A super day of racing at Flemington today higlighted by the Newmarket Handicap and the Australian Cup. Below is my betting preview of the card.

Race 1

Speed – Weak, on pace may be able to dictate terms
Overs – Essie’s Pride (Rated $4.00) Fine Diamond (Rated $21.00)
Unders – Anatina (Rated $6.50)

A smallish 2yo race to kick off the day and it looks a challenging task to find a winner with a variety of form to contend with. Gee I was taken with the effort of Essie’s Pride last start.

Obviously didn’t handle the Valley on debut but on the spacious Flemington circuit, she absolutely thrived. She was a mile off them when they began to sprint, but rattled home hard to grab third.

1200m is what she is looking for now and with the outside draw plus the experience down the straight, she represents great value at around the $5.50 mark.

Main danger is Montsegur, who drops right back in class and back against her own sex. She was not disgraced in the Blue Diamond and looks to be getting an easy time up front here.

My only concern is that she has been up a while but you cannot doubt the Snowden camp. Diva Dee will be storming late and look for an improvement with Fine Diamond away from a wet track.

Exotics – Box Quinella – 2 / 3 / 4
Confidence – 75%
Suggested Bet – 1 x 3 units Essie’s Pride E/W – looks exceptional value still at the $5.50/$2.50 mark.

Race 2

Speed – HOT! Off the pace will have the last crack at them
Overs – The Originator (Rated $7.50) Dazzler (Rated $13.00)
Unders – She’s A Fox (Rated $2.50)

This is an exceptional race with a number of top performing 3 doing battle. Although short, She’s A Fox is the horse they will all have to beat.

She showed during the early part of last Spring that she can has Group class ability and has recently trialled well. But at her current odds, I don’t think it represents value.

I like Angelic Light and I think the Norzita form will stand up well here. She was outstanding first up at Caulfield before being simply outclassed last start at the Valley.

The speed up front will suit as she should be able to get a nice trail in behind them. Lankan Rupee showed its ability with an outstanding Spring campaign and should be right in the finish.

The Originator has a spruik on it and commands respect. Crystal Web and Dazzler will spice up the multiples and they are both over the odds after some luckless runs.

Exotics – Play with the numbers – 1,2,4,5,6,9
Confidence – 70%
Suggested Bet – 1 x 3 units Angelic Light at $6.50 looks the play unless She’s A Fox drifts to $2.50 in which case, I would be backing that with 4 units outright and having some small on AL to place.

Race 3

Speed – Looks fair but hard to assess with lack of detailed 2yo form
Overs – Weinholt (Rated $3.50) Great Esteem (Rated $6.00) Parfuri (Rated $9)
Unders – Politeness (Rated $17.00) Rutherglen (Rated $13.00)

Arguably one of the most competitive races on the card today. I really like Weinholt to win and he represents some serious value at his current quote.

He caught the eye when he ran behind Mount Zero on debut and then came out and killed them by seven lengths at Ballarat.

Look, he probably didn’t beat much that day but the way he finished off the race indicated that he has strong ability.

Drawn a little wide but Nolen should take him straight to the front and give them something to run down.

The danger looks to be Great Esteem who was outstanding on debut behind Casquets. He looked a little lost but I loved the way he hit the line, especially late in the race.

1400m suits and I’d expect him to go back from the ally and come with one surging run. One at very decent odds is Parfuri and I’ll be having something small as a saver on this one.

Didn’t mind the debut run in Sydney when he hit line ok and gets the blinkers here for the first time. Drawn well and with Prebble booked, he comes under strong notice.

Gambling Guru is a big watch over from SA and Twilight Royale may be able to give this a shake with a different formline. Shamus Award won’t be far away and rounds out the multiples.

Exotics – Box Trifecta – 2,4,6,12,14,15
Confidence – 75%
Suggested Bet – 3 units Weinholt to win; 0.5 x 1.5 units Parfuri E/W; 2 units Trifecta

Race 4

Speed – Fair, potentially on pace favoured with the number of backmarkers in the race.
Overs – Dany The Fox (Rated $6.00) Vatuvei (Rated $26.00)
Unders – Puissance De Lune (Rated $6.50) Maluckyday (Rated $9.00)

Another strong race and I think we can find a winner here in Wall Street. I cannot remember the last time he got in so well at the weights.

I have been following him all the way through since he returned from Melbourne and he has just lacked that sprint at the end of his races.

Ran gallantly last start when he drew wide and boxed on well with the 60kg on his back. The start prior, he hit the line well behind All Too Hard.

That formline is good enough to win this and I love the fact that Arnold is wasting to get down the weight. 1600m specialist and loves Flemington. He just ticks a lot of boxes.

