When we think of the marquee race for each state, it’s usually either a cup or a handicap.
Victoria of course has two in one, with the Melbourne Cup, the greatest staying handicap in the world. Some might say that Sydney’s race is the Golden Slipper, but for me it has to be the Doncaster Mile. Adelaide used to have the Goodwood Handicap until they foolishly changed the conditions.
Queensland’s premier race is, without question, the Stradbroke Handicap.
When we think of the Stradbroke, we think of a huge field, the speed clapped on, maybe a soft track, and a horse coming from the back down the outside to claim victory, often at odds. Something tells me tomorrow won’t be any different.
Buffering is the only obvious leader, and he shouldn’t actually have too much trouble taking up his position from barrier six. There are quite a few horses that have the ability to take up a position, and will try and do so. I fancy Streama and Famous Seamus might make their way over from wide barriers.
In a race that sees a million dollars to the winner, rarely do we see a lack of tempo. Most connections don’t want their horses dawdling along back in the pack, and would rather their jockey put them in the race. A rider has to be careful not to go too early, but some invariably do with the massive payday awaiting the winner.
When it comes to open Group 1 races this year, the winners basically fall into two categories – three year olds and imports. While I’m happy enough to leave import My Quest For Peace out of calculations, only a brave punter won’t be entertaining the younger lot, especially when that age group has a decent record in the race already.
Better Than Ready is the horse that ends up on top for me, currently $9 with Sportsbet. We might be getting a couple of points of overs due to the wide barrier, but I’m hoping he’ll be able to slot in with cover in the second half of the field.
Three of the past seven editions have been won by a three year old, and seven of the last ten winners have come through the Doomben 10,000, although it’s important to note that none won it. The Kelly Schweider colt fulfils those criteria, and meets Epaulette and Buffering 3.5kg’s better at the weights from that lead up defeat.
Once you win the Doomben 10,000, usually beating a very good field at WFA, you get weighted accordingly in “The Straddy”, and it’s too tough an ask to go back-to-back. Epaulette is a risk as third favourite and won’t be going in my quaddie.
Back to Better Than Ready, and it’s always comforting to be on a horse in a big race being ridden by a jockey who’s won it before. Craig Newitt tasted success on La Montagna in 2006, and was able to navigate to victory from gate 18, an even more daunting task than he faces tomorrow when he’ll jump from 15.
In-form older horses tend to run a good race in the Stradbroke, and while most will be looking at his younger stablemate in Sizzling, I don’t think Kelso Wood’s Belltone can be left out of calculations, especially at a price.
He soundly beat a smart field last start, and it won’t surprise me to see him as the horse sitting handy that hits the front at some stage in the straight.
Spirit of Boom is another sort of veteran horse that I like to be on in the Stradbroke at big odds. Horses like Mid Summer Music, Black Piranha, La Montaga, St Basil and Thorn Park all won this race after finishing out of the placings in the Doomben 10,000, most of them as unfavoured runners. He’s capable of pulling off one of these Group 1’s on his day, but will need to every break.
You can leave me out of Your Song at the cramped odds, as most should know my thoughts on Anthony Cummings favourites by now.
I will take Fontelina at $16 though. A repeat of his George Ryder run three starts back, beaten less than a length and a half behind Pierro, is plenty good enough to win this with all sorts of weight relief. If he goes forward and they don’t go too hard, he’s going to take some beating.
Decision Time is also a long way from the worst horse in the race, even though the $51 you can get about him suggests otherwise. He’s been racing very, very well this campaign, and is due for a win. It could well be in this.
I’ll certainly be hoping my box trifecta of the four below with Fontelina added comes up trumps!
Selections
1.Better Than Ready
2.Belltone
3.Decision Time
4.Spirit of Boom
The Derby looks a match race between Hawkspur and the filly Gondokoro fresh off her Oaks win. The girls have a pretty good record in this race when backing up, but Hawkspur has found his right form under the hands of Jim Cassidy and looks ready to go right on with it.
It should be a great battle between Chris Waller and Pat Carey, trainers that are true masters of getting the best out of a stayer. Hopefully both horses can improve off this campaign and match the likes of Super Cool and Fiveandahalfstar in the Spring.
Usanity and Honorius will be thereabouts as they always are, while the Kiwi visitor Survived ran out of straight when trying to catch Hawkspur in the Rough Habit, and may do the same again.
Mike Moroney normally has a good time in Queensland when he brings a team up, and Rhythm to Spare shouldn’t be underestimated either.
Selections
1.Hawkspur
2.Gondokoro
3.Rhythm To Spare
4.Survived
Gai Waterhouse has been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons due to the much publicised More Joyous affair, while Nash Rawiller has been something of an innocent bystander. They get to team together tomorrow with a chance to get a Group 1 win on the board in the J.J Atkins for two year olds over the mile.
Romantic Touch comes into the race off a seven and a half length win at Canterbury after incredibly easing from $2.40 to $4 in the ring. Would it be too cheeky to ask if Tom was scared off from betting on the race after recent events?
His previous win was over the smart Diva Dee, which has consistently run well in good black-type Melbourne races, so the form ties in legitimately.
Zoustar keeps getting the job done, and will have support to keep his unbeaten run going. Paximadia might be the value in the race. Vilanova appeals as a horse than can run a strong mile as a juvenile. Chris Waller might be in for a very lucrative day.
Selections
1.Vilanova
2.Zoustar
3.Romantic Touch
4.Paximadia
Without a Fight completed the rare Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup double on Tuesday as star jockey Mark Zahra went back-to-back in the big one after…
The race that stops the nation is upon us again. Every horse in the Melbourne Cup has reasons they can win, and reasons they…
Those who want to have a really big collect on Australia’s greatest race, without risking too much, have to look at the exotic bets.
While most of the attention is on Ciaron Maher and David Eustace's Gold Trip, there's no reason why stablemate Future History cannot upstage him.
Champion jockey Damien Oliver is quietly confident his Melbourne Cup mount Alenquer will be passed fit to give him a farewell ride in the…
Melbourne Cup day is here again, and it’s never anything less than exciting. The Cup itself will of course be full of drama and…
