After profitable Mooney Valley night meeting, we head to Rosehill for a terrific card of racing headlined by the Coolmore Classic, the return of Villa Verde and the clash between More Joyous and Pierro.

Race 1

Speed – Looks strong, those off the pace should have the last crack at them.
Overs – Anise (Rated $6.00) Hidden Warrior (Rated $4.40)
Unders – Hot Snitzel (Rated $4.00) Didntcostalot (Rated $7.00)

Not ultra keen on the race as I do think there is a variety of winning chances.

At an each-way price though, Anise looks over the odds and is well worth something small. I love a horse who can show good form at the specialist 1100m distance and this Peter Snowden trained mare has been able to demonstrate that in Group class over her career.

First-up statistics are good and fresh last time in she was a total forgive after meeting a wall of horses in the straight.

Off a good draw with Boss aboard, she will give us a good sight.

Hidden Warrior has always shown ability and he was able to put it all together last preparation to win some handy races. He does take on the older horses here which is a concern, but he does have the class to be fighting out the finish.

Hot Snitzel is the best horse in the race but its record racing with the big weight does scare me. Shamus’ form looks better than what it reads and is a good roughie for the multiples.

Exotics – Box Trifecta – Standout 6 and 7 with 1,5,10
Confidence – 70%
Suggested Bet – Anise is terrific value around the $8 mark and I would be more than happy to back it 1 x 2 units E/W.

Race 2

Speed – Fair at best, on pace will get every chance
Overs – Villa Verde (Rated $2.20) Diva Dee ($21.00)
Unders – Overreach (Rated $1.90)

I am a massive fan of Villa Verde. The turn of foot is has shown so far in its career has been phenomenal and despite having to contend with a 1200m first up run, she has the class to stamp herself as the one to beat in the Golden Slipper.

All the reports are strong and I would be happy to take the $2.60 that is currently on offer.

Overreach looks to be a very promising horse who killed her opponents last start.

She ran a very quick time that day and if she can repeat that performance, she will be hard to stop.

Diva Dee caught the eye last start when she was all at sea down the straight at Flemington and is the knockout hope.

I honestly don’t think there is much between Villa Verde and Overreach but at the prices, the Shaun Dwyer-trained filly looks the way to go.

Exotics – No value
Confidence – 75%
Suggested Bet – Don’t go crazy on Villa Verde because Overreach is a massive threat. 2 units on the win.

Race 3

Speed – Moderate, on pace look suited
Overs – Under The Sun ($9.00)
Unders – Le Roi (Rated $13.00)

A competitive little race and I am with Hoylonny to win. Since coming back from a spell, it has been fantastic over the unsuitable shorter trips and looks ready to peak here today.

After missing the start last time out, he ran very well on the heavy track behind Bello and that formline was franked on Wednesday in the Newcastle Newmarket.

I just hope it can settle a little closer to the speed today but regardless, I think he has the turn of foot to be fighting out the finish.

Lunayir really hit it straps on the dry ground last time out and thanks to a perfect Bowman ride, it was able to win well.

Its French form is outstanding and stepping up to this trip will boost its chances. I believe it may be heading towards some Group staying races so if it is any good, it must be right in finish here.

Single was a forgive run on the heavy going last start and will improve here. Look for Under The Sun to give a great sight at odds as he may be able to dictate the terms up front.

Exotics – Trifecta – Standout 7,9,11 with 3,5,6
Confidence – 75%
Suggested Bet – Hoylonny and Lunayir look to have the most upside here. Back Hoylonny to win with a small saver on Lunayir.

Race 4

Speed – Fair, every runner with a chance
Overs – Fast ‘n’ Rocking (Rated $5.50)
Unders – Sidestep (Rated $8.00)

This is probably the race I am most excited about today from a Slipper perspective. I am really keen on Fast ‘n’ Rocking here.

It is a horse with a ton of ability and I think it will be right in the market for the Slipper after today.

The Blue Diamond run was fantastic, coming from a long way back to hit the line strongly. There is positive mail from the Hayes camp that this horse is flying is trackwork and that the stable are expecting a big.

At the $8.00, he is well worth at each-way bet. The danger include Charlie Boy and Whiskey All Round, both attacked the line hard last start over the 1100m last start.

Va Pensiero looks a good roughie despite the wide draw.

Exotics – Box Quinella – 2,3,5
Confidence – 80%
Suggested Bet – The mail is too strong to ignore for Fast ‘n’ Rocking. He is tremendous value. 1 x 3 units E/W.

Race 5

Speed – Fair, every runner should gets its chance
Overs – Force Command ($9.00) Rowie (Rated $13.00)
Unders – Albrecht (Rated $7.50) Ninth Legion (Rated $4.00)

This is the race I found most difficult to assess. I am with two on the each way, but I’ll only be playing with small investments. I cannot believe the price of High Shot off its run in the Guineas.

It has been luckless this preparation and last start was a total forgive as it found itself it an awkward position from barrier one.

Despite that, he hit the line very well in arguably the worst part of the ground.

It has been scratched a couple of times since that Guineas run and every time, Williams has been booked to ride. That is a major push in my opinion.

Toydini was huge last start, coming from a mile back to run though the line with determination.

I am a little concerned with how well he races second up, but I feel that he has the class to match it in much higher races than this. Force Command and Ninth Legion will be in the mix late off the back of promising runs in the Bendigo Guineas.

Ashokan and Albrecht have had enough chances for mine and I am going to reluctantly risk them. Rowie is the best roughie and a must for the multiples.

Exotics – Box Trfiecta – 3,5,6,8,10
Confidence – 70%
Suggested Bet – High Shot looks the value and I’ll have something small E/W on him.