Dangers include the well touted Puissance De Lune who will be flying late as well as the inform (but have to carry weight here) runners in Dany The Fox and Budriguez.

Callanish is a horse I am prepared to risk here as I am not sure what to make of his runs this preparation. Maluckyday hasn’t won in a while but its last start run was very encouraging.

Exotics – Box Quinella – 2,5,6,7
Confidence – 80%
Suggested Bet – 4 units Wall Street to win; 2 units Quinella

Race 5

Speed – Moderate, on pace should look to dicate
Overs – Members Joy (Rated $7.00) Alzora (Rated $13.00) Balaclava Lad (Rated $17.00)
Unders – Norzita (Rated $1.80) Flying Snitzel (Rated $17.00)

Nortzita has come up a deserved short priced favourite after an arrogant win first up at the Valley.

All the reports had said she was forward but she was in another league when she beat Angelic Light over the unsuitable 1200m.

We will get a good guide on how that form will stack up in race two but she looks a class above these here today on the equal weight scale. 1400m suits and drawn perfectly to receive every possible run in transit.

I would like to get $1.80 for her and anything better than that is a massive bonus. Main danger is Member’s Joy who races exceptionally well at Flemington.

She had no hope last time out when Meliora dictated terms and I don’t think the jockeys will let that happen again. She is currently $2.50 a place and for me, that is some decent value.

Balaclava Lady, out of that same race, can really add some value in the multiples as the spacious track and hopefully some genuine speed will assist her claims. Prepared to risk Alzora, she may be looking for further now.

Exotics – Box Trfiecta – 1,2,4,6,9,10 or standout 1 for those numbers
Confidence – 85%
Suggested Bet – 7 units on Norzita (try and get $1.80); 2 units Members Joy to place; 2 units Trifecta

Race 6

Speed – Moderate for a Newmarket, looks to be only an even pace.
Overs – Better Than Ready (Rated $5.00) Spirit Of Boom (Rated $13.00) Satin Shoes (Rated $41.00)
Unders – Moment Of Change (Rated $3.20) Luckygrey (Rated $17.00)

The Newmarket Handicap has once again produced a quality line-up and history has shown that class will ultimately prevail. I have narrowed the field down to four winning chances.

Moment Of Change is a serious galloper and showed its quality with an exceptional second behind Black Caviar first up. I loved the way she loomed up to win and that is always the sign that a horse is in for a good preparation.

Tremendous second up and at the 1200m and is the deserved favourite.

Punters have found Better Than Ready and he looks the main danger with no weight on his back. He won the Crowley last spring at Randwick and that turned out to be a terrific form race, so we know that he does have the class the match it with the best.

Williams will need to ride him off the speed to utilise his turn of foot and I have no doubts that he will be flying home late.

Spirit Of Boom was outstanding when resuming from a short let up at Caulfield. He was in an awkward position coming to the turn but was able to hit the line very strongly along the inside.

His record indicates that he loves the big, spacious Flemington track and Prebble was very keen to stick with him for this race. My only concern is whether he has the ‘killer punch’ at Group One level but either way, he should be fighting out the finish.

Barakey is the query runner in the field. He was scratched from his targeted first up assignment in the Oakley Plate at trainer Jim Taylor has admitted that was a setback.

Subsequent to that, he was impressive in track gallops and while he might lack a slight fitness edge – he has proven in Western Australia that he oozes class.

Shamexpress worked very well during the week and is a multiples chance. Satin Shoes will be up on the speed and may be able to hold onto a placing. She has had some issues with her teeth during the week and this setback may hinder her chances.

Exotics – Trifecta – Standout 2,13,6 with 5,10,11,12,14
Confidence – 75%
Suggested Bet – 4 units Moment Of Change to win with small savers on Better Than Ready and Spirit Of Boom (E/W). I think those three hold the key with Barakey the next best.

Check out Roar Expert Justin Cinque’s live blog of the race, which will be published at 2.00pm AEDT, prior to the 3.15pm AEDT start time.

Race 7

Speed – Looks fair, potential for the on pace to dictate but every runner with should get a chance.
Overs – Glass Harmonium (Rated $8.00) Mr Moet (Rated $5.00) Niconoise (Rated $31.00)
Unders – Fiveandahalfstar (Rated $7.50) Super Cool (Rated $5.00)

Another fantastic race and it looms as a battle of whether the two 3yos, with no weight on their back, can outperform the seasoned WFA campaigners.

I am prepared to give Fiveandahalfstar another chance after its last start defeat at the hands of Super Cool. I have no doubts that it should have won last start had it no been for a rare mistake by Boss.

After getting away with cheap sectionals early last start, Boss should have tried to make it a true staying test. Instead, this Anthony Cumming trained galloper fell asleep and boxed on gamely to the line.

