We’re right in the thick of the Sydney autumn carnival and unlike last week’s paltry Warwick Farm crowd, tomorrow’s Rosehill race-card doesn’t disappoint.
Roar expert Andrew Hawkins may not think all eight black-type events at Rosehill deserve their status, there’s a question as to whether the Canterbury Stakes should have been upgraded to a Group 1, and Justin Cinque wrote an incisive piece about race scheduling that needs to be taken seriously.
While the debates these pieces sparked were worthy and many opinions are valid, by the time the weekend comes around we want to focus on the quality racing action.
Ranvet Stakes
Over the last month or so, most racing people have simultaneously been singing the praises of this seasons three-year-olds, while at the same time decrying the depth in our WFA middle-distance ranks.
The 2013 Ranvet sees a familiar story with Victorian Derby winner, Fiveandahalfstar, deserving favouritism after his Australian Cup second in what was arguably the race of the year so far.
It’s hard to see him being beaten if he races up to that run especially as he should be able to dictate up front, although the caveat I’ll put on him is I’m not a huge wrap on Anthony Cummings-trained favourites.
Maybe I just get on the wrong ones but they always seem to fail, while a big odds winner from the stable is never far away.
Silent Achiever looks the only genuine threat somewhere near her best form, and this very genuine mare is priced accordingly.
At first I thought her fourth was a bit disappointing in the Chipping Norton but upon reflection being beaten a length by Shoot Out, who was low-flying in the last furlong, is hardly a disgrace.
Manighar was the bewildering disappointment out of the Chipping Norton, and he was never going to win from the half-way mark, trapped away back in the ruck near last for most of the trip.
It might be a forgivable run, but we’ll need to see much more from him here before declaring he’s on target to defend the BMW he won last year.
Sangster has been set a task, dropping back from the 3200m of his Auckland Cup win to the 2000m here and hopping on a plane in-between races.
There’ll be no fitter horse in the race and he’s been soundly beaten some good, in-form horses. After a horrible 2012, he looks to be back to his best.
Foreteller and Mawingo were well trounced by the three-year-olds in the Australian Cup and it’s hard to see them turning the tables, while the rest are handicappers on the Sydney Cup trail.
The possible exception to that is Niwot, who looks on track for a major race and he might fill the placings.
Racing is sometimes clear cut, as we’ll see with Black Caviar tonight, and sometimes it’s not even when it appears to be. This race looks like the former to me.
Selections: 1. Fiveandahalfstar; 2. Silent Achiever; 3. Sangster; 4. Niwot
Coolmore Classic
A typically open affair kicks off the first Group 1 of the year for fillies and mares only, and you’d have to say the entire field, bar maybe Irish Dream, is in form.
Dear Demi might be close to my favourite horse right now. She’s a gun filly which is consistently underrated and I have to put her on top again at a backable price, as I’ve done for her last two wins.
This filly is the perfect combination of class and honesty and although the margin of her Surround Stakes win wasn’t vast, she was home a long way out and won in the style of a horse with much more to come.
Jim Cassidy has developed a great relationship with her, and I think he’ll have options from barrier nine if she jumps cleanly. With even luck in transit, she’s a great each-way bet.
Steps in Time has to be the hardest to beat, even if she finished a long way down the track as favourite in this event last year.
She’s normally at her best third up, which is a warning to her rivals considering her 3.5 length second-up win in the Wiggle!
There might be a bit of pressure up front which will count against her, but she’s a proven weight-carrier in good races, and deserves to be right in the market.
Pear Tart looks to be overs at $21, especially considering her last two wins have been around that price, including the Group 1 Tatts Tiara (Winter Stakes) in Brisbane.
She’s a versatile horse who’s drawn perfectly, and has found a weight here that should see her in the finish at odds.
If Flying Snitzel can unleash her Flemington finish around the tighter Rosehill circuit off a decent tempo, she might just walk in under the care of Craig Williams. No jockey finds the winning post with greater regularity than he when in form.
Selections: 1. Dear Demi; 2. Pear Tart; 3. Flying Snitzel; 4. Steps in Time
Canterbury Stakes
It would have been great to see Black Caviar here instead of racing tonight, and if only Hay List had resumed this week instead.
As it stands, we’ve got a field of ten that includes seven different Group 1 winners, so we can hardly complain.
Rain Affair only knows one speed, so he’s sure to cross from the widest gate to take up the running, with More Joyous to settle just off the speed with Moment of Change finding a spot just outside her.
The champion Sydney mare shares favouritism with the gun colt Pierro, and Gai Waterhouse will sleep quite soundly tonight thinking that one of them should be taking the main prize home.
There’s nothing to say that we don’t already know about More Joyous, and the only bone of contention about her is whether she’s rated as an all-time great, or merely a champion of her era.
What we do know is that she’s nigh on unbeatable first-up and at Rosehill, and here she strikes both.
All of that being known I’m going with the three year old, Pierro, for a number of reasons.
He’s got the race under his belt that More Joyous hasn’t, the weight advantage he carries as an Autumn three-year-old, and he’s a bit more versatile in the run, able to take up a handy to mid-field position.
Plus, we know how hot the three-year-olds are at the moment, we see their form standing up week after week.
Add into all of this that only two horses have finished ahead of Pierro under race conditions in his career to date – All Too Hard in the Caulfield Guineas and Cox Plate, and Ocean Park in the Cox – arguably the two best horses outside Black Caviar in Australasia!
Moment of Change will keep both horses honest, and is absolutely flying for Peter Moody. He was probably left in front too far out in the Newmarket, and he was only nailed in the last shadow of the post.
Rain Affair hasn’t quite been the same horse since blowing up in last year’s Newmarket, so a lot of eyes will be keenly watching how he performs. 1300m might be a bit of an ask first-up though.
Happy Trails tends to be underrated, and can produce a very good run first up, and if Aeronautical can reproduce his career best run from the Newmarket, he’ll be hard to beat for fourth.
Selections: 1. Pierro; 2. Moment of Change; 3. More Joyous; 4. Happy Trails
Group 1 Ranvet Stakes fast facts
First run in 1903 when won by Great Scott Notable past winners include Poseidon (1908), Nightmarch (1930), Peter Pan (1935), Lough Neagh (1936-37), Bernborough (1946), Tulloch (1958), Wenona Girl (1961 and 1964), Gunsynd (1971, 1973), Hyperno (1981), Beau Zam (1988-89), Better Loosen Up (1990), Super Impose (1991), Tie The Knot (2000-01), Grand Armee (2005), and Theseo (2009-10) Manighar will be aiming to join 11 other horses to win the race twice. They are Malt King (1911-1912), Limerick (1927-28), Lough Neagh (1936-37), Columnist (1947-48), Wenona Girl (1961, 1964), Sky High (1962-63), Gunsynd (1971, 1973), Marceau (1978-79), Beau Zam (1988-89), Tie The Knot (2000-01), Theseo (2009-10) Tie The Knot was first past the post in 1999 but lost on protest to Darazari. The late TJ Smith holds the training record of 12 Ranvet Stakes winners.
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