Race 6

Speed – Looks fair, every runner should get its chance.
Overs – Sangster (Rated $11.00) Niwot (Rated $21.00) Prince Cherri (Rated $13.00)
Unders – Manighar (Rated $9.00)

Super edition of the Ranvet Stakes and I think the market is spot on with touting Fiveandahalfstar and Silent Achiever as the horses to beat.

I am going with Fiveandahalfstar to win off the back of an excellent run in the Australian Cup.

He is flying this preparation and is the rock hard fit horse in the race. I loved the way he never surrenders defeat and with his tactical speed, he may be able to run them along and give them something to catch, such as what he did in the Derby.

My gut feeling is that this is what Cummings wants this horse to do. Boss has been given the flick after trying to ‘sit and sprint’ on him and the booking of Robl may be what this horse needs to go one better.

Overall, I believe the form out of that Australian Cup will stand up. Silent Achiever was massive in its first run on Australian soil this preparation, coming from a mile off them to hit the line strongly.

My only knock on her is how far back she gets in the run and whether she will be able to bridge the gap on the likes of Fiveandahalfstar. Prince Cherri is a runner I have enormous respect for after an impressive win at Canterbury.

He was wide throughout on the run but still kept coming to get the win. He has shown his best from overseas over this trip and I would not be surprised to see him be right in the finish.

Look for Niwot and Gatewood late from a Sydney Cup perspective, they can both run a cheeky race.

Exotics – Box Trifecta – 2,5,8,11,12,13
Confidence – 75%
Suggested Bet – Moderate win bet on Fiveandahalfstar with a small each way saver on Prince Cherri – knockout hope.
Quaddie – 5,8,11,12,13

Race 7

Speed – Solid enough, potentially those just off the pace favoured.
Overs – Red Tracer (Rated $11.00) Dear Demi (Rated $5.00) Flying Snitzel (Rated $6.50) Risk Aversion (Rated $21.00)
Unders – Norzita (Rated $7.00) Steps In Time (Rated $8.00)

Another fantastic race with plenty of value on offer and I’ll be focusing my bets around two horses – Dear Demi and Flying Snitzel.

Dear Demi was outstanding last start to win to win the Surround and off that run, I have her as the horse the beat here.

I love to see a horse with form over the longer trips show a turn of foot and that is exactly what she did to hold off Driefontein last start.

You could tell she wasn’t at her best and so you would expect she would have come on from that run.

Cassidy has a great affinity with her and from she should be able to get a good run from the midfield barrier. Main danger for mine and a horse which is over the odds is Flying Snitzel.

The late sectionals it reeled off last time out were incredible to beat a key rival in Norzita and the step up to the mile should benefit its chances. If it can repeat that effort, I can see her playing a major part in the race.

Benetta was brave last start after sitting three wide throughout and with a better barrier today, she has to be respected.

Norzita was very disappointing last start as odds on favourite and I would want to see her reproduce something before jumping on her again.

I am going to risk the three up the top, purely because of their big weights.

Exotics – Box Quinella – 6 / 7 / 11 / 13
Confidence – 70%
Suggested Bet – Moderate win bet on Dear Demi plus the $3.00 the place around Flying Snitzel looks value.
Quaddie – 6,7,11,13

Race 8

Speed – Pace looks strong, those off the speed will have the last shot.
Overs – Moment Of Change (Rated $3.50)
Unders – Pierro (Rated $3.20)

While the media have headlined this as a clash between More Joyous and Pierro, I think Moment Of Change is a horse which commands respect.

The Newmarket run was outstanding after missing the start and you only have to look at its sectional splits to understand the enormity of the run.

He was gassed at the 250m mark after doing a ton of work to get up on the speed but despite that, he boxed on hard to the line and refused to give in.

Drawn well today for him to come across and potentially lead. He may be unsuited at the WFA conditions, but I think the $5 is value for this classy sprinter.

More Joyous is a horse who does get in particularity well at the WFA scale. Ultra consistent mare who races well fresh (remember she was hard held winning first up last time in) and all the reports from the Waterhouse stable are positive.

There is no doubt that she is the horse they have to beat and I believe it will come down to More Joyous v Moment of Change. This may come back to bite me but I’ll be laying Pierro.

I was a little disappointed from the first up run and that run on the heavy may have taken its toll on him. Also, he does come back in distance and may be vulnerable late in the race. Aeronautical best roughie.

Exotics – Quinella – 3 / 7
Confidence – 85%
Suggested Bet – I think that MOC and MJ are the horses to play with here. If MJ hits $3.00, I’ll be having a strong win bet on her with a saver on MOC at the $5.00. NOTE: MOC has firmed significantly, so MJ looks the play for this race.
Quaddie – 3,7,10

Race 9

Speed – Looks fairly strong. I would expect those just off the pace to be advantaged.
Overs – Snitsky (Rated $6.50) Australian Star (Rated $9.00)
Unders – Senta De Noche (Rated $3.20)

Competitive race to end the card and I am with Snitsky to win first up. A loved the trial behind Tiger Tees in preparation for this and his first up record is very good.

I think a big push is Schofield hopping of a key rival in Ying La to ride this horse. Drawn well and they Ryan stable is on fire at the moment. He will be ready to win this and I feel that the $8.00 is overs.

Senta De Noche is a talented horse but this is the best field it has faced and it looks under the odds around that $2.50 mark.

Agister and Australian Star are both racing very well of late and are a must for exotic players

Exotics – Box Trifecta – 2,4,7,12,13
Confidence – 80%
Suggested Bet – 2 x 3 units on Snitsky E/W
Quaddie – 7 – confident that it can do the job