We witnessed in the Derby that this horse is at his best when he is rolling along up front and my speed map shows that he will be getting another pretty easy time up front.

Drawn well and Boss is good enough not to make the same mistake twice. I’d expect the money to come for the likes of Green Moon so hold off until he drifts a little to around the $7-8 mark, then back each way.

The obvious danger is the Melbourne Cup winner in Green Moon. Outstanding first up at Caulfield and this has been a target race for the Williams team. My concern is, and this is only my opinion, whether he is a true WFA horse.

Either way, he is the superior stayer in the field and will be in the finish. I am a big fan of Mr Moet and despite the wide barrier, I think he can run a big race.

Now this horse is a proven WFAhorse with both impressive efforts in Perth and Melbourne. 2000m is what he is looking for and expect him to be rattling down the outside late.

Glass Harmonium sprouts wings and Flemington and was very brave first up at Caulfield. I would not be surprised to see a forward showing from the old boy, despite a poor second up record.

Best roughie for your multiples is Niconoise, who won in track record time last start and will wear the polish of David Hayes

Exotics – Trifecta – Standout 1,4,12 with numbers 3,6,10,13
Confidence – 75%
Suggested Bet – 1.5 x 3 units Fiveandahalfstar on the each way; 2 units to win on Mr Moet; 2 units Trifecta. If you cannot get more than $7 for Fiveandahalfstar, I’d just back Mr Moet to win.

Check out Roar Expert Justin Cinque’s live blog of the race, which will be published at 3.00pm AEDT, prior to the 4.00pm AEDT start time.

Race 8

Speed – Looks fair, potentially those up on speed favoured.
Overs – Secret Liaison (Rated $8.00) Crimson Lady (Rated $15.00) Rose Pattern (Rated 11.00) Epingle (Rated $17.00)
Unders – Spirit Song (Rated $6.50) Hi Belle (Rated $6.50) Storm Burst (Rated $13.00) Gail (Rated $21.00)

When you have a $4.40 favourite, you know that this is a tough race to find a winner. But overall, I think this race is one where we can get some decent value.

The Mannersim Stakes is the best form guide and out of that race, Spirit Song, Hi Belle, Storm Burst and Rose Pattern all caught the eye and I’d anticipate that again, there won’t be much between them.

But the horse that I like is Epingle, right down in the weights with Boss in the saddle. This horse hasn’t had much luck with barriers over its career and last start it had to contend with yet another horror draw.

It went to back and hit the line very nicely behind Perfectly Stunning who its meets much better at the weights here today.

Off the good draw, I think the position up midfield and if it can repeat its first up run, I think it will go very close at a massive price.

Crimson Lady is another one at odds that I like and I think that it can also run a cheeky race.

Another horse which has had minimal luck with the barriers but despite that, she continues to run well. She was brave with the big weight against Thorn Star last time out and meets it much better at the weights today.

While she will need luck, I think she is way over the odds. Away from the other main chances, Kazanluk needs including in the quaddie after a forgivable first up run. Tough race, so go as wide as you can afford in the quaddie.

Exotics – No play here, too difficult
Confidence – 65%
Suggested Bet – 1 x 3 units Epingle each way is big value and I’ll be having something very small on Crimson Lady.
Quaddie – 1,3,4,6,10,12,13,15

Race 9
Speed – Genuine, every runner with a chance
Overs – Centennial Park (Rated $9.00)
Unders – Fawkner (Rated $4.00) Star Of Giselle (Rated $5.50) Shelia’s Star (Rated $6.00) Shout Out Loud (Rated $61.00)

Another difficult race to line-up but I am going to go with Shelia’s Star, who I think gets in very well here with the 54kg’s. She was brave last time out at Caulfield, leading them up and boxing hard right to the line.

The start prior she was an eye catcher in the Hareeba at Mornington. third up from a spell and she should be a peak fitness now. Ticks the boxes with the good draw and Dunn sticking strong.

Fawkner is a 1400m specialist and despite the big weight, he has to be seriously respected. British General loves Flemington and looks another good chance here today.

That Launay/Callanish form should hold him in good stead for this race. Centennial Park is massive overs for a horse who is used to running in strong Group company.

Flashed home first up and it would be no surprise to see him vastly improve on a dryer surface. Keep an eye on Goldoni – Hayes import who has had some support already.

Exotics – Box Trifecta – 1,3,5,9,10
Confidence – 70%
Suggested Bet – 3 units Shelia Star to win with 2 units on Centennial Park to place

DISCLAIMER: This article, and the suggested tips contained in it, reflect the opinions of the author only. The Roar reminds you to wager responsibly.