Let’s build a bank for the weekend with my racing preview for tonight’s meeting at the Valley:
Race 1
Competitive affair to kick off the meeting at the Valley and I am sticking with Vittoria to continue its winning ways. I was keen on this horse last week before it was a late scratching.
The win last start at Pakenham was nothing short of outstanding and the form out of the race has been very strong with the likes of horses such as Suspended Gem, who finished well behind this horse, coming out to win in its next start.
Second up over this journey, I would expect it to be rocketing to the line late in the piece and hopefully grab the cash.
Friday Hussy is a horse that I have a lot of time for and it has run very well since returning from a little freshen up.
Although it probably lacks the class, Baqaat stays under strong notice as he should get an easy lead here. He might be worth a small place bet if you can find some value.
Suggested Bet – Keen on Vittoria off the last start win and he should be hard to beat; small place bet on Baqaat as a saver.
Confidence – 85%
Race 2
Not quite sure what to make of this race and for that reason, I am not that keen to have a bet in it. Kinesthetic is beginning to put it together and off its last start win at Mornington, it looks the one to beat.
Surface Tension is the improver with a senior jockey onboard plus the addition of the blinkers for the first time. Twin Soul is the horse to watch, first up for the Kent stable over this distance and with Williams booked.
If it has any sort of ability and fitness, it should blow this field away. Freshwater Storm was a strong winner and will be right in the finish. Fresh Light for the multiples
Suggested Bet – Small win bet on Twin Soul – the Kent/Williams team are in form and cannot be ignored
Confidence – 65%
Race 3
Super race and I am going to stick with Cruden Bay, who was super impressive in winning its debut at Bendigo.
I loved its acceleration in the straight and it will get all the favours tonight from this mid-field barrier.
Boss sticks and I’d expect it to be the one they will have to catch late in the race. Excitable Boy has been up a while but the win down the straight last start was very impressive.
Callow sticking it a big advantage and it has arguably, the best formlines tonight. Not much between these two horses, but Cruden Bay looks to have the most upside.
Vero Beach and Judicial Rock are beautifully bred and must be kept under notice. Gracious Prospect has been all over the country and looks the best roughie for the exotics.
Suggested Bet – 3 units on Cruden Bay to win; don’t be afraid to play trifecta and first fours with it and Excitable Boy as standouts.
Confidence – 75%
Race 4
This is the most competitive race of the night and you can make a case for nearly every runner to win the race. By now, we should know how the rail will be playing. There are two horses which are massive overs.
If they are swooping, Big Chill can really give this a shake. 1200m first up last time in, it was luckless behind Love For Ransom in a race which turned out to be a very hot Spring reference.
I think he is better ridden cold and from his barrier, he should be able to get to the outside.
$11 is a crazy price who showed some class against some quality horses last campaign. I cannot believe the price of We Own An Angel. The bar keeps getting raised and this horse keeps delivering.
Outstanding with the big weight last time out behind Lonhspresso, who then came out and won at Morphettville on Monday. It has the tactical speed to sit up on the speed and may be able to take advantage of potential rail bias.
I had him rated $4.50 so the $11 on offer is incredible value. Sari, Sweetener, Summer Gem and Ephemera are all good chances.
Suggested Bet – Look for any rail bias from the earlier races and make a call to have an each way bet on Big Chill or We Own An Angel.
Save on the other.
Confidence – 70%
Race 5
I think the winner will come from the saddleclothes 1-4 and they will be the numbers in my quaddie.
Lady Melksham is a big danger but I have found her hard to catch and despite her class, she will need some luck from the awkward gate.
Dream Face is a talented sprinter who can fire fresh while Carry To Fortune is big value after a solid run in a much higher grade. . Overall, its a race I am more than happy to watch but Carry To Fortune does look the value.
Suggested Bet – Each Way Carry to Fortune.
Confidence – 65%
Quaddie – 1,2,4
Race 6
The headline race of the night and one of the toughest races of the program as I give five horses a strong chance of taking the prize. The main form reference is the Australian Guineas.
Hvasstan was super in overcoming a wide barrier and rocketing to the line late. The step up to the journey should suit.
Sheer Talent was very brave up on the speed and it continues to race well at the highest level.
Phillipi was outstanding in finding the line from an awkward spot and is another one who will appreciate this trip. Bass Strait is another horse that will eat up this trip after hitting the line well.
I also give a chance to Gerontius from a different formline, but looks a nice type.
Suggested Bet – Going for value in a tough race, Sheer Talent looks to be getting an easy time up front and the $4.20 seems the right price. Phillipi is building up to something big and is worth a saver.
Confidence – 70%
Quaddie – 1,2,3,4,5
Race 7
Loveyamadly is racing so well that it is hard to go against it here today. Broke the course record last time out, beating Avoid Lightning and Glows and you would think if any of those horses were in this race, they would be competitive.
Drawn perfectly in barrier three. Main danger for mine is Freereturn. Didn’t really come on from the back in the Group 1 last start but this horse loves the Valley and does have the turn of foot to run right over the top of some of these. $13 is massive overs.
Eight Bills has been racing without luck at the moment and must be included. Go The Knuckle and the inform It Is Written go into the quaddie.
Suggested Bet – A moderate win bet on Loveyamadly with an each way saver on Freereturn.
Confidence – 75%
Quaddie – 3,6,8,11,13
Race 8
Tough race but I am going to take a risk and go one out in the quaddie and try and increase the returns. Despite the wide barrier, I think Daybreak is the horse to beat and the $9 on offer looks to be overs with my ratings.
Forget the last start run on a heavy track and look at the form out of its first up win. Champagne Shisha has come out and won twice and Espirt Rossa won on Wednesday.
He has the tactical speed to get himself into a race and the claim for young Forbes will help. Taxi Driver and Lord Durante are both talented and should go well fresh. Reigning Lass and Magnus Reign look the next best.
Suggested Bet – Small win bet on Daybreak.
Confidence – 70%
Quaddie – 1
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