfortunately timed puncture in the closing stages of Sunday’s race kept him out of contention. There is a great deal of interest in his transition from lead-out maestro to sprint captain; it’s one thing to get Mark Cavendish into position for launch, but quite another to actually beat him.
It may take some time (and a few races) for Rabobank’s team to gel into a winning unit.
GreenEDGE was strangely quiet on Sunday, as the team was jostled out of position in the final laps. Matt Goss and Robbie McEwen will be trying to make amends in stage one.
Goss grabbed a silver medal behind then-HTC teammate Mark Cavendish at the 2011 world road race championship, so he knows he can compete with the best.
GreenEDGE fans will be hopeful that the team’s uninspired finish on Sunday was a case of keeping their powder dry, rather than an anything more worrying.
Garmin-Barracuda’s two Australians, Heinrich Haussler and Nathan Haas, were both impressive in the Classic, and are worth keeping an eye on, but a stage win would be be a stretch first up.
Petacchi (Lampre), Bennati (Radioshack-Nissan), Rojas (Movistar), and Freire (Katusha) are all quality sprinters, but this may be simply too early in the season for them, coming from a European winter.
What else do we know? That someone at Channel Nine likes cycling enough to outbid SBS for the broadcast rights for the race. Unfortunately for cycling fans, it doesn’t seem to be the same person doing the program scheduling.
Perhaps the thinking goes that we’re used to staying up late to watch races, so there’s no need to use those second and third digital channels to show the race live or at a reasonable hour. Instead it’s Charlie’s Angels and Murder, She Wrote. Can’t wait.
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